This just in from the Big Kansan - ND Prediction

Well, my Dell is on the fritz and in the shop (thankfully, I got that extended warranty!), so you guys are getting a brief prediction this week (by the way Bob, good job on the midseason report card).
Personally, I would love to see ND come out blasting and throwing the rock all over the yard. Navy simply does not have the athletes to cover Rhema, Shark or Carlson. Unfortunately, I think Charlie is so frustrated with the running game (rightfully so) that he will insist on establishing the running game and continue to call runs. I think ND does an okay job running the ball on Saturday, but I think Navy sells out against the run and hopes for mercy from the Irish. I think the Stanford game is fairly good barometer for this game. ND plays it close to the vest and wins, but it looks ugly. Navy's ground game will suck a lot of clock and with the change in rules regarding running the clock on change of possession, etc., look for one of the fastest games in ND history (minus commercials). Unfortunately for Navy, their starting senior QB had a season ending injury and the sophomore backup got blitzed by Rutgers. That bodes well for the Irish. I think the ND defense has definitely improved as a unit over last year's version. If we had the same offense we had last year, I think this club would be a legitimate national title contender. The offense has been very disappointing. The Irish will score about 10 pts less than they should this week.

ND - 31
Navy - 17

When will the champagne pop?

The Gurus popped their champagne as they went to a solid positive 6.8 stars on the year. The 1972 Fins team will definitely have to wait at least one more week, but the Colts are in danger. I am in Chicago and heading to Baltimore to watch my Irish beat the Midshipmen. However, I have had plenty of time to study the necessary trends, stats and games. The benefit for all of you is that all the selections should be decided by tomorrow and give you plenty of time to mull it all over.

Have faith and don't worry about the wait, because upon you now are the picks for week 8:

SF @ Chicago

The 49ers get a week off to think about the demolition that is about to come their way. Chicago survived the Cards on the road the week before the bye and lost their starting safety. Lucky for them they have had two weeks to get their new safety ready for this week. SF comes to town with the 28th ranked D giving up a whopping 362 yards / game. Rex should have some fun this week.

I will take Chicago favored by anything less than 17. I don't see this one staying close at all. Last year Kyle Orton lead the Bears to a 17 - 9 win at home against the 49ers. Rex should get the Bears side of this total to at least 31...who did the 49ers piss off to get invited back to Soldier Field. I am guessing the total will be in the high 30's. I don't think you can play the total because who knows if SF will score...

"The Man" has the Bears giving 16 and the total at 42...I really like Chicago here...GuruJoe, can you talk me out of it. I wouldn't touch the total as the Bears D might score 21 themselves.

Hot Lanta @ Bungles

Cinci impressed me with their victory last week against the other cats...their D has shown up for two weeks in a row after being called soft on this site as well as many others. Maybe all those injuries are giving hungrier players a chance to play. Hot Lanta comes off a victory against my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. It was an entertaining game until OT...coming from a die hard Steeler fan's perspective. Atlanta's lines on both sides of the ball are beat up...Lehr is suspended...Abraham is out...and the list goes on. These two teams have the 19th and 20th ranked D's. Atlanta comes to town with the 6th best offense and Vick showing that maybe he can be effective passing as well as running.

Cinci will be favored by about 6 and the total around 43. The over could be an interesting play with two offenses that should be able to move the ball. I would probably stay away from the line unless it is out of whack.

"The Man" has the Bungles favored by 3.5 and the total at 43.5. The line seems low, but would ultimately stay away. The over is still interesting to me.

AZ @ GB

I would rather watch an all night marathon of Gidget than this game. Both these teams stink. Both teams have defenses in the bottom 10, with GB being dead last. The only redeeming factor about this game is that their should be points scored as neither defense could stop a run away unicycle with a flat tire.

Your guess is as good as mine on the line...I would guess GB as small home favorites. The total should be in the mid-40's. GuruJoe is there any chance you would look deeper at this total. Anyone playing the line needs to call their therapist now.

"The Man" has GB giving 4 and the total at 44.5...GuruJoe, what do you think of this total...I can't see these guys not scoring at will on each other...but I hate touching games with two bad teams...the problem is their D's are bad their O's aren't too bad.

Houston @ TN

And you thought the previous game was bad. Houston had an impressive win against a beat up Jags team. TN is coming off a bye and win against the Skins.

I am guessing Houston will be favored by about 6, which will be absurd as they shouldn't be giving anyone 6 points. The total should be in the low 40's...I wouldn't touch this game unless I hit the PowerBall on Saturday and this was the only game I could watch. Who knows how this pillow fight will end?

"The Man" has Houston giving 3.5 and the total at 42...good luck to anyone who wants to touch this one...

Seattle @ KC

Both Super Bowl teams from a year ago are struggling and may not make the playoffs. Take the starting QB and MVP RB off any team and they will struggle. Last week, GuruJoe talked me into the Bolts and the Chiefs prevailed. Damon Huard has been playing solid as is evidenced by his 5th overall QB rating (not counting Batch and Boller). I can't see Seneca Wallace doing it in this hostile environment. Last week he got thrown into the fire and didn't look so great (14/25 for 134 yards and 2 INT's. Maurice Morris meanwhile could only manage 47 yards with no Hasselbeck to provide a passing threat.

This game is very big for both teams as they need to keep pace in their respective divisions and wild card races. The Chiefs should be favored by about 6 and the total around 35. Depending on the final line, I might be jumping on the Damon Huard bandwagon.

"The Man" has the Chiefs giving 6 and the total at 38.5. I really like the Chiefs...am I nuts betting on a team that lost by 30+ points to a 2 - 4 teams two weeks ago? Seneca Wallace and no Shaun...how can they keep it close?

Baltimorons @ Aints

I don't think I have many weeks left being able to call the team in NO the Aints. Both teams come off their bye weeks. McNair has the boot off his head and looks to start. Jamal is showing his age as is Jonathan Ogden. The D, however, has been great. NO has also found out they have a D...they rank 9th overall and play inspired at home. You can tell this team wants to win for the people of NO. Brees has been playing solid...Deuce and Reggie are proving to be a formidable tandem...and the young WR's, we don't include Horn in the young category, are making plays.

I am finally jumping on the bandwagon. NO should be favored by about 5 and the total in the mid 30's. I really don't like this game at all...but NO is intriguing to me. Baltimore has only beaten SD and lost to Carolina and Denver...all their other wins are against bad teams. NO has lost to Carolina in a close game and beat Philly and Atlanta. Let's see what the final lines are here.

"The Man" has the Aints giving 2 and the total at 37. I would stay away from the total for sure, but NO is still sticking out to me...I thought this would be over a FG game...Vegas just hasn't gotten on the bandwagon yet...should we?

TB @ NYG

Did you see those Dallas QB's running for their lives? I have been on the Gradkowski bandwagon, but I would not want to be a rookie QB going into the Meadowlands with that offensive line. The only good thing is that the G-men are beat up...Arrington is gone for the season...Emmons replaces him after hurting his pectoral muscle...Osi is likely out...Tuck is also questionable and very well might not play. The G-men's high powered offense might be tested against the Bucs D...the Bucs D is climbing in the rankings as they have reached the top 15 for the first time this year. They held the Eagles #1 offense to 21 points and won on a miracle 62 yard FG.

The G-men should be favored by at least a TD and it could be close to 10. The total should be in the low 40's. If the line is less than 10, then the G-men are intriguing to me and the over could be interesting as well...let's check it out first.

"The Man" has the G-men giving 9 and the total at 41...I haven't changed my mind...both are still intriguing to me. The total is less intriguing to me than the G-men.

Jax @ Philly

The Jags keep getting beat up...and by the Texans. Would anyone have guessed I would have ever said that? The Jags are really hurt on D...Byron needs his linemen from Marshall to come and carry him around and get his ankle healthy. The Jags very well could put Garrard in at QB this week. Philly meanwhile comes home from two heartbreaking losses at NO and TB. They are starting to get healthy. McNabb made two huge mistakes that cost his team the game...that doesn't happen often.

This is a huge game for both teams as the loser digs themselves a bigger hole for playoff contention. I would put the Eagles at a 6 point favorite and the total around 44. I really like the Eagles if Garrard gets his first start and the over might be interesting. If Houston can score 30 on that beat up D, then Philly will have no problem scoring.

"The Man" has Eagles giving 6.5 and the total at 42.5. Need to wait and see who starts, but if Byron doesn't start, then you have to jump on the Eagles...right?

Rams @ Bolts

The Rams travel to SD after their bye week. They are almost at 100%. Steven Jackson is running like a stud and Bulger is slinging all around ranking 3rd in passer rating and 4th in yards/game. Do you think all that Linehan talk about running the ball was fooling the rest of the league? The Bolts meanwhile are down two LB's and soon will lose the "best defensive player in the league"...on steroids. Rivers continues to impress and of course LT is great. The Bolts still have the #1 ranked D and the Rams are in the bottom third.

This game will be interesting. The Rams O is clicking and the D doesn't exist. The Bolts D and O are solid. SD should be favored by about 6 and the total in the high 30's. The over could be the play here...SD will score on these guys and one would presume the 8th ranked offense should score some as well.

"The Man" has SD giving 9.5 and the total at 45.5...wow!!! Did Vegas watch the Chiefs game last week? I can't see them giving a very good team 9.5 points. The total seems way too high, but I was on the over so now it is stay away...

NYJ @ Cleveland

I bet you thought you were going to see a pillow fight comment on this game huh? Well, GuruJoe said in his J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets write-up before the year that their weak schedule could surprise some people. The key to their 4 - 3 season thus far is that they have won every game that they should have won. Unfortunately, they don't seem to be able to steal any games they should not win. Guess what? Cleveland sucks. They should win this game and I don't see them losing it. The only concern I have is they are 28th against the run.

The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 7 and the total in the mid 30's...I can't believe I am saying this, but I might have to go with the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets...am I nuts?

"The Man" has the Browns giving 1.5 and the total at 38...the total looks right, but maybe a little high. Can someone please explain to me how the Browns are giving anyone points? Oh boy...

Indi @ Denver

Clearly the game of the week on a slate of several good games. The irrestible force meets the immovable object. Colts high powered O against the #1 scoring D in the league. Wow!!! Peyton looked great against the Skins last week and the running game is starting to gain some traction. Denver has been awesome on D, but calling them mediocre on O would be a huge compliment. Plummer has done nothing all year. The problem is that Denver likes to run...and Indi can't stop the run...ranking 31st.

I am guessing the Colts are small road favorites and the total in the low 40's. I hate these types of games on the line. The under might be the call depending on what "The Man" says. I honestly can say I have no clue on this line.

"The Man" has the Broncos giving the Colts 3 points and the total at 39.5...the total is a no play. I can't believe someone is giving Peyton Manning a FG lead to start the game...maybe I am drinking too much beer in Chicago...

Pitt @ Oakland

Oakland has a winning streak...it will end at 1. The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are in desperation mode. They cannot let a game against the worst team in the NFL sneak up on them. Big Ben looks like he is going to start...Joey Porter has been upgraded to probable...but they are beat up with hamstring injuries everywhere. The bottom line is our back ups would give these guys a good game and probably still be favored. The only thing that remotely scares me is that Randy Moss seems like he is starting to play again...maybe auditioning for another team...and Porter looks to be back as well...and auditioning as well.

Pitt favored by 9 and the total at 43...I love my boys here and the over is intriguing...however, our D might come out with a lot of pride...but we will score 35 at least.

"The Man" has Pitt giving 9 and the total at 39.5...I am still in shock over the Browns giving points...I still like Pitt and the over is still calling my name...I am guessing that they are thinking the Pitt D will show up with pride and keep Oakland off the board...

Dallas @ Carolina

Tony Romo: "Thanks Bill". Bill: "We have to end the controversy...you won't survive this game." The Carolina DL vs. the Boys O-line is the biggest mismatch we have seen since Japan bombed Hawaii...I don't know what they were thinking in the 40's and I don't know what Parcells is thinking here. If I were going to change QB's I may have chosen to do so against Houston or TN...not half way through a MNF game where your O-line is getting manhandled.

Carolina should be favored by at least 10 and the total in the low 40's. Anything less than 10 and I am taking the Panthers...road game on Sunday night...not smart Bill.

"The Man" has Carolina giving 5.5 points and the total at 41. I love the Panthers here...plain and simple...

NE @ MN

The Vikes continue to surprise me, but remember they played half that game in Seattle against Seneca Wallace and no Shaun. Old Man Johnson is playing well enough not to lose. The Pats meanwhile killed the Bills as expected and are beginning to roll.

I think the Pats should be favored by about 4 and the total around 40. I think NE wins this game, but I hate road favorites on MNF. The under could be interesting...now let's see what the man has to say...

"The Man" has Pats giving 2 and the total at 38.5...all too close for my liking...especially with the other nuggets out there...

1st half for ND leaves lots of questions

I am a week late, but I hope I am not a dollar short. I wanted to do a Notre Dame report card after 6 weeks, but the extra week helped me make some decisions as well. Here it goes:

QB: When you start with a team, you generally first look at the QB. Brady Quinn is a stud. He is as tough as they come. However, he has been getting the snot kicked out of him (we will get to the O-line later). I personally can’t decide if Quinn’s missing WR’s are a reflection of him or the fact that the WR’s are not making the same plays they did last year and he has no time. I will give him an A for effort, heart and toughness, but overall a B+. If he wants to be the man, then he must shoulder some of the responsibility.

RB: Walker fumbled against UCLA for the first time since his eighth grade picnic. The bottom line though is that Darius has only eclipsed 100 yards rushing twice, three if you want to count the 99 yards at G-Tech. He has played a very large role in the passing game averaging 6 catches a game with 40 additional yards a game. No other RB has gotten enough time to even discuss. Darius is a slightly above average college RB, but will never make it for long in the NFL, see former ND RB’s Lee Becton, Autry Denson, and Reggie Brooks as examples. I thought Weis would teach him how to hit the hole rather than dance into it. I think if he ever learns to ram into the line and run with confidence, he could become much more effective. He must learn that a 1 yard gain on some plays is not necessarily a bad play. Overall I give him a B.

WR: The Shark (just so you know I can’t spell his last name so I go with his nickname), Rhema and the recently emerging Grimes to me have been disappointing. While they have made several good plays, they have not made the great plays that defined the receivers of 2005, save The Shark’s last catch against UCLA. It seems to me that Quinn has been trying to throw it up a couple of times a game, but these guys are not helping him. Combine this with the dropped passes, this corp has been disappointing to me. I think I am being generous giving them a C+.

TE: Carlson is really the only none worth discussing. He has done everything asked of him. He has opened the middle of the field and made himself a weapon to consider. I do not think his rare drops are a concern. I am not sure off hand if Freemen or Carlson have more eligibility, but if both leave, this could be a weakness next year. Overall, I give this group the highest grade of A-.

OL: Saying this group stinks would be complimenting them. I think most of these guys will get a chance to play on Sunday. However, Harris gets out of his break and handles the speed rusher like a guy on Atkins in a beer store (yes I am describing myself). Santucci and Sullivan have been OK…which is a big compliment for this line. Bob Morton stinks. He allows more defenders through than pimp with a heroin addiction. Sam Young is young. I think he has potential, but he has had his problems as well. The biggest problem with this crew is that the holes exist on the right side and defenses are attacking that weakness. Overall a D is very generous for this group.

DL: Laws and Landri have been solid and spectacular at times. Talley decided to leave the team and we think it has to do with the fact that Weis was using Frome so much because he is better. Abriamari is another example of a guy who has been very good at times, but disappears too often for my liking. These guys are much more solid against the run than pass. Overall I give this group a decent C+.

LB: Grading this group is tough. I expected nothing and thought they would be horrible. They have made some plays and not been as bad as I thought. Maurice Crum Jr. has been solid, but not great, however he is undersized as a MLB. Both Travis and Mitchell Thomas have been okay. Brockinton has played and practiced so well that Weis and the staff have insisted he get some playing time. Overall, they don’t make many great plays, but don’t make many horrible plays. The problem is that this group should be making more plays. Overall I give them a C.

DB: Do I really need to talk about them? The CB’s are bad. The safeties are aggressive that often leads to them being out of position. Hard to find something nice to say about a group who is giving up 200+ yards a game. The only positive is they have made some plays when necessary, i.e. MSU. The other thing is that they have always let only one man really get to them in every game. I honestly thought the 200+ yards per game would have been closer to 300 yards…that being said, they still aren’t very good. Overall I say C- is very generous. I am not deducting due to the lack of pressure.

Coaches: I have not been shy about liking Weis. I think he is a good coach. I questioned his hiring of Minter as D-coordinator and I still wonder about it. I think Weis has not installed a sense of discipline and urgency that is needed. In addition, I don’t think he has made the necessary adjustments during a game to make a difference. If I can see it, then everyone should see the need for “max protect” on more occasions throughout the game. At the same point, I don’t think this team is near this close without Weis’ preparation. I think a B- is also very generous.

Please let me tell me what you think.

Monday Night Hangover

First I want to mention that Lavar Arrington joins the infirmary report with a torn achilles and is out for the year. Also, Osi Umenyiora left the gain with a strained hip...so they won the game, but they did not come out unscathed.

Now onto my rant of the day. The Tuna has to be hungover today, because if he thought that a guy who threw exactly two passes in the NFL before last night was going to lead his team back in this one without any practice as the #1 QB, then he must have been drinking something other than gatorade on the sidelines.

He should have put in his second offensive line. These guys are horrible. They can't run block and they can't pass block...this seems to be a problem to me. Drew took a few sacks, but most of them the defender was in his grill before he could figure out where his WR's were. I will be the first to admit that the INT in the red zone at the end of the first half was horrible and a bad decision. Let's give some credit to Sam Madison for making a nice read and undercutting the route. You might want to look at the play calling in that sequence before you crucify Bledsoe. You run the ball 3 times and get first down at the 4. Marion Barber is in the backfield...everyone knew he was getting the ball on the next play. Run a play action pass and I guarantee the TE would have been wide open.

Bledsoe got sacked 4 times and I would say one of those were as a result of him holding the ball too long. The other three were just outstanding pressure by the G-men or you could say bad blocking by the Boys. Has the Tuna never heard of max protect? Keep the RB's and TE's in to help a bad line. With guys like TO, Glenn, and Crayton, these guys will get open.

I could understand the move a little more if Tuna had brought Romo in for more than a half drive in Houston or at all in TN. Those were two blowout wins that Romo could have gotten some meaningful snaps in a game. I realize the Houston game was close for a while, but the game was well in hand by the 4th quarter. Tennessee was never in doubt. This was a huge mistake.

So, it all comes down to this: was this a huge mistake by Tuna? Has Tuna's ego gotten so big that he thinks he can't make a wrong move? Does it matter in any way, i.e. did they have a chance to win with either QB? I personally think the Tuna is hurting his legacy lately. Remember he wanted Bledsoe. I think he will stay another year because you can get new linemen in free agency and the draft to improve it. Their is plenty of talent around the team.

Gurus only ones healthy after week 7

The Gurus had another big week and brought home the bacon. We were 3-1-1 on Sunday picking up an additional 4.8 stars and bringing the total on the season to a positive 6.1 stars. Lotion went to a still unprecedented 7-2 on this site thanks to the heartless Lions of State College, Pa.

We have heard weekends referred to as rivalry weekend or showdown Sunday. This past weekend will go down as infirmary Sunday. The following are a list of key injuries that happened on Sunday:

Matt Hasselbeck will miss 3 - 4 weeks due to a knee sprain - all this after the Vikes handed the Hawks their arse and kicked me out of my suicide pool.

Mike Doss tears his ACL and will miss the rest of the year - a weak defense just got weaker.

Big Ben suffered what appeared to be a concussion and may miss the game against Oakland - the good news is their next opponent is Oakland and I think I could QB them to victory.

Gary Baxter tore both his patellar tendons while defending a pass in the first half of the game against Denver - that Cleveland defense just got worse...if possible.

Matt Lepsis - starting LT for the Broncos has a torn ACL and is done for the year...with the Broncos being so dependent on the run, this could have a huge impact on their weekly game plan.

Breaking News: GuruJoe has been contacted to come out of retirement by the GB Packers to play WR - Robert Ferguson goes down with a foot injury for the third year in a row...they went and signed some guy from Portland State...and you wonder why Favre can't do anything?

All the MN WR's that you have heard of (can you name one that doesn't have the last name, Robinson, Taylor, or Williamson?) have injuries after their game in Seattle. All look to play next week, but none will be 100%.

Some other non-injury issues:

Shawne Merrimen is facing a 4 game suspension for use of a steroid - this is a huge impact on that great D. Merrimen is appealing the suspension.

Jags DE Bobby McCray was arrested for reckless driving and possession of a controlled painkiller...maybe he was carrying them for the rest of the defense after that embarassing loss to Houston.

These are not your father's Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers

I just needed to rant a little this morning. Here are the key points for me for the Atlanta/Steelers game:

1) I hated the challenge of the Dunn TD run…it wasted a much needed timeout. I was yelling at the TV when Cowher threw the red flag.

2) I hate the 10 second run off rule (which would have been irrelevant if we had the TO) at the end of a half. I understand if you do it to stop the clock, but they clearly had enough time to spike the ball. This should be a judgment call.

3) Batch, as a veteran, needed to be more aware of the timing on the last play…he had plenty of time...i.e. it is his fault for the false start. He had plenty of time to make sure every one was set.

4) At some point, your great defense needs to make a stop of hold a team to a FG. This happened in the Cinci game and again yesterday. When the offense or special teams make a mistake, a great D helps out. These guys should quit spending their time stomping and kicking and worry about keeping the opposing team out of the end zone.

5) The Atlanta WR's suck…plain and simple…double cover Alge.

6) Why don't you try to get a FG at the end of the first half…3 timeouts left and you just created a turnover with 47 seconds left.

7) I am tired of people complaining about OT in the NFL. We didn't lose the game because of a coin flip. We lost the game for the reasons above…the coin flip should not have mattered.

7th Heaven is upon us...

It is official...the Gurus are pumped about this week. After much deliberation and analysis here are your official week 7 picks:

Carolina +3 - Two cats going in opposite directions - we are going with the upswing team - 3 Stars

NE -5.5 - NE is clicking and JP sucks - 3 Stars on the Pats

SD -5.5 - GuruJoe has convinced me Damon sucks and it doesn't matter how tough Arrowhead is - 2 Stars on SD

Philly/TB 42.5 - the over is the play here as the D's don't play much and Philly has the number one O - 2 Stars on the over

Denver - 4.5 - The Gurus don't understand this one at all...we don't care about the bye week, we care about Charlie sucking - 2 stars on Denver.

Big card with big results this week...

Week seven - oh it's going to be heaven

Unless you are "The Man" that is...the Gurus come into this week a positive 1.3 stars...Lotion is an unprecedented 7 - 1...how much longer before we appear on Fox Sports Net?

GuruJoe has gone through all the key matchups and now we breakdown every game and try to find the nuggets.

The Defending Super Bowl Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta

Atlanta gave up 250+ rushing yards last week. They have the worst passing offense in the league and the number one rushing offense in the league. One thing the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers do very well is stop the run. This doesn't look like a very good matchup for the Falcons. The Steelers love to run the ball and the run defense that I once called much improved has proven to not be so improved. The other key to this game could be the suspension of Guard Matt Lehr...he is key on the Falcons offensive line and this could be huge in pass blocking, which the line has struggled with at times.

I know the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 1.5...the total should be in the high 30's...the over could be intriguing...I like my Steelers, but would not bet them on the road in Atlanta...Vick is always a little faster in the dome.

"The Man" is giving Altanta more points...the trend is on the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers...the total is 37.5...Atlanta is averaging a mere 12 points against decent teams, i.e. teams that know what a defense is (I took AZ out of the equation). The only problem I have with this over is the run first mentality of both teams...but the Steelers are growing on me, but maybe that is just my heart.

Pats @ Buffalo

The Bills played the Pats tougher than I expected in week 1 keeping this game within 2 points. This was before the Pats were comgin together on offense...playboy Tom Brady was thinking more of his mate Branch than who he could throw the ball to. The Bills got demolished by the Bears...then they lost to the cowardly Lions...people are realizing what the Gurus have been saying for weeks...their QB is a drive killer.

I think the Pats will be favored by about a TD and the total will be in the high 30's...I hate the road favorite and don't like them coming off a bye...if they beat Cinci by 20+ on the road and now they have two weeks to prepare for the Bills...seems like a no brainer...GuruJoe?

"The Man" has NE giving 5.5 and the total at 37.5...I don't like the total, but I am still intrigued by the line. Just Punt is not very good and now people are clamoring for a change...how long before the home crowd turns on him this week? This team is definitely going in the wrong direction as the season progresses...

Carolina @ Cinci

Carolina is 4 - 0 with Steve Smith...Cinci is still reeling with suspensions, arrests, and injuries...earlier in the year, I would have given the edge to Cinci, but they lost a heartbreaker to TB last week and can't stop the run. Carolina is clicking on both sides of the ball...they gave up two fluke TD's on deflections last week...

I would put this at around a pick 'em game or Carolina as a small favorite. I wouldn't touch the line, but would lean toward Carolina...I just don't know how Cinci can keep overcoming the obstacles. The total should be in the high 30's to low 40's...who knows which Cinci team will show up...this is a stay away game for this guru...

"The Man" has Cinci giving 3 and the total at 44.5. Cinci is so beat up and on a downward trend...Carolina meanwhile keeps rolling with Mr. Smith back...I wouldn't touch the total as the Cinci offense has been less than impressive. I am leaning toward riding the Carolina train again...

SD @ KC

I have said it numerous times...Arrowhead may be the toughest place to play in the NFL...KC will not be happy after the whipping they received last week...the question is does it matter how mad they are? Maybe they just aren't that good...to me this team is looking like another 9-7 record winning at home and losing on the road.

SD should be favored by about 3 or 4 and the total should be in the low 40's...I don't bet on road teams at Arrowhead...but the over might not be a bad play...

"The Man" has SD favored by 5.5 and the total at 41...ultimately that SD D is going to scare me away from this total...we saw what happened last week to KC...

GB @ Miami

I wouldn't touch this game for anything...Joey Harrington...Favre...two D's that are not very good...if you touch this game, you need help.

Pick 'em game and the total in the mid-30's...not that it matters...

"The Man" has Miami giving 5.5 points and the total at 40...I would not touch this game as I have said before, but should Miami be giving any team 5.5 points at this point.

Detroit @ NYJ

Is Detroit happy with the first win? Will this lead to a roll or complacency? NYJ keeps showing heart and playing hard...Chad and Coles are on the same page. Can they stop Kevin Jones? All these questions and more will be answered this Sunday.

I think the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 4 and the total in the low 40's...the over is intriguing to me here, but both teams performances last week scare me a little...I would stay away from the line...

"The Man" has NYJ giving 3.5 and the total at 42.5...stay away...

Jax @ Houston

Houston played Dallas tough for a half...is that a sign that they are improving or don't have the heart to play them for a full game? Meanwhle, Jax was sitting at home trying to get healed...Stroud, Jones, Peterson and McDougle are out...Byron, Cousin, and Wiley are questionable...these cats are beat up. However, some beat up pussy cats should be able to beat the Texans.

I am guessing the Jags are favored by about 6 and the total in the mid 30's. Based on the Jags injuries and Byron's last minute injury, this is a stay away game for this guru...but can Houston's 30th ranked offense do anything against the strong Jags D.

"The Man" has the Jags giving 9.5 and the total at 40.5...too many points on a beat up team on the road...however, the total looks a little high to me...Houston is averaging 14 points/game and I can't see them getting close to that against this D...the Jags are beat up and will try to run the ball and control the game...GuruJoe, please help me here...

Philly @ TB

Philly brings the #1 offense to TB for a key NFC matchup. TB does not have the stellar D that it once had ranking 9th against the pass, but near the bottom against the run. TB meanwhile has struggled all season on offense. Gradkowski has looked pretty good in his two starts, winning this past week against Cinci. Cadillac has struggled behind the below average O-line, but seems to be getting in gear. Both teams are somewhat banged up, but getting healthier.

I am guessing that Philly is favored by about 4 or 5 and the total will be around 44. Something tells me that TB may pull this one out...therefore, I am thinking of taking the points...we need to see the line. Last week, the over was intriguing to me with Cinci and TB and it went under...I am again thinking of going over again...GuruJoe, talk to me here...

"The Man" has Philly giving 5.5 and the total at 43...I would trend to TB as their play has improved as of late, but ultimately would stay away...I am still very intrigued by this over...shouldn't both teams score in the 20's easily? GuruJoe?

Denver @ Cleveland

The Broncos cost me a perfect week against Oakland. They attempted just 18 passes, completing 11 for 102 yards. They took no chances. They were content running the ball for 144 yards and not letting Oakland do anything. Think the game plan might be the same this week? Cleveland ranks 29th in rushing offense and 27th in passing offense...meanwhile, they rank 27th against the rush. Could be another inflated line.

I still think Cleveland sucks...I bet the line will be Denver favored by about 9 and the total in the mid 30's...the under might look interesting because both teams will run, run and run some more. I would stay away from the line due to the Oakland game.

"The Man" has Denver giving 4.5 and the total at 31.5...wow...this shocks me...I know Denver hasn't been lighting the world on fire, but this is Cleveland right? I wouldn't touch the total as Cleveland may not score on this D, but Denver has gone under all 5 games...time to get on this trend...not this small...4.5 seems really small...GuruJoe?

MN @ Seattle

Minnesota comes off the bye week healthy...and they need to be for this matchup. Seattle won a key NFC West matchup on the road last week. Seattle is a notorius average road team and almost unbeatable at home. Seattle will be without Shaun, Engram and Womack. I don't think the Vikes can come across country and beat this team. I will take a top NFC team against an average NFC North team.

Seattle should be favored by about 8 and the total around 39. Seattle can score, but MN's offense is more questionable than Anna Nicole's motives in marrying the old guy...Old Man Johnson should be next on her hit list.

"The Man" has Seattle winning this game by 6.5 and the total at 41...stay away game for me, but the under is intriguing as MN can play D and can't play O.

AZ @ Oakland

If Oakland doesn't win this game, then their only other chance on the schedule is Houston. AZ should have beaten the Bears. Does that loss demoralize them or motivate them? These are the type of emotional games that I stay away from.

AZ should be favored by about a TD and the total in the mid-40's...the over might be a good play. AZ will score on the Raiders...let's see the final total.

"The Man" has the Cards giving 3 and the total at 40...the line and total seem low to me...but I wouldn't touch the line. The total however is intriguing...Oakland has scored 20 points against lesser D's (Cleve and SF)...there is no doubt AZ will score 30 is there?

Skins @ Indi

The Skins got beat by the Titans...things are getting bad. The good news is that Indi has had some major problems stopping the run. Bob Sanders is still probably going to be out. Anthony McFarland looks to play, but may be limited in the number of plays. The Skins most likely get Shawn Springs back in the starting lineup, which should help the defense. The question is whether Brunell and the offense can wake up.

The bad news for the Skins is the Colts are had two weeks to prepare for them. I am guessing that Indi will be favored by about 9 or 10 and the total will be in the mid 40's...the over might be the play. Let's see the final total.

"The Man" has Indi giving up 9 and the total at 48.5...can't touch this game...

NYG @ Dallas

In probably the game of the week, the G-men travel to the circus...the problem is the circus may have left town. TO got 3 TD's last week and their is no talk of TO this week. Dallas is the #1 rush defense. Tiki has announced that this is probably going to be is last year. Monday night in Dallas is tough to overcome though.

Dallas should be a FG favorite and the total in the mid-40's...I see a shootout here...both teams like to run first, but the rush defenses may dictate the teams to look to pass more...we will withhold judgment on this game until Monday.

"The Man" has Dallas favored by 3 and the total at 45...I don't like the line, but the total is still intriguing to me...GuruJoe?

Spoke to soon???

Week 6 had some shocking moments and then some not so shocking moments:

Maybe the Aints are for real...they showed heart, they didn't make mistakes and they actually have been playing defense...the two headed monster of Deuce and Reggie is formiddable...this win convinced me.

Philly meanwhile still is a very good team and has proven to me that they won't end up in last place in the division...the Skins have that all wrapped up. The Skins give up 178 yards rushing to Travis Henry and lose to the lowly Titans. Good thing that week 5 game against Indi scared us away. Is it possible the Titans don't suck as bad as we thought? Naaaahhhhh!!! The Skins just aren't that good...

Does anyone in Detroit know they still have a football team...well sort of...as predicted here...the Lions get off the schneid (can anyone confirm the spelling of this?)...Kitna to Williams...wouldn't you think the Bills would eventually cover that?

I spoke way too soon on that Atlanta run defense...just when you think you are seeing some improvement, they go and give up 259 rushing yards...in one game...the Cowboys and Bolts have given up just under 100 total yards rushing on the year. Fast Willie Parker could eb the leading rusher after this week...he is only 100 yards behind.

Houston played one good half...and TO played a good half as well...TO won...at least he is happy this week and everything is running smoothly with the circus.

It's official...the Greatest Show on Turf is back...the run first St. Louis Rams are done...the Rams loss to Seattle was good and bad...they played tough and it came down to a 54 yard, last second FG to beat them...the good news is that they can play with the big boys...the bad news is they can't beat them.

Seattle is still the class of the NFC West...sorry all you upstarts/surprise teams of 2006.

Bruce Gradkowski could be the real deal...the Bucs have won their first game with him at the helm and were very competitive in the other game...could Simms be out of a job when he is healthy?

The Fossil is gone...the Ravens offense has been so bad, that they felt the need to dismiss offense coordinator Jim Fassel. Billick will take over the play calling...McNair's head is a boot this time instead of his foot...I am not convinced this wouldn't be a good thing for the Ravens' offense as Boller didn't look bad at the end of last year or when he came into this game.

Meanwhile, my MVP selection, Steve Smith, is still undefeated.

KC proved itself to be not nearly as good defensively as it had been...the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers pasted them for 45 points...I knew you shouldn't put your money on Damon Huard. The thing I don't understand is why they got the ball with 6 minutes left in the 1st half down by 28 points and chose to run the ball three times up the middle...looks like everyone on the other sideline had quit.

My runner up for MVP might be Chris Kemoeatu...he replaced Kendall Simmons at RG on the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steeler offensive line and holes were opened up all day and Big Ben had all day to throw. I specifically watched him bury the KC DT on several occassions...I am starting the campaign right now.

Breaking News: The Raiders really suck...the Bronco's passed for 92 yards and still received no threat from the Raiders...this team has no heart, no talent, and no hope...I honestly can't see them winning a game.

The Bronco's disappointed me...they never buried them...and cost us a perfect record in week 6...we all know which one disappointed me most.

I am officially on the SD bandwagon...they are good...I know they beat SF this week, but they have been very good.

Finally, the Bears made an incredible comeback. You could feel the emotion through the TV...and then you could feel the game just slipping away. Not to mention the game cost the Bears one of their most valuable players...safety Mike Brown is gone for the season. This could be a huge blow to the Bears.

Across the field, Matt Leinart is going to be very good. Their O-line stinks. Edge has to miss Indi by now. I personally thought Deniss Green's post-game rant was hysterical... http://play.rbn.com/?url=nfl/nfl/open/cardinals/demand/denny10-17.rm&proto=rtsp ...this obviously cost the O-coordinator his job and the new one is talking tough...

Back in Black

The Gurus have finally made it back above the mendoza line after a huge week. We considered many wagers...Cinci over, Detroit over, Atlanta...and others. However, this week we stayed positive and consistent in our thinking. As a result, you have money in your pockets. We are now a positive 1.3 Stars on the year. If you include Lotions incredible 7 - 1 documented record on this site, it is clear there is no other place for football advice. I told you two weeks ago how important Steve Smith was to the Carolina offense. This past week I said if they win their fourth in a row with him, then his name has to included in MVP talk. What did I wake up to this morning? Mike Greenberg of the famed Mike and Mike radio show on ESPN radio calling Steve Smith his MVP. What guru has been saying this for two weeks?

I told you yesterday that the Bears could be added this evening. I have tossed this around. I have looked at the numbers. I honestly don't see the Bears winning this one by less than 2 TD's as they have every game this year, save the MN game. However, this line has creeped from 10 to 13 points in the past couple of days. At 10 I loved it. The extra three points is just enough to scare me away...I hate the back door cover.

Be happy with all the money in your pockets this week and save it for another day. The Gurus and Lotion will be here every week to add to the total.

The Power of Positive Thinking - Official Week 6 Picks

The Gurus look to go from red to black in week 6. There has been much banter, much research, and most importantly much focus. The Gurus haven't communicated like this all year. While we are fired up about the Chiefs coming to town we clearly are looking to put money in your pockets. So here are the official picks:

I personally can't believe Carolina is getting 3 points...your first 5 Star pick of the year is Carolina getting 3.

Philly/NO over 46 - 2 Stars

SD -9.5 @ SF - I hate heavy road favorites, but this one just doesn't make sense...SF will be lucky to score 10...take the Bolts - 3 Stars

Denver give what ever you want...they win by 21 - 2 Stars

Week 6 - Who is going to take their licks?

Slightly new format for this week...I am going to post my selections...GuruJoe will tell me where I am nuts and where I am genius...then we will bring your official picks by Sunday morning. Coming into this week, the deficit was reduced to negative 6.5 Stars...all I have to say is thank God the Lotion is here to keep us looking respectable...let's take a look at what nuggets we can find this week...

Buffalo @ Detroit

Pig pillow fight...not much of a football game...Detroit is horrible...they lost another offensive lineman...Roy Williams is banged up...this doesn't look good. The good news is that Just Punt Losman (BTW, I love GuruJoe for coming up with that one) and the down trodden Bills are coming to town. Spikes and Clements are hobbled...could this be the week the Cowardly Lions get off the schneid? If you can figure this one out, please let me know because we need your help at gridiron_gurus.

I imagine the line would be a pick em game after the Bills got demolished last week or the Bills as a small favorite. The total probably will be between 39 - 41...clearly a do not touch game for this guru...

"The Man" has Buffalo favored by 1.5 and the total at 40...Detroit games have gone over the number in four games in a row...any chance that happens again GuruJoe? Interesting based on how bad Detroit's D is...

Carolina @ Baltimore

To say the Baltimore offense is struggling who would be like say Corey Lidle was in a minor accident...averaging about 11 points the past three weeks. McNairs arm looks like it needs to be in a boot. Jamal is running more like Forrest Gump with the braces on his legs than after. The WR's are just not very good and apparently McNair forgot about the Wycheck days as Todd Heap has been non-existent. Their D, however, still looks very strong. The Panthers meanwhile have won every game with Steve Smith back...averaging over 20 points a game...their D hasn't been too shabby either lately giving up under 20/game. This should be a defensive struggle...

I personally like the Panthers to win this game and believe they should be favorites by about4 or 5...I just think they have too much for the Baltimorons...I am guessing this will be a low total in the 34ish range.

"The Man" has Baltimore favored by 3 and the total at 33.5...someone please explain this one to me...Baltimore has beaten no one...Carolina has won three in a row with Steve Smith...I love Carolina in this spot...both teams ahve combined to go under in 9 of their 10 games...this is intriguing, but ultimately a little too low for my liking...

G-men @ Hot Lanta

The G-men got their act together long enough to outlast the SKins and play a ball control type game last week...Hot Lanta comes into this game off a bye week with the number one rushing offense in the league...looks like the big key here is whether the G-men will be able to control the rushing attack and contain Vick...the key will be the super fast Giants DE's not over pursuing and allowing Vick to get inside them...of course, this will also hurt their pass rush as neither has been know to have a great bull rush. The Falcons appeared to get healthier in the bye week...Abraham, Gandy, Forney and others all appear as though they are going to play...the true question mark is Hartwell with his creaky knees.

Hot Lanta should be favored by about 4 and the total around 41...Atlanta's rush defense has been vastly approved this year and they boast one of the best CB's in the league...I like Atlanta in this game, but the powerful offense of the G-men is enough to scare me away...

"The Man" has Hot Lanta favored by 3 and the total at 41.5...I like Atlanta, but ultimately I would stay away unless GuruJoe can talk me into it...

Houston @ Dallas

Houston is coming off a bye week...Dallas a beating in Philly...TO is not talking to WR coach...The Tuna is done talking about TO...and I think Drew is upset about his O-line...and you thought Dallas was a good soap opera...this team is ready for prime time...the good news is that Houston is coming to town...Houston is expected to have Peek and Faggins on the sidelines...that is not good for a defense that is not very good...maybe Mario Williams will have his break out game...or maybe they will continue to regret picking Reggie Bush.

Dallas should be double digit favorites and the total around 44. I would not touch this line, though I think Dallas should win handily...just too many points for a team coming off a bye and another with the circus going full tilt.

"The Man" has Dallas giving 13 and the total around 43...if forced, I would pick Dallas and over, but ultimately a stay away game...however, Dallas has gone over every game this year...is that a trend worth putting your money on?

Tennessee @ Skins

TN stinks...they are lucky that Indi can't stop the run. The Skins have been up and down...they put up 30 points on the vaunted Jax defense then score a whopping 3 points against the Giants...nothing like the 29th ranked defense coming to town to cure that problem...Vince Young will continue to make plays with his legs, but he better start with his arm soon enough...

The Skins should be favored by about 10 and the total of about 43...I like the Skins to rebound, but I am not sure if the game in Indi was a fluke or the Titans getting heart...I want to think it a fluke, but it did just enough to scare me off this game...

"The Man" has the Skins giving 10.5 and the total at 38.5...that total looks a little low, but the bad TN offense scares me enough to stay away...

Cinci @ TB

Gradkowski moved the ball and didn't make any rookie mistakes...in fact, he looked pretty good...and Cadillac got the engines revving again. Cinci comes into this game very short handed...Thurman and Henry suspended...Jackson and Jeanty were downgraded to doubtful...remember, this is the team that has given up almost 400 yards rushing in the last two games combined...is it time for TB to get off the schneid?

I am guessing that Cinci is favored by about two and the total around 41...the over is intriguing to me as neither defense has been particularly stifling this year...personally, I think TB gets off the Schneid, but it will not be an official pick.

"The Man" has Cinci giving 5.5 and the total at 44...I don't like the line, but the over is still interesting...Cinci has gone over the past three games and TB has gone over in two games in a row...GuruJoe, help me out here...

Philly @ NO

Philly comes off another impressive win against the Cowboys. The Eagles are soaring high...scoring over 30 in the last three games. The Aints continue to impress...Deuce continues to pound away...Reggie is getting his 15 - 20 touches a game and showing why the Texans should have drafted him...and Brees is just not making mistakes.

Philly will be a road favorite by about 2 or 3 and the total should be around 43...I like the over if it is in the low forties...I won't buck the trend of Philly scoring 30...and NO should be able to put some points on the board as well...I actually like Philly, but that fired up home crowd scares me...ultimately, I would stay away from the line.

"The Man" has Philly giving 3 and the total at 46.5...forget about the line...Philly is averaging over 30 points in its past 3 games...can NO score 17?

Seattle @ St. Louis

If Seattle loses this one, then hopes of repeating as division champs would diminish...they would be 1.5 games behind and a loss on agains the leader...Seattle will be without reigning MVP Shaun Alexander. Lucky for them, the Rams defense won't be confused any time soon with that of the Bears...they are in the bottom third in against both the run and pass. The Hawks need to rebound after that whoopin' in Chicago. Branch is expected to start and Jeramy Stevens looks to get back on the field since the Super Bowl...which they lost in case you missed it...this should open the offense up a little.

I am guessing the Hawks will be favored by about 3 and the total in the mid-forties...St. Louis squeaked by GB, AZ, and Detroit in the past three weeks...I think they will learn early that the Hawks are a little better than the likes of these bottom feeders...GuruJoe, why shouldn't we be on the Hawks? The over is also intriguing to me...

"The Man" has Seattle giving 3 and the total at 44.5...I am still interested by the Hawks as the Rams victories have been less than impressive to me...the total looks about right...I would trend to the over, but ultimately would stay away in case a real team can hld St. Louis in check.

Miami @ NYJ

I guess all that heart we discussed about Chad and Coles got stabbed...or maybe cat bitten is more appropriate. The Jags stifled them all game and never let up. The Fins meanwhile continue to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year (in this humble Gurus opinion). Joey actually moved the offense decently but had two drive killing INT's...could this just be the rust from lack of action (that is the excuse I use for my wife anyway)? The problem is the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets rush defense has more holes in it than OJ's alibi...the Fins game plan to date has been to run Ronnie and keep running him...if Joey doesn't make mistakes, then this will be a close one.

The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 6 and the total should be in the high 30's...not knowing which J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets team is going to show up or which Joey will show up...that is enough for me to stay away.

"The Man" has the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets giving 2.5 and the total at 36.5..Miami is 0 - 5 against the spread this year...is that a trend worth jumping on, GuruJoe? The total looks a little low to me, but all but one of Miami's games have gone under...the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets meanwhile have gone over every game...sounds like a wash to me...

KC @ The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers

The fact that LJ looks like he is going to play aftrer nearly losing his head...literally...is amazing. The problem is that no one runs on the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers
and that means this game is on the arm of Damon Huard. The bad news for the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers is that Joey Porter, DeShea Townsend and Kendall Simmons are most likely out. The good news is that DeShea will be replaced by Bryant McFadden, who might actually be better. Kendall will be replaced by Chris Kemoeatu and that might not be a bad thing either. The O-line has struggled and many have pointed to Simmons as the biggest part of the problem. He almost lost his job in training camp to Kemo (I am very happy to have a Kemo playing). The biggest issue is Porter, because his #1 backup James Harrison is also out. I am guessing the Chiefs will run to the left often.

I thought this game would be a pick em game, but heard the Steelers are giving close to 7...I wouldn't touch this line...I can't believe a 1 - 3 team would be giving 7, but I am not betting on Huard against this defense on the road...he will quickly learn the difference between the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers and AZ and SF...the total should be in the mid-30's and I think the over might be the call, but let's see what it is...

"The Man" has the Steelers giving 6.5 and the total at 37...ultimately, I stay away from this game...

SD @ SF

I am offiicially on the Philip Rivers bandwagon...not to mention that defense...they are ranked #1 in every category...and now they face a SF line with a new left side due to injuries to Allen and Jennings...that doesn't bode well for "Small Hands" Smith...

SD should be favored by about a TD and the total will be in the mid-30's...I can't see SD not scoring at least 30 themselves, but will Smith be able to lead SF to a score...I think SD could be a play depending on the final line...the total is a stay away because of that SD defense...

"The Man" has SD giving 9.5 and the total at 42.5...this total looks way too high...in addition, I am beginning to convince myself of SD as a play...SF plays decent against mediocre to bad teams and gets demolished against good teams...why would this be any different...I would stay away from the total, but this game looks like the TN game from three weeks prior...i.e. a huge win by SD...

Oakland @ Denver

Jerry Porter suspended...Randy Moss on the trading block...no QB that can do anything...they are bad. Denver meanwhile just survived a slobber knocker with the Baltimorons on Monday night...Oakland will do nothing on the Denver D. Denver will dominate every aspect of this game...

I am guessing Denver will be favored between 13 - 15 and the total in the high 30's to low 40's...I can't see Denver not winning this game by 21...the under might be a play because we all know there is nothing Mike Shanahan would love more than shutting out the Raiders...

"The Man" has Oakland getting 14.5 and the total at 36...I would stay away from this low total because who knows what Oakland will do offensively, but Oakland is really bad...Oakland is 0-4 against the spread...that is a trend I like...I might recommend buying that half point to ensure no back door cover, but I still don't see Denver winning by less than 3 TD's...

Chicago @ AZ

Chicago has clearly put themselves as the beast of the NFC and quite honestly the NFL...the Defense has given up 30 less points than the great Bears D of 1985...Rex and team has the offense clicking. The Cards offensive line is bad...Fitzgerald is hurt...and Leinart is still the starter...I think Leinart will be a fine QB in this league, but he has not seen a defense like this ever...remember he played in the PAC 10, which has no defense.

Chicago should be favored by at least a TD on the road and the total in the range of 36 - 38...I don't see this runaway freight train stopping this week. GuruJoe, please talk me out of the over and Chicago...

"The Man" has Chicago giving 11 and the total at 39...I would not touch the over based on a rookie QB facing this D, but I still am liking the Bears...stay tuned Monday to see if it is an official pick...

GuruJoe, give us your thoughts...

Time to put up or shut up - Week 6 key games

Here are the key games that the Gurus see this coming weekend:

Seattle @ St. Louis

Seattle is a half game behind the Rams for the division lead. Seattle is coming off a much needed bye week. Unfortunately for them (and our fantasy football teams) Shaun Alexander does not look like he is going to play. Maurice Morrise and Mack Strong will have to carry the load again. Fortunately for the Hawks, the Rams rush defense cannot be confused with that of the Bears, yielding 120+ yards per game on the ground. If Noah Herron can rush for 105 yards, then this tandem should do just fine. The Hawks also appear ready to let Deion Branch get more involved in the offense and welcome the return of Super Bowl bust Jeramy Stevens. Both should aid in opening the offense against a bottom third D. This will be the Rams test to determine if they are contenders or pretenders. I am not too impressed with victories over GB, Detroit, and AZ...the Denver victory to start the season surprised me, but the Denver offense clearly hadn't gotten warmed up. This game is much more important to St. Louis than Seattle as they need this to keep their confidence as well as increase their lead. They need to knock off the defending champs.

Philly @ NO

NO has beaten one impressive victory and a whole lot of nothing...Philly meanwhile is one bad quarter of football from being undefeated. This game pits these division leaders against each other. This game is huge as NO is now beyond the cupcake portion of their schedule. The next few weeks are key and a victory at home against a tough opponent could help boost their confidence going into the stretch. Philly meanwhile hasn't beaten much better opponents aside from Dallas this past week...and I am not sure that Dallas didn't beat themselves more than Philly beating them. This game puts both of these teams in solid position for a playoff run as they will be 5 - 1 and going 5-5 the rest of the way probably will be good enough to get into the NFL second season.

G-strings @ Atlanta

The G-men and Atlanta both need this game. This could end up being a tie breaker down the line for a wild card berth. Atlanta needs to win to keep pace with the Aints and stay ahead of the Panthers. The G-men are in the most competitive division (note I did not say best) in football. Every loss in this division is devastating. They need to get their house in order and the best way to do so is winning. I ma not sure how long Vick can continue running the way he has without getting hurt. His game is much better when he uses his legs, but his long-term health definitely takes a hit, no pun intended.

Carolina @ Baltimore

I have been saying that Baltimore is the worst 4 - 0 team in the NFL and maybe ever. They have a great D and no offense. Baltimore got beat at its own game on Monday and it was a physical game. The plane had to make an emergency stop in Pittsburgh to take a guy off the plane. The team didn't get back to Baltimore until 6 a.m. This doesn't sound so good coming into a game against another very physical D. The difference is the Panthers actually have an offense that is getting better by the week...coincidentally Steve Smith keeps getting healthier. Baltimore comes into a stretch where 6 of its next 8 opponents have winning records...they are 3 - 0 against the likes of TB, Oak, and Cleve...and escaped with a win against SD and then got pounded by Denver...again a very important stretch for a team that is not nearly as good as its record.

Cinci @ TB

I know I said key matchups. Cinci is 3 -1 and coming off a bye...TB is 0-5...why in the world is this game being discussed? Well, I hate the Bungles...that is why and I want to show why they are overrated. The Bucs have showed some life of late playing Carolina and NO down to the wire. Gradkowski had a good first game. Cadillac finally got it in gear. The last we saw the Bengals, they were busy allowing teams to run all over them like a thief from a crime scene. Cinci also continues to lose players to prison and suspension (Thurman now gone for the year and Henry for 2 games). After this game, Cinci's next 5 games face 4 of the top 15 rushing teams and the Ravens, who actually play Defense. This stretch is going to be tough. If Cadillac can get his wheels moving and Gradkowski can avoid mistakes like he did during most of the Aints game, they could be in trouble...the schedule only gets tougher.

KC @ The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers

Finally, we come to my personal game of the week. Yes, the Guru brothers will be in attendance. They have a designated driver. We will be fired up. The Chiefs come in beat up with Green and Hall expected to miss the game and LJ with a sore neck. This will be the first decent rush defense the Chiefs will have faced (save maybe Denver). Huard has looked good, but it has been against AZ and SF. I don't expect him to maintain that level of play this weekend. KC needs this game to keep pace in the AFC West. Now onto the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers...Big Ben has looked more like Gentle Ben than his former Super Bowl winning self. The O-line got beat up badly at SD by Jamal Williams. The WR's can't catch a cold. Joey Porter needs to be shot in the arse again. Troy needs a new shoulder. DeShea Townsend needs to grow 8 inches. And Ryan Clark needs to realize he is a safety who needs to tackle and not a battering ram. Other than that, the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are fine. Bill Cowher was mad enough to make the team show up after the SD game just a few hours after landing Monday morning. Before any of you clowns tell me the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are done, note that 19 teams have come from 1-3 records to make the playoffs since 1982...and the Steelers have done it twice. I truly believe the ship will be righted and we will get on a run. Maybe I am just an optimistic homer (not homo), but we have shown enough signs. We dominated Cinci and lost by 8 with 5 turnovers. We dominated the first half against SD and then lost it the second half. We went punch for punch with Jax on the road before finally getting knocked out...none of these losses are horrible losses. Now we need to start winning some of these games and what better time than when the Guru Brothers are there cheering them on.

Putting your neck on the line...

The Gurus have a positive week...bringing our season total to down 6.5 stars...we are getting primed for another big week as the discussions have already started...but first let's look at last week...

Larry Johnson had the scariest moment of week five as he was brought down with a face mask after a long reception. He laid on the ground motionless for several minutes. He reported to work on Tuesday wit a sore neck...good for the Chiefs bad for my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Larry Fitzgerald will miss2 - 5 weeks with a hammy...this offense keeps getting scarier...Leinart was efficient and spectacular at times...Bryant Johnson didn't help by dropping a pass in the endzone. Overall, their O-line still stinks, but Leinart looked good.

I told you JP sucked and they would lose big...this is the kind of loss that could wear on for weeks...they were decimated...luckily, they face the Lions this week...

Chicago is the team to beat right now...as long as Grossman still guides the team the way he has, they will be tough to beat...they do it all...like a $2 whore...the defend, run and pass...this team is for real.

Poor Brett...in FG range and he fumbles the ball...is there anyone in GB that doesn't want Brett traded or to retire to hand the reigns over to Rogers? Come on...let me hear from you...you need to find out what the youngster can do...you are not making the playoffs any time soon if you don't...BTW, how has Koren stayed sober in GB...there is nothing to do there but drink...trust me I have been there several times and I know...

The Colts almost gave away the easiset game on their schedule...I guess they thought TN sucked too...and they do, but you still must show up and play...and more importantly tackle someone...this team will not be in the Super Bowl until that D gets in shape...

Vince clearly wasn't given anything to prove anything in this game...run...run...and then run some more...that was the game plan...BTW, speaking of necks...is that Coach Fisher's neck I see on the chopping block? I don't know why, but it appears he might be in danger.

Old Man Johnson and the Purple People Eaters escaped an almost second embarassing loss...this team better get on track offensively...the D has been solid, but the Old Man has done nothing...may be it is time for him to go to sea...(get it...Old Man and the Sea??)

The Lions I think are trying to get into the Brady Quinn bowl...not sure they can beat Oakland though...this team had a horrible draft...a horrible decade...hell, I'll go as far as say existence...I want to know who Matt Millen has pictures of...and I want to see them...

The Fins get my award thus far for the biggest disappointment...you knew TN, Oak, GB, Det., and Cleve were going to be bad...but this team is horrible. Their one victory came against the worse Titans, by 3 points...I guess I got caught up in the Daunte hype...

The Pats keep getting it done Sweatshirt Bill has the team believing...still...I still don't understand letting Branch go, but I am only a blogger...

Reggie picked a fine time to score his first TD...are the Saints for real? The combined record of the teams they have beaten are 5 - 13...we will find out soon as they face Philly, Baltimore, Pitt, Cinci, Atlanta...500 is not out of the quesiton, but I still wouldn't bet on seeing them in the post season.

Gradkowski looked decent in his debut...good enough to wonder if Simms will definitely get the job upon his return to health...Cadillac also found his form from last year...maybe this is starting to turn around in TB...probably too late in that division for a playoff run though...

The Skns good fortune on offense finally halted...the G-men just outmanned them this past weekend...of course, this is no surprise based on the past...that just means the Skins will win by 20 in Washington...you heard it hear first...neither team did much offensively...

This just in: Cleveland sucks...The Panthers won again with Steve Smith in the lineup...he is getting real close to getting my MVP vote...although I don't have one...I was a little shocked that the Cleveland D played so well...but that offense is horrible...I am just not convinced that Charlie Frye, even with a better supporting cast, will be any good in this league...

This just in: The Raiders swallow...well they have to do something worse than Cleveland...they have no D...their O is horrible...they have no heart...their star is starting to rumble...the next earthquake in CA might be in Oakland...SF, like most other teams looked good agaisnt them...and remember they were coming off a 40 point shut out by the Chiefs...yikes...

What is green and white with holes all over it? Yep, the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets run defense...how do you give up 140 yards passing and lose by 40? Throw three INT's then lay down...Chad had his worst outing of the season...but that seems to happen alot against Jax...Anyone wonder how the Jax D will do without Peterson? How many more blows can this team take before it crumbles?

The circus is over...and this game looked like one...fumble, blocked kicks, int's oh my...I am going to give credit where it is due...GuruJoe said that Drew can win or lose any game...and that he did...I know the O-line has more holes in it that a druggies right arm, but he is a veteran and should not make those mistakes...I also want to throw a little props out to Marion Barber who was the only Comboy that didn't give up on the play and tried to tackle Lito...TO looked like he was going to implode...the time bomb is ticking...poor WR coach...

Don't look now, but Philly has a commanding lead in the NFC Beast...I told you this team would come back...it has done even better than I expected.

My poor Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers...Big Ben keeps making mistakes...the O-line has decided it doesn't want to block...and the WR's stink...the D played ok, but still could not get a game changing play or stop...I am the ultimate optimist and believe they will bounce back and make the playoffs, but they better start this week...

Mr. Rivers, I apologize...you aren't as bad as I thought. You are ready for prime time...yes, that is my tail between my legs...the SD D is very good...I am putting these guys on the dangerous team list, but I am still not completely a believer...

Denver just asked Ray Lewis and the Ravens: who's your daddy? The Broncos kicked them in the mouth...then stomped on their head...then peed on them...tight defensive battle and finally Air McNair couldn't pull off the comeback...great defensive game...

Week 5 $$$$ - here it is

Carolina - 7.5 - 2 Stars
Bears - 10 - 4 Stars - lead pipe lock
Dallas +2 - 2 Stars

See the other write-up for the details...

Note: the Carolina line was -7.5 when I finally put the pick in...

NFL Week 5

No, it is not Monday morning while you make the drive to freedom, it is the weekly write-up…I just couldn't be satisfied with a positive week as I had to add the over in Philly/GB…of course, there are numerous reasons it should have hit, but it didn't…there numerous reasons MN should have won at Buffalo, but they didn't…we don't make excuses…we usually make money…we are now down…10.3 stars on the year…believe it or not, this will become positive before it is all said and done...

Miami @ NE

Boy is Miami bad…they squeeze…and yes it was a tighter squeeze than a baby through coming into this world…by TN at home…they lose to Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Houston…the combined record of these teams is well below 500…they can't run…Daunte can barely get the ball to Ronnie Brown to hand it off…meanwhile, every had a knife stuck in NE and all they do is go on the road and kick the snot out of the Bungles…not looking good for Miami…

NE should be favored by more than a TD and the total should be in the high 30's…if NE is favored by less than a TD, then we definitely will look at this one further…

"The Man" has NE giving 9.5 and the total at 37…this is just too many points in a division rivalry game…

GuruJoe: Miami is horrible, Dante has a sore shoulder and they have no OL. NE should be able to run on them and kill Dante but 9.5 is alot of points as Saban wants to show his mentor something. Intriguing indeed but too close.

TB @ NO

TB has to throw Gradkowski into the fire…he won the backup job early in training camp as he impressed Chuckie (aka Gruden). To top it off, Kenyatta Walker gets placed on IR…and this O-line wasn't too good before that…it could be a long day for Bruce…NO meanwhile continues to surprise somewhat. We thought they had enough talent on offense to compete, but their D has been better than expected. I still don't see them making the playoff, but this win will put them at 4 - 1 with a shot…after this home game though the schedule gets a lot more difficult.

NO will be favored by about 5 - 7…you can't touch this game based on the new QB…could he actually be better than Simms? The total will be in the mid-30's…I would like to see what Bruce can do before I start taking the Bucs…or going against them

"The Man" has NO favored by 6.5 and the total at 35…I think NO probably covers this one, but Bruce may be ready to show he belongs in the NFL…stay away...

Skins @ NYG

Skins have played a couple of nice games in a row…is it coincidence that Portis has been healthy in these games? I think not…Brunell has also learned the value of finding Santana Moss again and again and again…NYG meanwhile is facing some internal turmoil…everyone hates Coughlin…Shockey is a big mouth…Burress has no heart…Emmons is out, which will make stopping Portis that much harder. This game is a big divisional game…and huge in the standings as the G-men don't want to go to 1 - 3 and the Skins would prefer to be 3 - 2 than the opposite…

I am guessing the G-men will be a small favorite and the total will be in the low 40's…the over is intriguing here as both teams can score…and neither can cover the pass…I think I said this on Monday too…and damnit I should have won…

"The Man" has the G-spots giving 4.5 and the total at 45.5…4.5 points seems like a lot of points to be giving in a division game, without your starting LB, with your team hating your coach, and it took a miracle to win the one game you did win…the Skins meanwhile spent last week getting a big win against the Jags and also getting their heads pounded in…in the last 8 games, only 2 of them would have gone over this number…also, only 2 games in this stretch have been less than FG games…ultimately, all this makes me stay away from this game...

Detroit @ MN

Detroit is terrible…again…MN is playing not to lose with lots of penalties…Roy Williams is trying to get his brother Mike on the field (yes I know they are not brothers)...with no guarantee from Roy there isn't much to say…

MN will be favored by about 5…total in the mid-30's…the under is intriguing, but Detroit is talking about opening it up and getting the offense going…Detroit is giving up 28 points a game, but none of those games have been against an offense as inept as the Vikes…

"The Man" has this line at 6.5 and the total at 40.5…all of MN games have gone under this year, while 3 of Detroit's 4 games have gone over. The reason for those overs is the opponents scoring at will…Detroit is only scoring 17 points a game…and those have come lately against GB and St. Louis…I see this one staying low…GuruJoe, doesn't this total look high to you?

GuruJoe: Over 40.5 Minny and Det. Minny is average and Detroit's D is horrible. What can an average team do to a horrible D??? Wake up and tear it apart. Detroit woke up a bit on O last week and I just to worried about how bad Detroit's D is. Giving up over 30 points in 3 straight games is not a good sign in taking them with an over play.

Cleveland @ Carolina

Could the big comeback be just want Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ordered? I would say maybe, but now they have to go face the Panthers…who are starting to hit their stride as Steve Smith gets healthier every week…Carolina's D is playing very well. I don't see Cleveland staying in this one…

Carolina should be favored by 8 or 9 and the total in the mid-30's…ultimately I probably wouldn't touch it, but let's see what the line is…Carolina is intriguing…

"The Man" has Carolina giving 8 and the total at 37.5…Carolina is still calling my name as their offense continue to get on track and I am not impressed with Cleveland's lone win of the season in Oakland...

GuruJoe: Car -8 Clev - The ONLY thing that scares me here is a cheap pass here or there to Braylon Edwards for a TD. I can't see how Car doesn't win this game by 10-14 points now that they are clicking.

Buffalo @ Chicago

Go Under…Buffalo's D has been very good thus far…they are giving up an average of only 16 points a game…Just Punt will not score on the Bears who are giving up just over a TD/game…Buffalo will get nothing done on offense, so it comes down to what the Bears can do on offense…

I am guessing the Bears will be favored by about 10…and the total around 33…this game will be a 24 - 7 game…if Buffalo is lucky enough to score in junk time…the Bears want to show they are the best team in the NFL…let's see what the line truly is, but the under and Bears is very tempting on the line I have listed…

"The Man" has the Bears giving 10 and the total at 34.5 points…Chicago has beaten their opponents by an average of 21 points this season…I love the Bears here and the under is very intriguing to me…the only question is how many defensive TD's will they score…and will that throw it over...

GuruJoe: Jauron has this D playing pretty well but Chicago is the real deal. Who would have thought a year ago that the Bears would be favored by 10 vs anyone. Just Punt is going to struggle in this game. He could hand Chicago 14 points on a platter. The Bills have played NE, Miami, Jets and Minny......nobody of the caliber on either side of the ball as they are going to see on Sunday. After the sunday night victory vs Seattle, the windy city is fired up and Just Punt wont know what hit him.

St. Louis @ GB

Go Over…St. Louis has the offense working nicely…well at least for one week after giving up on the running show…I really expect Linehan to learn that you can set up the run by passing…GB is not very good…Favre has lost it…he looked horrible on Monday night…of course, it is hard to look good with no talent around you…

St. Louis should be a road favorite by 6 and the total around 45…the Rams and the over are intriguing…we shall see what "the man" has to say…

"The Man" has the Rams giving a small 3 and the total at 46.5…the Packers haven't turned the ball over less than 2 times in each of its first four games…the Rams meanwhile have been ball hawks on D…I still like the Rams and the over…GuruJoe, are we beyond talking about Favre's magic...

GuruJoe: I don't get this very much. Favre is done. This team is ready to move on but can't because Lord Favre won't step down. The Rams lost to SF but are 3-1 and keeping pace with Seattle for possibly a surprise run.....they don't want to lose a gimme and GB won't be able to stop them.

If I thought GB's offense could score I'd like this but after the monday night game I'm not sure about any magic left for Favre. Not worth the bet to me. We are looking for guarantees and Favre could put up 10 or 30....I don't bet on coin tosses and I'm not betting on which Favre shows up (still like the Rams -3).

TN @ Indi

Poor TN…Vince Young didn't look horrible…but he has nothing there…Dallas just manhandled them…I still contend that the stomping was done in hope of being suspended…why put forth the effort on such a bad team…Indi has the O rolling early…the D has not been stellar, but when you have that offense, you don't have to be…

Indi should be favored by about 17 and the total in the mid-40's…let's see what "the man" says, but I hate giving this many points, but TN has lost by more than 30 twice to much lesser offenses than the Colts…

"The Man" has Indi giving 19 and the total at 48…Indi is 3 - 1 against the spread this year and the Titans are 1 - 3…combined the over has hit in 5 of the 8 games these teams have played this year…last year, both games went under similar totals…mainly because the Titans didn't score…I would love to jump on Indi, but the dreaded back door cover scares me here and the total is just too high with that pathetic Titans offense…Indi will score at least 35, but I am not convinced the Titans will score 14…real close on this one...

NYJ @ Jax

Jax may have played the toughest schedule to date and survived thus far with a 2 - 2 record…their D has been very good (I know the Skins scored 30 on them)…Byron continues to show he is a gamer…Chad and crew have exceeded expectations thus far…their D is suspect. I just can't see them winning this road game…

Jags should be favored by about 5 and the total in the mid-30's…I don't think I would touch this game unless something is off…

"The Man" has the Jags giving 7 and the total at 37…stay away game for this guru…although all four of the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets games have gone over, they were certainly against lesser defensive teams than the Jags…and I would never go against that trend, but it should stop eventually right GuruJoe?

GuruJoe: Pennington has shown heart and Jax's D was embarassed last week. I'm not betting on how pissed they could be. 37 seems low but tough one for me to bet on.

Oakland @ SF

If Oakland is going to win a game, this might be it…Houston might be the only other chance on that schedule…Moss is talking trash on the team and coaches…this team is bad…plain and simple…SF is not very good, but they usually play with heart…last week, KC shut them out in Arrowhead…I don't think that will happen again this week…

SF will be favored by about 5…and the total in the high 30's…I wouldn’t touch this game at all…no matter how off the line appears…

"The Man" has SF giving 3.5 and the total at 40.5…I would tend to go with SF and over, but I would rather save my money for the champagne room...

KC @ AZ

The much anticipated debut of Matt Leinart occurs this Sunday…meanwhile, Damon Huard looks to get the start again this week…KC's D has been solid all year…they haven't given up more than 23…the offense has been anemic before this past week, but that was against the 49ers…AZ has no offensive line…zero…negative…do you think Edge misses Indianapolis yet?

I honestly don't know what to think of this line…I would probably put KC at a favorite by about a FG…the total in the mid-40's…with these two QB's I would not touch this game…

"The Man" has KC giving 3 and the total at 39…the Chiefs are only giving up 10 points per game…but this total looks low to me…I just can't bet on Damon Huard being able to score at this point...

Dallas @ Philly

Mommy, Mommy, will you take me to the circus? That's not the circus son, it's just TO…he is ready for the abuse…the fans were fired up last week…the Boys had fun beating up on the Titans last week…but now they will be coming to a hostile environment and a team with a lot more talent…Philly got their act together in the second half against GB, but they paid a price…Reggie Brown is questionable…Stallworth is doubtful…this adds to injuries to Hood, Sheppard, and Westbrook…assuming these guys don't play, then I don't see the Eagles being able to overcome these injuries…

I would guess it is a pick em game and the total in the low 40's…the over is very intriguing to me, but we need to see the health of the Eagles later in the week…

"The Man" has Philly giving TO and the circus 2 and the total at 44…I can't see this game not going over…Philly has given up point to decent offenses and shut down the bad ones…I also can't see Dallas losing this game…GuruJoe, please talk me out of the over and Dallas…or can't you?

GuruJoe: Philly's only real challenge was vs NYG and even they are struggling. McNabb is healthy and this team WANTS this game but ultimately McNabb can't do it himself and his Offense and Defense are hurting. Dallas has weapons on O and a strong D. Dallas should win this game outright with only 2 factors that could scare you away: revenge on Philly's side....what is that really worth once the game starts? Bledsoe....he can singlehandly lose any game if harassed. If he doesn't make mistakes, Dallas has more talent.

Pitt @ SD

The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers go to SD for a huge game…SD has beaten no one (unless you consider Oakland and TN real teams)…they just got beat by the Ravens on the road…Pittsburgh took their bye week to get Hines Ward healthy…get Big Ben a lot of reps…and get Troy's shoulder healthy…I think this will be a statement game by the Steelers…they will come in and punch SD in the mouth and win outright…I think LT is the best RB in the league, but you will not run against this D…that means Rivers must make a play…and we all know Marty won't let him…I think it is real close, but Big Ben's experience is the difference here…

SD is favored by 2.5 or 3…total should be around 34…under might be the play, but let's see the line first…

"The Man" is giving 3 points to the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers…and the total is at 37.5…I see this game as being similar to the Jax game and the SD vs. Baltimore game…I think 3 points is too many and the total is too high…this might be an added selection…GuruJoe and I need to discuss this one further...

GuruJoe: Defending Super Bowl Champs are 1-2 after two consecutive losses, had a bye week to prepare and play in prime time. Thats alot of points to give our boys but is our offense really over the mistakes? Is ward really healthy? He says no. Can the other WRs hold the ball? Is Ben over the rust? Was it rust? This still isn't a must win at this stage of the season with 5 division games left but it sure is a statement game for the Steelers. Steelers can stop the run, so can SD. I don't see Marty opening the game up enough to win by more than a FG....if at all.

Baltimore @ Denver

Go under…this game will be very similar to the Steelers @ Jax game…both teams will try to run and run often…and won't have much success…the D's here will dominate…I would be shocked if 21 points are scored in this game…check back for this one…it might be another late release to ruin a positive weekend…Baltimore is giving up an average of 8 points…Denver 10…and neither team is scoring much…Baltimore has averaged 21 points and Denver 12...

Denver will be favored by about 5 and the total around 34…I like under anything higher than 35…there is no way 5 TD's are scored in this game…let's check out the man…

"The Man" has Denver giving 4 and the total at 33.5…I think Baltimore's undefeated record comes to an end…they will not be able to pound the ball with Jamal against the Mules…the under is still looking good to me...

GuruJoe: Balt hasn't moved the ball well in 2 games. Den hasn't moved the ball well all year and they are playing one of the best D's in the league. I hate betting under such small numbers on monday night. One concern is that the defenses are so good they could score....kiss of death to the under.

Lotion coming back strong this week...

Lotion took it on the chin last week and like his Irish……has fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten in blow-out fashion. Toledo did not show up and the hometown Panthers demolished the Rockets. Well, 5-1 (83%) is still a record to be proud of and Lotion’s hard at work this week to get back on the winning track. Lotion has been very productive this year on college football totals both on this forum and with his paying customers. Time to get back on the Train………..As Always, Stick with the Program……..it is the ONLY way to make $$$$:


TOP PLAY: Wisconsin Over 42.5

Wisconsin finally found a passing game last week and amassed over 300 yards through the air. Had the Badgers been able to throw the ball at all vs. Michigan, maybe they would have pulled the upset. Lotion thinks the Badgers have the weapons to make noise through the air and look for this trend to continue. Everyone knows Wiscy can run the football…..and should be able to rush for 200+ yards in this game. Add the new found passing attack, and Wisconsin may score 43 points themselves in this one. Northwestern has a unique offense that can be very productive at moving the football. Problem is, it has not been this year. Lotion thinks the young Wildcats will get something going on offense and 10 points will be enough to push this game over the total. For those following this series over the years know that crazy things happen when these two teams get together. Expect nothing less this year and do not be shocked if Northwestern hangs around in this game for longer than expected. Let’s just hope they are matching Wiscy score for score if that is the case. Lotion’s paying customers got down on the Wisconsin Over last week. Lotion gonna ride the Badger offensive train while it remains hot.

Offense a plenty

An added play for this evening:

2 Stars on the over of 49...GB and Philly can't run...but their D's cna stop the run...both teams are horrendous agains the pass. This usually stops the clock more and makes the game longer. In addition, GB is giving up 28 points a game...Philly will be geared up at home on Monday night.

Philly will win 35 - 20...that is well over this number and it could be more with the beat up Philly secondary.

QB controversies:

How long will Daunte keep the reigns? Should Green get his job back? Leinart or Warner...does it matter? Young or Collins? Chad? JP? Any Oakland QB?

Everyone and every city loves a QB controversy...but some of these are ridiculous...Rex clearly has ended the speculation of putting Griese in...while this one is cleared up, many others are starting to heat up...

Dennis Green may have made an emotional decision after the loss this weekend in Atlanta by giving the reigns to the rookie. Kurt has not looked great, but when you are constantly getting lap dances from the opposing teams defenders it is hard to justify the change...

Does it really matter if Vince Young or Kerry Collins is the QB...the Titans will lose at least 13 games with either one of them...same in Oakland...unless Kenny Stabler is still available, don't worry about this situations either.

Chad Pennignton is coming off two seasons worth of shoulder surgery and finally looks like a winner...he still lacks the arm strength to throw it deep or the consistent out pattern, but he is managing the game...do you the the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets would like to send Ramsey back to Washington...or use that Clemons pick on a RB?

Damon Huard's passer rating is higher thus far this year than Trent Green's the past 5 years...is it time to move on? His yards per attempt thus far are 2 yards more than Trent...hmmmm

Daunte certainly doesn't look like he is going to take the Fins to the promised land as hoped...doesn't Joey deserve another chance?

Just Punt Losman has been doing just enough to keep his team in games and lead them to a 2 - 2 record thus far...would Kelly Holcomb have been able to get them to 3 - 1 or even 4 - 0...who knows...they have not been blown out...if they had a QB who could make a play instead of worrying about not making mistakes this team could be real dangerous. McGahee is a solid back and building his stats with teams begging JP to beat them...that is impressive...

I guess everyone has forgotten about Romo...and I pesonally can't wait for the circus this week with the Boys traveling to Philly...giddy up...

Stomped like a grape...this weekend

Well, the first positive week for the gurus is official...the total is now at -9.2 stars...but there will be something tonight (I know why risk the positive week)...but this was called out in the other write up...

Have we mentioned the Titans suck? If I were Albert Haynesworth, I would be praying the "I don't want to Remember These" Titans cut me...being suspended for a few games may be worth it...all in all it was a disgusting act, but this is a violent sport and emotions run high...and his team does suck...

The Skins showed me something by beating the Jags...the Jags kept coming back, but those creaky knees of Mark Brunell kept finding Santana for scores...this was a huge win for them...

NE is done...finished...they have no weapons...Tom Brady needs a big play WR...errrr...maybe the Bungles aren't that good after all...they got demolished...losing Odell Thurman for the year will cost them any hopes of reaching the Super Bowl...they were lucky to win at Heinz field and the Pats showed the world how to beat them...run run and then run some more...then go deep a couple of times to keep them honest...

If the Titans suck, then rationale would lead to Oakland must swallow...Brooks is hurt...Walter couldn't hit a barn if he was in it...and Marques Tui is on the trading block...Jeff George may be back after all...no I will not join the Cleveland band wagon, but maybe the Raiders is just what Frye needed to build some confidence...I will give kudos to the kid for pulling it out late...

You don't think McNair means anything to the Ravens? He did just enough to win...and there is no way they win with Boller in there...McNair has "it" to make that last drive happen...Rivers meanwhile played better than I expected...the Bolts could be real good if he continues to develop...watch out for next year for sure...I wouldn't want to play them at the end of this year...

Just Punt makes no mistakes and wins...I am as shocked as you...the Vikes need to start making plays instead of hoping they come...Old Man Johnson didn't help them keep the game in control this week...

We called for and got the shootout in St. Louis...is the greatest show on turf back? Jackson gets 22 carries...hey the bottom line is the strength of this team is Bugler and the WR's...you need to do what wins games...the D was a little disappointing this week as the cowardly Lions moved the ball...

Matt Leinart come on down...you are the next QB to get his brains beat in behind the Cardinals O-line and no running game...not to mention the next guy to put Kurt Warner out of work...if Dennis Green thinks he is the answer, then he hasn't watched the tapes of his line...the Falcons while regaistering only 2 sacks were in the backfield more often than Anna Nicole Smith's Krispy Kreme visits...

How many more games can Vick run for 100 yards and still stay the QB...i.e. not get hurt? Their D is what is impressing me...what will happen if the heartless Abraham ever comes back?

I must have gotten on the SF can score bandwagon a little too soon...could Vernon Davis be the reason...KC looked pretty good, but remember folks it was the 49ers...

One of the best games of the weekend was the Colts at NYJ...at least one Manning has no problem winning at the Meadowlands...unfortunately for the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets and the G-men it is not Eli...Peyton again proved why he is the best QB in football today...some day he might win a Super Bowl like Big Ben...

NO gave the Panthers all they could handle, but came up short...depending on how the season continues...it may not be too early to start talking about Steve Smith as the MVP...they win when he plays and the lose when he doesn't...what is more valuable than that?

Houston we have a problem...Daunte needs Randy Moss in his prime...he looks slow and is inaccurate...luckily I have Ronnie Brown in two leagues to keep getting the points from him dumping it off...Fins lose to the lowly Texans...that 12 - 4 prediction isn't looking so good...but how about those unders in TN and Cleveland...and don't worry Buffalo under will come in as well...

Finally, I said you can't take the NFL reiging MVP off the field and not feel the effects...I am officially on the Bears the rest of the year...there D is giving up an average of 7 points a game...and Grossman and company are looking studly...if Rex can stay healthy, this team is very dangerous...I guess the QB controversy is over...that is no fun...we will find another one to start...