NFL Week 5

No, it is not Monday morning while you make the drive to freedom, it is the weekly write-up…I just couldn't be satisfied with a positive week as I had to add the over in Philly/GB…of course, there are numerous reasons it should have hit, but it didn't…there numerous reasons MN should have won at Buffalo, but they didn't…we don't make excuses…we usually make money…we are now down…10.3 stars on the year…believe it or not, this will become positive before it is all said and done...

Miami @ NE

Boy is Miami bad…they squeeze…and yes it was a tighter squeeze than a baby through coming into this world…by TN at home…they lose to Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Houston…the combined record of these teams is well below 500…they can't run…Daunte can barely get the ball to Ronnie Brown to hand it off…meanwhile, every had a knife stuck in NE and all they do is go on the road and kick the snot out of the Bungles…not looking good for Miami…

NE should be favored by more than a TD and the total should be in the high 30's…if NE is favored by less than a TD, then we definitely will look at this one further…

"The Man" has NE giving 9.5 and the total at 37…this is just too many points in a division rivalry game…

GuruJoe: Miami is horrible, Dante has a sore shoulder and they have no OL. NE should be able to run on them and kill Dante but 9.5 is alot of points as Saban wants to show his mentor something. Intriguing indeed but too close.

TB @ NO

TB has to throw Gradkowski into the fire…he won the backup job early in training camp as he impressed Chuckie (aka Gruden). To top it off, Kenyatta Walker gets placed on IR…and this O-line wasn't too good before that…it could be a long day for Bruce…NO meanwhile continues to surprise somewhat. We thought they had enough talent on offense to compete, but their D has been better than expected. I still don't see them making the playoff, but this win will put them at 4 - 1 with a shot…after this home game though the schedule gets a lot more difficult.

NO will be favored by about 5 - 7…you can't touch this game based on the new QB…could he actually be better than Simms? The total will be in the mid-30's…I would like to see what Bruce can do before I start taking the Bucs…or going against them

"The Man" has NO favored by 6.5 and the total at 35…I think NO probably covers this one, but Bruce may be ready to show he belongs in the NFL…stay away...

Skins @ NYG

Skins have played a couple of nice games in a row…is it coincidence that Portis has been healthy in these games? I think not…Brunell has also learned the value of finding Santana Moss again and again and again…NYG meanwhile is facing some internal turmoil…everyone hates Coughlin…Shockey is a big mouth…Burress has no heart…Emmons is out, which will make stopping Portis that much harder. This game is a big divisional game…and huge in the standings as the G-men don't want to go to 1 - 3 and the Skins would prefer to be 3 - 2 than the opposite…

I am guessing the G-men will be a small favorite and the total will be in the low 40's…the over is intriguing here as both teams can score…and neither can cover the pass…I think I said this on Monday too…and damnit I should have won…

"The Man" has the G-spots giving 4.5 and the total at 45.5…4.5 points seems like a lot of points to be giving in a division game, without your starting LB, with your team hating your coach, and it took a miracle to win the one game you did win…the Skins meanwhile spent last week getting a big win against the Jags and also getting their heads pounded in…in the last 8 games, only 2 of them would have gone over this number…also, only 2 games in this stretch have been less than FG games…ultimately, all this makes me stay away from this game...

Detroit @ MN

Detroit is terrible…again…MN is playing not to lose with lots of penalties…Roy Williams is trying to get his brother Mike on the field (yes I know they are not brothers)...with no guarantee from Roy there isn't much to say…

MN will be favored by about 5…total in the mid-30's…the under is intriguing, but Detroit is talking about opening it up and getting the offense going…Detroit is giving up 28 points a game, but none of those games have been against an offense as inept as the Vikes…

"The Man" has this line at 6.5 and the total at 40.5…all of MN games have gone under this year, while 3 of Detroit's 4 games have gone over. The reason for those overs is the opponents scoring at will…Detroit is only scoring 17 points a game…and those have come lately against GB and St. Louis…I see this one staying low…GuruJoe, doesn't this total look high to you?

GuruJoe: Over 40.5 Minny and Det. Minny is average and Detroit's D is horrible. What can an average team do to a horrible D??? Wake up and tear it apart. Detroit woke up a bit on O last week and I just to worried about how bad Detroit's D is. Giving up over 30 points in 3 straight games is not a good sign in taking them with an over play.

Cleveland @ Carolina

Could the big comeback be just want Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ordered? I would say maybe, but now they have to go face the Panthers…who are starting to hit their stride as Steve Smith gets healthier every week…Carolina's D is playing very well. I don't see Cleveland staying in this one…

Carolina should be favored by 8 or 9 and the total in the mid-30's…ultimately I probably wouldn't touch it, but let's see what the line is…Carolina is intriguing…

"The Man" has Carolina giving 8 and the total at 37.5…Carolina is still calling my name as their offense continue to get on track and I am not impressed with Cleveland's lone win of the season in Oakland...

GuruJoe: Car -8 Clev - The ONLY thing that scares me here is a cheap pass here or there to Braylon Edwards for a TD. I can't see how Car doesn't win this game by 10-14 points now that they are clicking.

Buffalo @ Chicago

Go Under…Buffalo's D has been very good thus far…they are giving up an average of only 16 points a game…Just Punt will not score on the Bears who are giving up just over a TD/game…Buffalo will get nothing done on offense, so it comes down to what the Bears can do on offense…

I am guessing the Bears will be favored by about 10…and the total around 33…this game will be a 24 - 7 game…if Buffalo is lucky enough to score in junk time…the Bears want to show they are the best team in the NFL…let's see what the line truly is, but the under and Bears is very tempting on the line I have listed…

"The Man" has the Bears giving 10 and the total at 34.5 points…Chicago has beaten their opponents by an average of 21 points this season…I love the Bears here and the under is very intriguing to me…the only question is how many defensive TD's will they score…and will that throw it over...

GuruJoe: Jauron has this D playing pretty well but Chicago is the real deal. Who would have thought a year ago that the Bears would be favored by 10 vs anyone. Just Punt is going to struggle in this game. He could hand Chicago 14 points on a platter. The Bills have played NE, Miami, Jets and Minny......nobody of the caliber on either side of the ball as they are going to see on Sunday. After the sunday night victory vs Seattle, the windy city is fired up and Just Punt wont know what hit him.

St. Louis @ GB

Go Over…St. Louis has the offense working nicely…well at least for one week after giving up on the running show…I really expect Linehan to learn that you can set up the run by passing…GB is not very good…Favre has lost it…he looked horrible on Monday night…of course, it is hard to look good with no talent around you…

St. Louis should be a road favorite by 6 and the total around 45…the Rams and the over are intriguing…we shall see what "the man" has to say…

"The Man" has the Rams giving a small 3 and the total at 46.5…the Packers haven't turned the ball over less than 2 times in each of its first four games…the Rams meanwhile have been ball hawks on D…I still like the Rams and the over…GuruJoe, are we beyond talking about Favre's magic...

GuruJoe: I don't get this very much. Favre is done. This team is ready to move on but can't because Lord Favre won't step down. The Rams lost to SF but are 3-1 and keeping pace with Seattle for possibly a surprise run.....they don't want to lose a gimme and GB won't be able to stop them.

If I thought GB's offense could score I'd like this but after the monday night game I'm not sure about any magic left for Favre. Not worth the bet to me. We are looking for guarantees and Favre could put up 10 or 30....I don't bet on coin tosses and I'm not betting on which Favre shows up (still like the Rams -3).

TN @ Indi

Poor TN…Vince Young didn't look horrible…but he has nothing there…Dallas just manhandled them…I still contend that the stomping was done in hope of being suspended…why put forth the effort on such a bad team…Indi has the O rolling early…the D has not been stellar, but when you have that offense, you don't have to be…

Indi should be favored by about 17 and the total in the mid-40's…let's see what "the man" says, but I hate giving this many points, but TN has lost by more than 30 twice to much lesser offenses than the Colts…

"The Man" has Indi giving 19 and the total at 48…Indi is 3 - 1 against the spread this year and the Titans are 1 - 3…combined the over has hit in 5 of the 8 games these teams have played this year…last year, both games went under similar totals…mainly because the Titans didn't score…I would love to jump on Indi, but the dreaded back door cover scares me here and the total is just too high with that pathetic Titans offense…Indi will score at least 35, but I am not convinced the Titans will score 14…real close on this one...

NYJ @ Jax

Jax may have played the toughest schedule to date and survived thus far with a 2 - 2 record…their D has been very good (I know the Skins scored 30 on them)…Byron continues to show he is a gamer…Chad and crew have exceeded expectations thus far…their D is suspect. I just can't see them winning this road game…

Jags should be favored by about 5 and the total in the mid-30's…I don't think I would touch this game unless something is off…

"The Man" has the Jags giving 7 and the total at 37…stay away game for this guru…although all four of the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets games have gone over, they were certainly against lesser defensive teams than the Jags…and I would never go against that trend, but it should stop eventually right GuruJoe?

GuruJoe: Pennington has shown heart and Jax's D was embarassed last week. I'm not betting on how pissed they could be. 37 seems low but tough one for me to bet on.

Oakland @ SF

If Oakland is going to win a game, this might be it…Houston might be the only other chance on that schedule…Moss is talking trash on the team and coaches…this team is bad…plain and simple…SF is not very good, but they usually play with heart…last week, KC shut them out in Arrowhead…I don't think that will happen again this week…

SF will be favored by about 5…and the total in the high 30's…I wouldn’t touch this game at all…no matter how off the line appears…

"The Man" has SF giving 3.5 and the total at 40.5…I would tend to go with SF and over, but I would rather save my money for the champagne room...

KC @ AZ

The much anticipated debut of Matt Leinart occurs this Sunday…meanwhile, Damon Huard looks to get the start again this week…KC's D has been solid all year…they haven't given up more than 23…the offense has been anemic before this past week, but that was against the 49ers…AZ has no offensive line…zero…negative…do you think Edge misses Indianapolis yet?

I honestly don't know what to think of this line…I would probably put KC at a favorite by about a FG…the total in the mid-40's…with these two QB's I would not touch this game…

"The Man" has KC giving 3 and the total at 39…the Chiefs are only giving up 10 points per game…but this total looks low to me…I just can't bet on Damon Huard being able to score at this point...

Dallas @ Philly

Mommy, Mommy, will you take me to the circus? That's not the circus son, it's just TO…he is ready for the abuse…the fans were fired up last week…the Boys had fun beating up on the Titans last week…but now they will be coming to a hostile environment and a team with a lot more talent…Philly got their act together in the second half against GB, but they paid a price…Reggie Brown is questionable…Stallworth is doubtful…this adds to injuries to Hood, Sheppard, and Westbrook…assuming these guys don't play, then I don't see the Eagles being able to overcome these injuries…

I would guess it is a pick em game and the total in the low 40's…the over is very intriguing to me, but we need to see the health of the Eagles later in the week…

"The Man" has Philly giving TO and the circus 2 and the total at 44…I can't see this game not going over…Philly has given up point to decent offenses and shut down the bad ones…I also can't see Dallas losing this game…GuruJoe, please talk me out of the over and Dallas…or can't you?

GuruJoe: Philly's only real challenge was vs NYG and even they are struggling. McNabb is healthy and this team WANTS this game but ultimately McNabb can't do it himself and his Offense and Defense are hurting. Dallas has weapons on O and a strong D. Dallas should win this game outright with only 2 factors that could scare you away: revenge on Philly's side....what is that really worth once the game starts? Bledsoe....he can singlehandly lose any game if harassed. If he doesn't make mistakes, Dallas has more talent.

Pitt @ SD

The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers go to SD for a huge game…SD has beaten no one (unless you consider Oakland and TN real teams)…they just got beat by the Ravens on the road…Pittsburgh took their bye week to get Hines Ward healthy…get Big Ben a lot of reps…and get Troy's shoulder healthy…I think this will be a statement game by the Steelers…they will come in and punch SD in the mouth and win outright…I think LT is the best RB in the league, but you will not run against this D…that means Rivers must make a play…and we all know Marty won't let him…I think it is real close, but Big Ben's experience is the difference here…

SD is favored by 2.5 or 3…total should be around 34…under might be the play, but let's see the line first…

"The Man" is giving 3 points to the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers…and the total is at 37.5…I see this game as being similar to the Jax game and the SD vs. Baltimore game…I think 3 points is too many and the total is too high…this might be an added selection…GuruJoe and I need to discuss this one further...

GuruJoe: Defending Super Bowl Champs are 1-2 after two consecutive losses, had a bye week to prepare and play in prime time. Thats alot of points to give our boys but is our offense really over the mistakes? Is ward really healthy? He says no. Can the other WRs hold the ball? Is Ben over the rust? Was it rust? This still isn't a must win at this stage of the season with 5 division games left but it sure is a statement game for the Steelers. Steelers can stop the run, so can SD. I don't see Marty opening the game up enough to win by more than a FG....if at all.

Baltimore @ Denver

Go under…this game will be very similar to the Steelers @ Jax game…both teams will try to run and run often…and won't have much success…the D's here will dominate…I would be shocked if 21 points are scored in this game…check back for this one…it might be another late release to ruin a positive weekend…Baltimore is giving up an average of 8 points…Denver 10…and neither team is scoring much…Baltimore has averaged 21 points and Denver 12...

Denver will be favored by about 5 and the total around 34…I like under anything higher than 35…there is no way 5 TD's are scored in this game…let's check out the man…

"The Man" has Denver giving 4 and the total at 33.5…I think Baltimore's undefeated record comes to an end…they will not be able to pound the ball with Jamal against the Mules…the under is still looking good to me...

GuruJoe: Balt hasn't moved the ball well in 2 games. Den hasn't moved the ball well all year and they are playing one of the best D's in the league. I hate betting under such small numbers on monday night. One concern is that the defenses are so good they could score....kiss of death to the under.