Keeping it real...

When you are down 8 stars + juice, it is time to go back to basics...that means picking smart...here is the write up for this week...check my next post for the official picks of the week...

GuruJoe:

In a nutshell tihs week is a tough one if you want to win money. If you want action then flip a coin on a few games but for money making my plays are:Balt -6.5 - This defense is playing sick. I can't see Charlie Frye scoring at all against this defense. Balt O is moving methodically and capable of putting up some points while the Balt D is capable of shutting out a horrible Clev O.Cincy/PItt over 43 - I think Carson wants revenge and the Cincy D is hurting bad. The combination means points by Cincy and points by us Pitt. Troy might be playing on one arm still and Pitt is coming off the Monday night game. Both teams are going to be up for this game so if Ben can wash away the rust there should be some points scored.Jets - I don't think Buff should be giving anyone 5 points. Jets have shown some heart in 2 games and are capapble of making a game vs Just Punt. Buffalo D has played well but I'm not sold on either of these teams. I have trouble betting on either team here but its interesting based on Jets heart.

GuruBob:

Skins @ Hosuton

The Skins have started the season with 2 big losses to MN and @ Dallas. The offense has been as effective as an AA meeting at a bar. Portis didn't play last week and clearly wasn't 100% in the opener. All reports indicate that he is going to play and ready to run. Houston has lost its first two games and appears to have not solved anything on D...their pass defense has been horrendous...of course, the Colts do that to a lot of team...but they also yielded over 300 yards to the Eagles. If you have a struggling offense and are on the road, there is no better place to go than Houston to get it back on track.

I am guessing this game is about a FG game with the total around 37. Based on the fact that the Skins have done nothing on O, I would stay away from the line...however, the total could be some where to look. If this number is in the high thirties, the over might be a play here. The Skins D is giving up yards and gave up some points to the Boys last week...I would recommend playing over anything in the 30's...

"The Man" has this game at Skins by 4 and total at 37.5...the over could be a play...GuruJoe talk to me here...

NYJ @ Buffalo

Buffalo's D has been solid against the pass and a sieve against the run...the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets beat a very bad Titans' team on the road and then proceeded to only play about 1.5 quarters at home against the Pats, but made that game very interesting. The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets are 19th against the run and that is the only thing the Bills can do...

I wouldn't touch this game for anything. I am guessing it is about a pick em game and the total in the mid 30's...

"The Man" has the Bills giving 5.5 and the total at 34.5...I am not sure Just Punt and the Bills should be giving any points to anyone...5.5 seems like a lot, but ultimately we need to learn more about these two teams before we make a play...but the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets are intriguing...

GB @ Detroit

It is scary how close the Lions were to beating the Bears last week...huh Roy? Nice prediction...and you thought our - 8 stars thus far was bad...Roy thinks the first week they should have scored 40...they scored 6...they were going to beat the Bears...they lost by 26...

GB looked horrible against the Bears, but better against the Aints...Favre looked better, but there is no running game to speak of. They have been decent against the run, but 30th against the pass after just two games.

This would be a no play game for me as well. I am guessing the line will be GB getting about 5 and the total in the low 40's....

"The Man" is giving Favre and the Pack a TD and the total at 39.5...like I said...I wouldn't touch this game...

Jax @ Indi

The Colts offense is already rolling...of course, facing Houston will have that effect on your offense...the Jags D is not Houston...Jax comes off a big win against my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers...that game was about as hard hitting as I have seen in a long time...this game will truly test the toughness of the Colts.

I am guessing the line here is Indi by around 4 and the total around 43...I would not touch the line as the Jags are coming off an emotional win...I would be very interested in anything under 45...I see this game being played close to the vest...

"The Man" was not impressed with the Jags victory as they are now getting a TD...the total is at 42.5...this is close as the Jags could very easily stay within a TD, but I would ultimately stay away...

Bears @ MN

I guess the QB controversy is over in Chi-town...Grossman has looked very good, but these games were against the Pack non-attack and the cowardly Lions...the Vikes have been playing ball control offense by handing it off to Chester Taylor and asking old man Johnson not to make mistakes...so far, it has worked...Ryan Longwell has as many TD passes as the old man...I personally think the old man will have to make a play this week if they want to win...

I am guessing the Bears will be giving about 2 points and the total will be in the mid 30's. I personally look for the Bears to pull this one out as I am not a believer that the Vikes are as good as their record. I am very tempted by the Bears on any line under 3...I would not touch the total...

"The Man" has the Vikes getting 3.5 and the total at 35...3.5 too much to give on the road in a big divisional game...

TN @ Miami

The non-memorable Titans go to the fish out of water...I am shocked by the egg laid by the Fins against Buffalo...but what better way to turn a season around than to face one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL...the Titans are horrible and will prove it once again this weekend...

The line should be Fins giving about a TD and the total in the high 30's...I wouldn't touch this game for anything. I think the Titans stink and the Fins should blow them out, but I would like to see it on the field and get that offense going before I count on them again...

"The Man" has the Fins giving 10.5 and the total at 35.5...I don't understand the Fins giving 10.5 to anyone after their first 2 weeks...stay away...

Cinci @ Pitt

The Bungles come to the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Carson Palmer has looked good and ready to exact revenge, but Kimo is in NYC...the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers come off a slobber knocker against the Jags. They were shut out and quite frankly lost playing their game...tough D and run the ball...the difference is that the Jags exectued it better...the Bungles are really beat up...they lost their C, S, and LB last week...not to mention that Thurman is still suspended...I just don't know if their defense will be able to overcome all these missing players...the other question is will the Steel Curtain be able to contain the juggernaut...

I live in Pittsburgh, so I know the line is around 2 and the total is around 42...I would tend to go over this game, but would not touch the line itself...although GuruBob and GuruJoe will be in attendance...

"The Man" has Cinci getting 1.5 and the total at 43...the over is very intriguing as I think both teams will score...GuruJoe, can you talk me out of this?

Carolina @ TB

Could these two teams win the award for most disappointing thus far? Chris Simms has looked lost...the Cadillac is looking more like a Citation...the typical TB D has looked average at best...on the other side, Carolina's O-line is beaten up...Steve Smith has yet to play, but has been upgraded to probably for this week...if Jake can stay off his back, SS is the type of weapon that changes a game...one of these teams will virtually take themselves out of the division race after this game with an 0-3 record...

I am guessing this game has Carolina as a small favorite or a pick em game...the total is probably in the mid-30's...I would stay away from this game altogether...

"The Man" has Carolina giving 3 and the total at 33.5...stay away as I mentioned before.

Balt @ Cleve

The old Cleveland Browns (Ravens) travel to Cleveland to face the new Browns...if I were a Cleveland fan, I would certainly like them to switch uniforms...the Ravens D has been stellar looking like they are in old form...their offense has been steady, but far from spectacular...Cleveland meanwhile continues to get beat up...McClutcheon is on IR...Roye, Joe J, and Baxter are doubtful...this doesn't look good for the new Cleveland Browns...

I know this line is 6.5 and the gurus say jump...the total is probably in the mid-30's...I can't see Cleveland scoring here...the Ravens D is just too strong...my only fear with the total is Frye and company making mistakes...check back on this one for a selection...

"The Man" has the Ravens giving 6.5 and the total at 33.5...this is at least a 2 TD game...GuruJoe pointed this one out early and I agree...this will be a large play...

G-men @ Seattle

The New York Football Giants had an incredible come from behind victory in Philly...Seattle was able to climb to 2-0 with a win against AZ last week...Seattle's D did a nice job of containing the high octane offense of the Cards. The G-men finally decided to start playing in the 4th quarter...

I am guessing Seattle will be giving about 5 and the total will be in the mid-40's...I would not touch this game...

"The Man" has the Hawks giving 3.5 and the total at 43...too close to what I think...

The Rams @ AZ

St. Louis' new run first offensive attack has produced one whopping TD...they managed to hold Denver to less FG's than them and win in week one and then lost badly at SF...AZ meanwhile was able to hold on against SF in week one and could not muster an offense in week 2 at Seattle. I see this game being similar to when the 49ers came for a visit...

I am guessing the Rams will be getting about 5 and the total will be set in the mid-40's. I would not touch the line, but would be intrigued by the over. I would go over any total of 43 or lower...

"The Man" has the Cards giving 4.5 and the total at 45...too close for me...

Philly @ SF

The Eagles soar to SF for the weekend...they will be without Kearse for the rest of the year...Hood and Sheppard probably won't play...the D looked solid against the G-men and then wilted in the 4th quarter...prevent D clearly prevented victory in this one...the 49ers meanwhile had all cylinders going agains the Rams...

I am guessing the line will be close, but will say Eagles will be giving a small number...the total should be around 43...I would not touch the line, though I think the Eagles will win this one...I would be interested in the over as I think both teams will score...go over any number below 41...

"The Man" has Philly giving 6 and the total at 41.5...the over is really tempting me...the line is too many points on the road...

Denver @ NE

Denver has looked awful on offense...they can still run the ball, but have been unabel to get anything done through the air...NE has been very balanced, but not overly impressive in their first two victories...if Tom Brady can continue to spread the ball around and the running game continue to be effective, they will continue to win.

I would put this line at Denver +5 and the total around 40...I wouldn't touch this game as you never know what Jake the Snake will show up...let's see where the total is...

"The Man" has Denver getting 6.5 and the total at 38.5...too close for my liking...

Atlanta @ NO

I can tell you right now that I would not this game for anything...this is an emotional game as the Aints return home for the first time in a long time...Atlanta is clearly more talented and playing very well...I am not convinced by the Aints wins in Cleve and GB...STAY AWAY from this one...

Line should be Atlanta giving about a FG and the total in the low 40's...

"The Man" says to give NO 3.5 and the total at 43...I said I wouldn't touch this game and I meant it...