Week 6 - Who is going to take their licks?

Slightly new format for this week...I am going to post my selections...GuruJoe will tell me where I am nuts and where I am genius...then we will bring your official picks by Sunday morning. Coming into this week, the deficit was reduced to negative 6.5 Stars...all I have to say is thank God the Lotion is here to keep us looking respectable...let's take a look at what nuggets we can find this week...

Buffalo @ Detroit

Pig pillow fight...not much of a football game...Detroit is horrible...they lost another offensive lineman...Roy Williams is banged up...this doesn't look good. The good news is that Just Punt Losman (BTW, I love GuruJoe for coming up with that one) and the down trodden Bills are coming to town. Spikes and Clements are hobbled...could this be the week the Cowardly Lions get off the schneid? If you can figure this one out, please let me know because we need your help at gridiron_gurus.

I imagine the line would be a pick em game after the Bills got demolished last week or the Bills as a small favorite. The total probably will be between 39 - 41...clearly a do not touch game for this guru...

"The Man" has Buffalo favored by 1.5 and the total at 40...Detroit games have gone over the number in four games in a row...any chance that happens again GuruJoe? Interesting based on how bad Detroit's D is...

Carolina @ Baltimore

To say the Baltimore offense is struggling who would be like say Corey Lidle was in a minor accident...averaging about 11 points the past three weeks. McNairs arm looks like it needs to be in a boot. Jamal is running more like Forrest Gump with the braces on his legs than after. The WR's are just not very good and apparently McNair forgot about the Wycheck days as Todd Heap has been non-existent. Their D, however, still looks very strong. The Panthers meanwhile have won every game with Steve Smith back...averaging over 20 points a game...their D hasn't been too shabby either lately giving up under 20/game. This should be a defensive struggle...

I personally like the Panthers to win this game and believe they should be favorites by about4 or 5...I just think they have too much for the Baltimorons...I am guessing this will be a low total in the 34ish range.

"The Man" has Baltimore favored by 3 and the total at 33.5...someone please explain this one to me...Baltimore has beaten no one...Carolina has won three in a row with Steve Smith...I love Carolina in this spot...both teams ahve combined to go under in 9 of their 10 games...this is intriguing, but ultimately a little too low for my liking...

G-men @ Hot Lanta

The G-men got their act together long enough to outlast the SKins and play a ball control type game last week...Hot Lanta comes into this game off a bye week with the number one rushing offense in the league...looks like the big key here is whether the G-men will be able to control the rushing attack and contain Vick...the key will be the super fast Giants DE's not over pursuing and allowing Vick to get inside them...of course, this will also hurt their pass rush as neither has been know to have a great bull rush. The Falcons appeared to get healthier in the bye week...Abraham, Gandy, Forney and others all appear as though they are going to play...the true question mark is Hartwell with his creaky knees.

Hot Lanta should be favored by about 4 and the total around 41...Atlanta's rush defense has been vastly approved this year and they boast one of the best CB's in the league...I like Atlanta in this game, but the powerful offense of the G-men is enough to scare me away...

"The Man" has Hot Lanta favored by 3 and the total at 41.5...I like Atlanta, but ultimately I would stay away unless GuruJoe can talk me into it...

Houston @ Dallas

Houston is coming off a bye week...Dallas a beating in Philly...TO is not talking to WR coach...The Tuna is done talking about TO...and I think Drew is upset about his O-line...and you thought Dallas was a good soap opera...this team is ready for prime time...the good news is that Houston is coming to town...Houston is expected to have Peek and Faggins on the sidelines...that is not good for a defense that is not very good...maybe Mario Williams will have his break out game...or maybe they will continue to regret picking Reggie Bush.

Dallas should be double digit favorites and the total around 44. I would not touch this line, though I think Dallas should win handily...just too many points for a team coming off a bye and another with the circus going full tilt.

"The Man" has Dallas giving 13 and the total around 43...if forced, I would pick Dallas and over, but ultimately a stay away game...however, Dallas has gone over every game this year...is that a trend worth putting your money on?

Tennessee @ Skins

TN stinks...they are lucky that Indi can't stop the run. The Skins have been up and down...they put up 30 points on the vaunted Jax defense then score a whopping 3 points against the Giants...nothing like the 29th ranked defense coming to town to cure that problem...Vince Young will continue to make plays with his legs, but he better start with his arm soon enough...

The Skins should be favored by about 10 and the total of about 43...I like the Skins to rebound, but I am not sure if the game in Indi was a fluke or the Titans getting heart...I want to think it a fluke, but it did just enough to scare me off this game...

"The Man" has the Skins giving 10.5 and the total at 38.5...that total looks a little low, but the bad TN offense scares me enough to stay away...

Cinci @ TB

Gradkowski moved the ball and didn't make any rookie mistakes...in fact, he looked pretty good...and Cadillac got the engines revving again. Cinci comes into this game very short handed...Thurman and Henry suspended...Jackson and Jeanty were downgraded to doubtful...remember, this is the team that has given up almost 400 yards rushing in the last two games combined...is it time for TB to get off the schneid?

I am guessing that Cinci is favored by about two and the total around 41...the over is intriguing to me as neither defense has been particularly stifling this year...personally, I think TB gets off the Schneid, but it will not be an official pick.

"The Man" has Cinci giving 5.5 and the total at 44...I don't like the line, but the over is still interesting...Cinci has gone over the past three games and TB has gone over in two games in a row...GuruJoe, help me out here...

Philly @ NO

Philly comes off another impressive win against the Cowboys. The Eagles are soaring high...scoring over 30 in the last three games. The Aints continue to impress...Deuce continues to pound away...Reggie is getting his 15 - 20 touches a game and showing why the Texans should have drafted him...and Brees is just not making mistakes.

Philly will be a road favorite by about 2 or 3 and the total should be around 43...I like the over if it is in the low forties...I won't buck the trend of Philly scoring 30...and NO should be able to put some points on the board as well...I actually like Philly, but that fired up home crowd scares me...ultimately, I would stay away from the line.

"The Man" has Philly giving 3 and the total at 46.5...forget about the line...Philly is averaging over 30 points in its past 3 games...can NO score 17?

Seattle @ St. Louis

If Seattle loses this one, then hopes of repeating as division champs would diminish...they would be 1.5 games behind and a loss on agains the leader...Seattle will be without reigning MVP Shaun Alexander. Lucky for them, the Rams defense won't be confused any time soon with that of the Bears...they are in the bottom third in against both the run and pass. The Hawks need to rebound after that whoopin' in Chicago. Branch is expected to start and Jeramy Stevens looks to get back on the field since the Super Bowl...which they lost in case you missed it...this should open the offense up a little.

I am guessing the Hawks will be favored by about 3 and the total in the mid-forties...St. Louis squeaked by GB, AZ, and Detroit in the past three weeks...I think they will learn early that the Hawks are a little better than the likes of these bottom feeders...GuruJoe, why shouldn't we be on the Hawks? The over is also intriguing to me...

"The Man" has Seattle giving 3 and the total at 44.5...I am still interested by the Hawks as the Rams victories have been less than impressive to me...the total looks about right...I would trend to the over, but ultimately would stay away in case a real team can hld St. Louis in check.

Miami @ NYJ

I guess all that heart we discussed about Chad and Coles got stabbed...or maybe cat bitten is more appropriate. The Jags stifled them all game and never let up. The Fins meanwhile continue to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year (in this humble Gurus opinion). Joey actually moved the offense decently but had two drive killing INT's...could this just be the rust from lack of action (that is the excuse I use for my wife anyway)? The problem is the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets rush defense has more holes in it than OJ's alibi...the Fins game plan to date has been to run Ronnie and keep running him...if Joey doesn't make mistakes, then this will be a close one.

The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 6 and the total should be in the high 30's...not knowing which J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets team is going to show up or which Joey will show up...that is enough for me to stay away.

"The Man" has the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets giving 2.5 and the total at 36.5..Miami is 0 - 5 against the spread this year...is that a trend worth jumping on, GuruJoe? The total looks a little low to me, but all but one of Miami's games have gone under...the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets meanwhile have gone over every game...sounds like a wash to me...

KC @ The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers

The fact that LJ looks like he is going to play aftrer nearly losing his head...literally...is amazing. The problem is that no one runs on the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers
and that means this game is on the arm of Damon Huard. The bad news for the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers is that Joey Porter, DeShea Townsend and Kendall Simmons are most likely out. The good news is that DeShea will be replaced by Bryant McFadden, who might actually be better. Kendall will be replaced by Chris Kemoeatu and that might not be a bad thing either. The O-line has struggled and many have pointed to Simmons as the biggest part of the problem. He almost lost his job in training camp to Kemo (I am very happy to have a Kemo playing). The biggest issue is Porter, because his #1 backup James Harrison is also out. I am guessing the Chiefs will run to the left often.

I thought this game would be a pick em game, but heard the Steelers are giving close to 7...I wouldn't touch this line...I can't believe a 1 - 3 team would be giving 7, but I am not betting on Huard against this defense on the road...he will quickly learn the difference between the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers and AZ and SF...the total should be in the mid-30's and I think the over might be the call, but let's see what it is...

"The Man" has the Steelers giving 6.5 and the total at 37...ultimately, I stay away from this game...

SD @ SF

I am offiicially on the Philip Rivers bandwagon...not to mention that defense...they are ranked #1 in every category...and now they face a SF line with a new left side due to injuries to Allen and Jennings...that doesn't bode well for "Small Hands" Smith...

SD should be favored by about a TD and the total will be in the mid-30's...I can't see SD not scoring at least 30 themselves, but will Smith be able to lead SF to a score...I think SD could be a play depending on the final line...the total is a stay away because of that SD defense...

"The Man" has SD giving 9.5 and the total at 42.5...this total looks way too high...in addition, I am beginning to convince myself of SD as a play...SF plays decent against mediocre to bad teams and gets demolished against good teams...why would this be any different...I would stay away from the total, but this game looks like the TN game from three weeks prior...i.e. a huge win by SD...

Oakland @ Denver

Jerry Porter suspended...Randy Moss on the trading block...no QB that can do anything...they are bad. Denver meanwhile just survived a slobber knocker with the Baltimorons on Monday night...Oakland will do nothing on the Denver D. Denver will dominate every aspect of this game...

I am guessing Denver will be favored between 13 - 15 and the total in the high 30's to low 40's...I can't see Denver not winning this game by 21...the under might be a play because we all know there is nothing Mike Shanahan would love more than shutting out the Raiders...

"The Man" has Oakland getting 14.5 and the total at 36...I would stay away from this low total because who knows what Oakland will do offensively, but Oakland is really bad...Oakland is 0-4 against the spread...that is a trend I like...I might recommend buying that half point to ensure no back door cover, but I still don't see Denver winning by less than 3 TD's...

Chicago @ AZ

Chicago has clearly put themselves as the beast of the NFC and quite honestly the NFL...the Defense has given up 30 less points than the great Bears D of 1985...Rex and team has the offense clicking. The Cards offensive line is bad...Fitzgerald is hurt...and Leinart is still the starter...I think Leinart will be a fine QB in this league, but he has not seen a defense like this ever...remember he played in the PAC 10, which has no defense.

Chicago should be favored by at least a TD on the road and the total in the range of 36 - 38...I don't see this runaway freight train stopping this week. GuruJoe, please talk me out of the over and Chicago...

"The Man" has Chicago giving 11 and the total at 39...I would not touch the over based on a rookie QB facing this D, but I still am liking the Bears...stay tuned Monday to see if it is an official pick...

GuruJoe, give us your thoughts...