NFL This Week

Week 3 marked the third losing week in a row for official selections with the Gurus losing another star…the total is now at -9…obviously, there has been improvement in the selections, so we look to make a big run in the next several weeks as the picture becomes clear on who is a contender (Ravens?) and who is a pretender (I will not say my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers)…
Another big week of football is in front of us, so we might as well get started:
AZ @ Hot Lanta
The Cards potent offense hasn't looked more like a bum on crack lately. Scoring only 24 points the last two weeks…Dennis Green threatened to put Matt Leinart in to start the game…is this just to get Kurt fired up? I can't believe Leinart is ready to play and Atlanta would have been a big selection for me if the change was made. Of course, Hot Lanta comes off a loss against an emotional NO Aints team. Hot Lanta has given up a total of 32 points this season and that includes the punt block last week…this doesn't bode well for the struggling Cards O…all indications are that Ed Hartwell and John Abraham may return to the lineup…AZ fans will be screaming for Leinart after this game…
I put this game at Atlanta by about a TD and the total around 40…both teams have the capacity to score, but both D's have been better than anticipated. Two dome/turf teams mixing it up could make for an over call…especially, after the way the Aints kept the Black Birds down…
"The Man" has Hot Lanta giving a TD as I suspected and the total at 40.5…I know it is hard to believe I don't look at these lines first…the over is tempting here…
Dallas @ TN
TN Sucks…have we mentioned this? TN was thinking about starting Vince Young…I don't understand why they don't…they can lose 13 games with or without him…of course, the other experts point to guys like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, and others as examples of ruining guys careers by starting them too soon…I point to guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and of course Big Ben…I don't see any real trend here…other than the Titans just really suck…their D is a sieve, their O has a bunch of mediocre players (actually calling them mediocre is insulting the other mediocre players in the NFL). Dallas is coming off a bye week…TO is high as a kite and may play…assuming he lives that long…Tuna is loving Drew again…looks like the rout will be on…
I put this game as the Boys favored by about 7 on the road and the total around 36…I HATE heavy road favorites…but this might be one to jump on if it is less than a TD…have we mentioned the Titans suck?
"The Man" has the boys favored by 9.5 and the total at 37…I wouldn't touch this game...
Indi @ Jets
I told you in my write up that the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets might actually win 8 games this year…and they will have the schedule makers to thank…they have beaten a bad Buffalo team and a really bad TN team (see the TN write up for how we really feel). Hell no I am not convinced…Colts beat a tough Jags team by a TD…the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets finally have to face a real team…and dare I say I don't think it will be pretty…remember the NE game was not close until a couple of great individual efforts on 2 plays. The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets are 27th against the pass…Peyton has got to be licking his chops…even if he does have to go back to NYC…you thought the lesson he taught his little brother was something…wait for this one…
The line has to be Indi by about a TD…total around 45…I HATE heavy road favorites…should I? The Colts are so much better…but Eric Mangini may have learned enough from his days with the Pats to keep Peyton down a little…I take the Colts in anything less than a TD and the over on anything in the low 40's…
"The Man" has Indi favored by 9 and the total at 46.5…I would not touch this line or total…
Miami @ Houston
What a pillow fight this will turn out to be…Houston couldn't stop a pop warner team…Miami can't score on a pop warner team (see the TN game last week)…are they regretting passing up Reggie in Houston yet? Meanwhile, Daunte has looked horrible…maybe GuruJoe was right…Randy Moss does make the difference…but I won't bring up Aaron Brooks or Andrew Walter…if Miami is going to break out of its slump on offense there is no better team to do it against…did I say the same thing last week about TN…
I am guessing Miami is a small road favorite and the total is around 40…I would not touch this game with all the money from my favorite lady's G-string…I mean my wife's piggy bank…
"The Man" has the Fins giving 3.5 and the total at 40.5…I still wouldn't touch it…funny I hear that all the time...
MN @ Buffalo
The Bills finally came back to reality against the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets…have we told you how bad Just Punt Losman is? Real bad…The Vikes meanwhile lost a close one to the Bears…they continue to play tough D, run the ball and pray Old Man Johnson doesn't make a mistake…so far the formula has been pretty good…
The Vikes (no not that kind TO…Vikings) should be about 5 point favorites…the total should be in the mid-30's…then under is real intriguing in this one if it starts creeping in the upper 30's
"The Man" has the Vikes getting one…I know this game is on the road, but has "the Man" seen Just Punt Losman play…this looks like a very possible play…talent should overcome the road in this one…the total is right at 35 as I suspected…
NO @ Carolina
Carolina played a physical game on the road at TB…just ask Chris Simms…I assume you can talk without a spleen right? They managed to hold on to a narrow victory…NO won that emotional game at home in the first game in NO since the hurricanes…NO D really impressed me, but I can't tell if they are that good or just playing on an emotional high…I would tend to believe the latter…there has to be an emotional let down…these guys aren't this good…they beat bad Cleve and GB teams on the road and then smoked a decent Hot Lanta team…Carolina won…could it be Steve Smith?
The Panthers should be favored by about 5 or 6…the total is probably in the upper 30's…I like Carolina giving anything less than a TD…the total should be close…I could see the Panthers scoring 30 and the Aints nothing…probably staying away unless it is real off…
"The Man" Carolina giving a TD and the total at 41.5…is it worth buying the half point here GuruJoe?
SD @ Baltimore
Philip Rivers gets his first true test…and no I don't consider Oakland and TN real tests…He will not be able to just turn around and hand the ball to LT in this game…he might actually have to make a couple of plays himself…the D is getting shaky with two safeties out…after losing Foley…but they are ranked number one through three weeks…Baltimore on the other hand has been playing smash mouth football…run the ball with Jamal and stop the other team…this is going to be a slobber knocker…
I would put this line at Ravens by about 4 and the total at 34…I wouldn't touch the total unless it is real off…the Ravens disappointed me last week…which Ravens team will show up…ultimately probably a stay away game…
"The Man" has SD giving the Ravens 2.5 at home…I guess I am not as impressed as Rivers victories against TN and Oakland as "the Man"…GuruJoe, please talk me out of the Ravens again this week…total is right at 33.5…an obvious don't touch as I said above.
SF @ KC
Damon Huard did better than I would have ever believed in his first start taking the Bucking Mules to OT…the offense has yet to get on track, but the D has been impressive thus far…the 49ers meanwhile still are learning how to win…or trying…they kept it close against the Cards, beat the Rams and got beaten badly by Philly…Arrowhead isn't an easy place to play…I don't think I would want to be "Small Hands" Smith this week…
KC should be favored by about a TD…I am afraid of Huard…plain and simple…total should be in the upper 30's…I am not sold on the KC D…I wouldn't touch this game unless I hit the PowerBall on Saturday and this was the only game I could watch…
"The Man" agrees with me here…KC by a TD and the total at 40.5…can't play based on the Huard factor…
Detroit @ St. Louis
I am officially off the Lions bandwagon…leaving GuruJoe as the only person left who thinks they will be better…this team stinks…they put up 24 against a bad GB D…but they gave Favre, who never plays well in domes, 31…this game may have given Brett life and showed all the critics why he came back…that will end soon, but we are not talking about their game at Philly yet…Detroit ought to bring back the run and shoot and just shoot…because we all know they can't run…I had more runs in me this morning than they have in three weeks…should I even talk about their D? The only thing potentially saving them is that the "greatest show on turf" is still being replaced by a running attack…although the Rams coach (Linehan?) made adjustments and got the ball back in Bulger's and Holt's hands…successfully I might add…this doesn't bode well for the cowardly Lions…
I think the Rams have to be favored by close to a TD and the total around 43…GuruJoe still has me scared of the Lions and this line…the over could be play…stay tuned…
"The Man" has the Rams as a 5.5 point favorite and the total at 43.5…can these two teams score that much in the Dome? GuruJoe?
Cleveland @ Oakland
In the one corner is the ineptness that is Charlie Frye…in the other is the pillow toting Oakland Raiders…the injury report for the Cleveland Browns looks like a who's who of NFL busts…Gary Baxter, Winslow, Droughns, Dinkins, Roye…the Raiders are lucky that Aaron Brooks is out…the bad news is that Andrew Walters is still healthy…where is Jeff George when you need him?
This is just like my bedroom…a no touch game…I would imagine it is about a pick em and the total around 35…but who cares…if you bet this game you better help…
"The Man" thinks the Browns have a bigger pillow…don't touch…I hear this a lot too…
Jax @ Skins
The Skins offense woke up at Houston…of course, most offenses wake up in Houston…unless you are in a Texans uniform…Brunell completed his first 22 passes for an NFL record…Portis returned with 2 TD's and is off the injury report for the first time this season…Springs is still doubtful, which hurts the defensive backfield…Jax played another solid game at Indi and kept the high powered Indi Offense in check…
I would put the Jags as a small favorite and the total in the mid 30's…
"The Man" has the Jags giving three on the road and the total at 34…I really don't like this game…maybe that Houston game was just enough to give the Skins O some confidence…
NE @ Cinci
The Bungles got a couple of lucky breaks to beat my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers…and yes, it would have been skills if the roles were reversed…NE has barely beaten a bad Bills team…held on for their lives against the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets…then lost badly against Denver this past week…Brady looks out of sorts as he tries to get used to his new targets…meanwhile, Carson and his knee is looking pretty good…their D is still not great, but created enough mistakes to pull out the victory…
I am guessing the Bungles are favored by about 5 or 6…and the total should be in the mid 40's…the Bungles are an interesting play and the over is also interesting…
"\The Man" has the Bungles giving 6 and the total at 46.5…I can't see NE keeping this one close…but the back door cover scares me…which makes me like the over a little more…
Seattle @ Chicago
Shaun will not play according to Holmgren…I heard one expert say that losing the MVP is actually very good for the Hawks since Maurice Morris brings more speed which they need against the Bears…I am not sure losing the league's MVP could be good for any team…the Bears have given up 23 points…this has certainly been against lesser competition…Vikes, Pack and Lions…the Hakws have been a notoriously average road team at best…
I am guessing without Shaun the Bears will be a favorite by about 4…the total should be around 37…I wouldn't touch this game, but the Bears are interesting…however, I just can't forget the potent Caroina's offense coming to town last January…
"The Man" has the Hawks getting 3.5 on the road…and the total at 34.5…the Bears D is good, but those games have been against some weak offenses…the over is starting to tempt me…GuruJoe? Ultimately, it is hard to go over with that D…right?
GB @ Philly
Philly killed the 49ers…lost a heartbreaker to the G-men…and beat a bad Houston team on the road…the Philly offense has been playing very well…the D is beat up…Hood, Sheppard, Kearse, Dawkins…just to name a few…however, I think the offense will be too much for the Pack…not to mention Monday night in Philly is a real tough place to win…
Philly should be favored by 8 or 9…the total in the mid-40's…I wouldn't touch the line as you never know what Favre will show up…but the over might be very intriguing...
"The Man" has Philly giving 11 and the total at 48…too many points to give Favre on Monday night…the over is still intriguing me…