When will the champagne pop?
The Gurus popped their champagne as they went to a solid positive 6.8 stars on the year. The 1972 Fins team will definitely have to wait at least one more week, but the Colts are in danger. I am in Chicago and heading to Baltimore to watch my Irish beat the Midshipmen. However, I have had plenty of time to study the necessary trends, stats and games. The benefit for all of you is that all the selections should be decided by tomorrow and give you plenty of time to mull it all over.
Have faith and don't worry about the wait, because upon you now are the picks for week 8:
SF @ Chicago
The 49ers get a week off to think about the demolition that is about to come their way. Chicago survived the Cards on the road the week before the bye and lost their starting safety. Lucky for them they have had two weeks to get their new safety ready for this week. SF comes to town with the 28th ranked D giving up a whopping 362 yards / game. Rex should have some fun this week.
I will take Chicago favored by anything less than 17. I don't see this one staying close at all. Last year Kyle Orton lead the Bears to a 17 - 9 win at home against the 49ers. Rex should get the Bears side of this total to at least 31...who did the 49ers piss off to get invited back to Soldier Field. I am guessing the total will be in the high 30's. I don't think you can play the total because who knows if SF will score...
"The Man" has the Bears giving 16 and the total at 42...I really like Chicago here...GuruJoe, can you talk me out of it. I wouldn't touch the total as the Bears D might score 21 themselves.
Hot Lanta @ Bungles
Cinci impressed me with their victory last week against the other cats...their D has shown up for two weeks in a row after being called soft on this site as well as many others. Maybe all those injuries are giving hungrier players a chance to play. Hot Lanta comes off a victory against my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. It was an entertaining game until OT...coming from a die hard Steeler fan's perspective. Atlanta's lines on both sides of the ball are beat up...Lehr is suspended...Abraham is out...and the list goes on. These two teams have the 19th and 20th ranked D's. Atlanta comes to town with the 6th best offense and Vick showing that maybe he can be effective passing as well as running.
Cinci will be favored by about 6 and the total around 43. The over could be an interesting play with two offenses that should be able to move the ball. I would probably stay away from the line unless it is out of whack.
"The Man" has the Bungles favored by 3.5 and the total at 43.5. The line seems low, but would ultimately stay away. The over is still interesting to me.
AZ @ GB
I would rather watch an all night marathon of Gidget than this game. Both these teams stink. Both teams have defenses in the bottom 10, with GB being dead last. The only redeeming factor about this game is that their should be points scored as neither defense could stop a run away unicycle with a flat tire.
Your guess is as good as mine on the line...I would guess GB as small home favorites. The total should be in the mid-40's. GuruJoe is there any chance you would look deeper at this total. Anyone playing the line needs to call their therapist now.
"The Man" has GB giving 4 and the total at 44.5...GuruJoe, what do you think of this total...I can't see these guys not scoring at will on each other...but I hate touching games with two bad teams...the problem is their D's are bad their O's aren't too bad.
Houston @ TN
And you thought the previous game was bad. Houston had an impressive win against a beat up Jags team. TN is coming off a bye and win against the Skins.
I am guessing Houston will be favored by about 6, which will be absurd as they shouldn't be giving anyone 6 points. The total should be in the low 40's...I wouldn't touch this game unless I hit the PowerBall on Saturday and this was the only game I could watch. Who knows how this pillow fight will end?
"The Man" has Houston giving 3.5 and the total at 42...good luck to anyone who wants to touch this one...
Seattle @ KC
Both Super Bowl teams from a year ago are struggling and may not make the playoffs. Take the starting QB and MVP RB off any team and they will struggle. Last week, GuruJoe talked me into the Bolts and the Chiefs prevailed. Damon Huard has been playing solid as is evidenced by his 5th overall QB rating (not counting Batch and Boller). I can't see Seneca Wallace doing it in this hostile environment. Last week he got thrown into the fire and didn't look so great (14/25 for 134 yards and 2 INT's. Maurice Morris meanwhile could only manage 47 yards with no Hasselbeck to provide a passing threat.
This game is very big for both teams as they need to keep pace in their respective divisions and wild card races. The Chiefs should be favored by about 6 and the total around 35. Depending on the final line, I might be jumping on the Damon Huard bandwagon.
"The Man" has the Chiefs giving 6 and the total at 38.5. I really like the Chiefs...am I nuts betting on a team that lost by 30+ points to a 2 - 4 teams two weeks ago? Seneca Wallace and no Shaun...how can they keep it close?
Baltimorons @ Aints
I don't think I have many weeks left being able to call the team in NO the Aints. Both teams come off their bye weeks. McNair has the boot off his head and looks to start. Jamal is showing his age as is Jonathan Ogden. The D, however, has been great. NO has also found out they have a D...they rank 9th overall and play inspired at home. You can tell this team wants to win for the people of NO. Brees has been playing solid...Deuce and Reggie are proving to be a formidable tandem...and the young WR's, we don't include Horn in the young category, are making plays.
I am finally jumping on the bandwagon. NO should be favored by about 5 and the total in the mid 30's. I really don't like this game at all...but NO is intriguing to me. Baltimore has only beaten SD and lost to Carolina and Denver...all their other wins are against bad teams. NO has lost to Carolina in a close game and beat Philly and Atlanta. Let's see what the final lines are here.
"The Man" has the Aints giving 2 and the total at 37. I would stay away from the total for sure, but NO is still sticking out to me...I thought this would be over a FG game...Vegas just hasn't gotten on the bandwagon yet...should we?
TB @ NYG
Did you see those Dallas QB's running for their lives? I have been on the Gradkowski bandwagon, but I would not want to be a rookie QB going into the Meadowlands with that offensive line. The only good thing is that the G-men are beat up...Arrington is gone for the season...Emmons replaces him after hurting his pectoral muscle...Osi is likely out...Tuck is also questionable and very well might not play. The G-men's high powered offense might be tested against the Bucs D...the Bucs D is climbing in the rankings as they have reached the top 15 for the first time this year. They held the Eagles #1 offense to 21 points and won on a miracle 62 yard FG.
The G-men should be favored by at least a TD and it could be close to 10. The total should be in the low 40's. If the line is less than 10, then the G-men are intriguing to me and the over could be interesting as well...let's check it out first.
"The Man" has the G-men giving 9 and the total at 41...I haven't changed my mind...both are still intriguing to me. The total is less intriguing to me than the G-men.
Jax @ Philly
The Jags keep getting beat up...and by the Texans. Would anyone have guessed I would have ever said that? The Jags are really hurt on D...Byron needs his linemen from Marshall to come and carry him around and get his ankle healthy. The Jags very well could put Garrard in at QB this week. Philly meanwhile comes home from two heartbreaking losses at NO and TB. They are starting to get healthy. McNabb made two huge mistakes that cost his team the game...that doesn't happen often.
This is a huge game for both teams as the loser digs themselves a bigger hole for playoff contention. I would put the Eagles at a 6 point favorite and the total around 44. I really like the Eagles if Garrard gets his first start and the over might be interesting. If Houston can score 30 on that beat up D, then Philly will have no problem scoring.
"The Man" has Eagles giving 6.5 and the total at 42.5. Need to wait and see who starts, but if Byron doesn't start, then you have to jump on the Eagles...right?
Rams @ Bolts
The Rams travel to SD after their bye week. They are almost at 100%. Steven Jackson is running like a stud and Bulger is slinging all around ranking 3rd in passer rating and 4th in yards/game. Do you think all that Linehan talk about running the ball was fooling the rest of the league? The Bolts meanwhile are down two LB's and soon will lose the "best defensive player in the league"...on steroids. Rivers continues to impress and of course LT is great. The Bolts still have the #1 ranked D and the Rams are in the bottom third.
This game will be interesting. The Rams O is clicking and the D doesn't exist. The Bolts D and O are solid. SD should be favored by about 6 and the total in the high 30's. The over could be the play here...SD will score on these guys and one would presume the 8th ranked offense should score some as well.
"The Man" has SD giving 9.5 and the total at 45.5...wow!!! Did Vegas watch the Chiefs game last week? I can't see them giving a very good team 9.5 points. The total seems way too high, but I was on the over so now it is stay away...
NYJ @ Cleveland
I bet you thought you were going to see a pillow fight comment on this game huh? Well, GuruJoe said in his J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets write-up before the year that their weak schedule could surprise some people. The key to their 4 - 3 season thus far is that they have won every game that they should have won. Unfortunately, they don't seem to be able to steal any games they should not win. Guess what? Cleveland sucks. They should win this game and I don't see them losing it. The only concern I have is they are 28th against the run.
The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 7 and the total in the mid 30's...I can't believe I am saying this, but I might have to go with the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets...am I nuts?
"The Man" has the Browns giving 1.5 and the total at 38...the total looks right, but maybe a little high. Can someone please explain to me how the Browns are giving anyone points? Oh boy...
Indi @ Denver
Clearly the game of the week on a slate of several good games. The irrestible force meets the immovable object. Colts high powered O against the #1 scoring D in the league. Wow!!! Peyton looked great against the Skins last week and the running game is starting to gain some traction. Denver has been awesome on D, but calling them mediocre on O would be a huge compliment. Plummer has done nothing all year. The problem is that Denver likes to run...and Indi can't stop the run...ranking 31st.
I am guessing the Colts are small road favorites and the total in the low 40's. I hate these types of games on the line. The under might be the call depending on what "The Man" says. I honestly can say I have no clue on this line.
"The Man" has the Broncos giving the Colts 3 points and the total at 39.5...the total is a no play. I can't believe someone is giving Peyton Manning a FG lead to start the game...maybe I am drinking too much beer in Chicago...
Pitt @ Oakland
Oakland has a winning streak...it will end at 1. The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are in desperation mode. They cannot let a game against the worst team in the NFL sneak up on them. Big Ben looks like he is going to start...Joey Porter has been upgraded to probable...but they are beat up with hamstring injuries everywhere. The bottom line is our back ups would give these guys a good game and probably still be favored. The only thing that remotely scares me is that Randy Moss seems like he is starting to play again...maybe auditioning for another team...and Porter looks to be back as well...and auditioning as well.
Pitt favored by 9 and the total at 43...I love my boys here and the over is intriguing...however, our D might come out with a lot of pride...but we will score 35 at least.
"The Man" has Pitt giving 9 and the total at 39.5...I am still in shock over the Browns giving points...I still like Pitt and the over is still calling my name...I am guessing that they are thinking the Pitt D will show up with pride and keep Oakland off the board...
Dallas @ Carolina
Tony Romo: "Thanks Bill". Bill: "We have to end the controversy...you won't survive this game." The Carolina DL vs. the Boys O-line is the biggest mismatch we have seen since Japan bombed Hawaii...I don't know what they were thinking in the 40's and I don't know what Parcells is thinking here. If I were going to change QB's I may have chosen to do so against Houston or TN...not half way through a MNF game where your O-line is getting manhandled.
Carolina should be favored by at least 10 and the total in the low 40's. Anything less than 10 and I am taking the Panthers...road game on Sunday night...not smart Bill.
"The Man" has Carolina giving 5.5 points and the total at 41. I love the Panthers here...plain and simple...
NE @ MN
The Vikes continue to surprise me, but remember they played half that game in Seattle against Seneca Wallace and no Shaun. Old Man Johnson is playing well enough not to lose. The Pats meanwhile killed the Bills as expected and are beginning to roll.
I think the Pats should be favored by about 4 and the total around 40. I think NE wins this game, but I hate road favorites on MNF. The under could be interesting...now let's see what the man has to say...
"The Man" has Pats giving 2 and the total at 38.5...all too close for my liking...especially with the other nuggets out there...
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