Week nine is all mine...

Week Nine is upon us and the Gurus keep the winning streak alive. We were up .4 stars this past week bringing the season total to a positive 7.2 stars. Throw in Lotion’s incredible 8 – 2 record and we all know you are making money on the gridiron_gurus. Now onto this week’s action…

Atlanta @ Detroit

Hot Lanta comes to Detroit riding a couple of big games by Vick through the air. Has he possibly found the pocket to his liking? Used to making more plays with his legs than arm, Vick is making a believer out of this Guru as well as some of the national experts. The defense has not been playing exceptionally well, giving up roughly 31 points in each of the last three games. Detroit has some playmakers on offense in Kitna, Jones, and Williams. Their lone win came at home against a bad Buffalo team. It is hard to believe that you can’t spell Detroit without a D, because this team doesn’t is definitely missing the D. They are 25th overall and next to last in scoring D.

Atlanta is coming off impressive wins against the Steelers and at Cinci. I am guessing they are favored by about 6 and the total in the mid-40’s. The line will probably be big enough to scare me away, but the over might be a play…let’s see what “The Man” has to say…I like over anything under 45.

“The Man” has Atlanta giving the Cowardly Lions 5.5 and the total at 46.5…the over is real intriguing as both teams should be scoring…Atlanta should score 30…can the Lions put up at least 17 on the weak Hot Lanta D? GuruJoe, what do you think here?

Cinci @ Baltimorons

The Morons are coming off a nice road win and have control of the AFC North. This is a huge game as the Bungles will either end up tied with the Morons or they will end up 2 games behind with a loss against them. The Cinci offense may have gotten back on track last week…or could it be the bad Atlanta D. The Bungles come in with the 18th ranked offense facing the 3rd defense in the league. I think they may learn quickly that the difference between the Falcons and Morons D.

I am guessing the Ravens are a small home favorite (2 – 3) and the total at 39. I don’t see an advantage in either of these lines, but let’s see what the final margins are. Ultimately, an important divisional game usually leads me to staying away.

“The Man” has the Morons giving 3 and the total at 41.5…this total looks a little high, but there is certainly enough other nuggets out there with greater value.

Dallas @ Skins

I actually heard a national “expert” compare Tony Romo to Brett Favre. Talk about jumping on a bandwagon. I don’t think one game makes him a hero, but he certainly looked good. The Skins meanwhile are coming off a bye week, but are likely going to be missing Moss…and Brunell and Portis are banged up. This can’t be good for a mid-tier offense facing the 4th best D. On the other side of the ball, the Skins have been struggling and Boys seem to be clicking with Romo after one game.

I am not jumping two feet first onto the Romo bandwagon, but I think Dallas should be about a 5 point favorite and the total in the low 40’s. I am very intrigued by the Boys as I think the Skins suck, but after a bye week, I would ultimately stay away from the line. The total might be an under play…the NFC East tends to play much more conservative against each other and Gibbs will want to pound the ball.

“The Man” has the Boys giving 3 and the total at 41. Again, this total looks a little high to me. They have had one game get in the 40’s in the last 3 years…but the over have hit in 5 of 7 games played by Dallas and 4 of 7 by the Skins…can’t go against that.

GB @ Bills

The pillow fight of the week will be taking place in Buffalo. Donald Driver thinks the Pack Attack is back and they can make a run. They come into this game on a two game winning streak…against Miami and AZ. Their 3 wins this year have come against teams with a combined 3 – 19 record. During these games, they have averaged over 30 points. However, they have also given up almost 21 points in each of these games. So, these trends looks like GB will beat up the bad teams and then lose to the good ones…where would you rank Buffalo? If you need help, maybe learning that their offense is near the bottom and the defense in the middle of the pack will convince you they suck. I haven’t even mentioned they are lead by “Just Punt”, who continues to struggle.

I am guessing GB is a small road favorite and the total in the mid-40’s. You all know by now that we don’t often play bad teams facing other bad teams…the over might be the call…each of GB’s 3 games against the bad teams have gone over. In addition, Woodson is listed as questionable…that can’t help a weak secondary.

“The Man” has the Bills giving 3 and the total at 40.5. I think the Pack should win the game, so I would take the points if someone had a gun to my head, but ultimately I would stay away from the line. I still like the over as GB will score in the high 20’s and that means it won’t need many points to reach this total.

Houston @ NYG

David Carr gets benched and Sage moves the offense. NYG meanwhile continues to roll doing whatever it needs to do to win. Last week’s game against TB is a typical example…get the lead and then pound the ball, play field position football, and force the other team to make a play. TB couldn’t do it. Does anyone out there have more faith in the Texans than the Bucs? After an impressive win over a beat up Jags team, the Texans laid an egg against the weak Titans.

NYG will be a huge favorite at home ranging from 10 – 12 points (or more). The total should be in the high 30’s. The G-men are very intriguing to me…but I would stay away from the total. G-men have won 4 straight against the spread and I am not about to go against that trend…let’s see what the final line is, but anything under 14 is a play.

“The Man” has the G-men giving 13 and the total at 43. The G-men have won 4 in a row against the spread and continue to beat up on teams at home. I don’t like the total, but I am riding the G train until it stops rolling.

KC @ St. Louis

Damon Huard has been fairly impressive other than the Pittsburgh debacle averaging over 30 points in their last 4 victories. LJ has been finding his stride, clearly being helped by Huard’s solid play. Their game plan will be to pound LJ against the 27th ranked rush D to keep the potent offense of the Rams on the sidelines. The Rams score almost 30 points per game at home as opposed to less than 20 on the road.

Ultimately, I think the Rams will be favored by about a TD and the total in the high 40’s. I think the line is a toss up. The over could be a play here depending on “The Man”…I would definitely go over anything lower than 45 and probably up to 50. There is no chance both teams don’t score in the high 20’s.

“The Man” has the Rams giving 2.5 and the total at 48…KC has gone over the last 5 games and the Rams have gone over in 3 of their last 4…I can’t go against these trends..can I GuruJoe? Stay away from the line.

Fins @ Bears

I am not getting off the Bears bandwagon until they give me a reason to. The Fins suck. They have lost to the likes of GB, NYJ, Houston and the Bills. They have the 29th ranked scoring offense facing the #1 defense…tough year for Nick and crew.

Bears will be favored by at least 14 and the total in the high 30’s. I am staying on the Bears bandwagon as long as the line is less than 14…if it is less than 17 then GuruJoe and I will have serious talks.

“The Man” has the Bear giving 13.5 and the total at 37.5. Miami has not beaten the spread once this year…I will never buck that trend. GuruJoe can’t even talk me out of this one…check back tomorrow for the official plays.

Aints @ Bucs

Well, we can still call them the Aints. I was ready to jump on the bandwagon, but it was one week too early. They were really hurt by two key turnovers created by a solid Baltimoron D. The Bucs meanwhile still can’t get the offense going. The Bucs got manhandled by a superior Giants team last week after two shocking wins against the Bungles and Eagles. TB has the worst scoring offense, but luckily has found their D. The Aints D exceeded most people’s expectations, but has faltered lately. They have given up an average of 25 points over the last 4 games. What better cure for a struggling D than the worst scoring offense?

I am guessing NO will be a small road favorite and the total around 40. The under could intrigue me depending on what “The Man” set it at.

“The Man” has the Aints giving 1 and the total at 38…too many other golden nuggets to waste any more energy on this crapshoot.

TN @ Jags

David Garrard in and Byron to the bench. The Jags D is still beaten up, but they managed to clip the Eagles wings last week after being embarrassed by the Texans. Will the real Jaguars please step forward? TN meanwhile is on a little roll winning 2 in a row scoring at least 25 in the two victories. Vince isn’t lighting it up, but he is not making huge mistakes and is making some plays with his legs. Is it possible these guys don’t suck that bad? NOOOO…they still suck. These two wins were against the Skins and Texans…a combined record of 4 – 10.

The Jags should be favored by about a TD and the total in the mid-30’s. I wouldn’t touch this game unless my only other choice was to attend a Boy George concert.

“The Man” has the Jags giving 9.5 and the total at 37.5…again stay away from this game…

MN @ SF

MN got pummeled on MNF. GuruJoe has nailed this team more often than Hef a Playboy bunny. He has said all season that these guys are mediocre. He tried to talk me into the MNF game last week, but I would not violate one of my rules of picking a MNF road favorite. SF meanwhile comes off their thumping by the Bears. It is hard to say which thumping is worse, but I would tend to go with the Vikes…at least the 49ers were 16 point underdogs.

I am guessing the Vikes are giving about 3 and the total around 37. I wouldn’t touch this game, but I would be on SF if I had to choose.

“The Man” has the Vikes giving 5 and the total at 43. This total looks high, but ultimately a stay away game for this Guru. I will say that I could easily see this being a trap game for the Vikes…a short week and then traveling west is usually not a good combination.

Cleve @ SD

The Brownies head to SD for a nice vacation…at least until Sunday afternoon. The Browns pulled off a win against the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets…thanks to a horrible call at the end of the game, which would have forced the game into OT. SD meanwhile laid the smack down on the Rams at home. Merriman decided to drop his appeal and will miss this game due to suspension. Phillips is questionable. Foley is out for the year…lots of LB’s out. Good thing the Browns are coming to town. They have scored more than 20 points once and that was against the hapless Raiders. They have not given up many points this year…ranking 10th in scoring D. Could they contain the Bolts powerful offense?

SD should be favored by about 2 TD’s and the total around 38. I can’t imagine betting against the Bolts at this point. I probably wouldn’t touch the total because who knows how many, if any, points the Brownies will score.

“The Man” has SD giving 12.5 and the total at 41. I am really liking the Bolts…the Browns win against the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets didn’t impress me.

Denver @ Pittsburgh

The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off two huge losses at Oakland and Atlanta. They have killed themselves this year with turnovers. Meanwhile, their great D tends to give up TD’s after these TO’s rather than holding them to FG’s. However, when the opposing teams have less than 100 yards of total offense, you should win the game. Denver meanwhile lost the battle of the horses by a length. Will Jake the Snake get revenge from last year’s AFC championship game?

Being in Pittsburgh, I know the Steelers are favored by about 2 and the total is around 36. I wouldn’t touch this game. If Big Ben doesn’t throw the INT’s and the special teams hand the ball to the other team as regularly as my wife’s monthly bitchy schedule, the Steelers could be 5 – 2…but they aren’t and haven’t proved they can avoid the costly TO’s. If they don’t make the mistakes, they will win this game…the question then is how many turnovers will they have.

“The Man” has the Steelers giving 2.5 and the total at 36.5. Stay away from this game…

Colts @ Pats

Here we go again. The Colts are involved in the game of the week and the preview of the AFC Championship game. The Pats are coming off an impressive win at MN. Their only loss is at home to Denver, whom the Colts just beat on the road. The transitive property of football means that the Colts should win. The Pats bring in the 8th best rushing attack against the worst rushing defense. The Colts bring in the second best offense to face the 3rd best scoring defense. Brady vs. Manning. Sweatshirt Bill is being hailed as a mastermind…can he muster up enough magic to stop this offense?

I am guessing the Pats are a small home favorite and the total around 47. I think this is a stay away game. Unlike last week where we said you don’t give Peyton points, this was against a team that hadn’t scored more than 20 points all year.

“The Man” has the Pats giving 3 and the total at 48…I still hate giving Peyton any points, but Sweatshirt Bill might be the guy who can do it…stay away and enjoy the other winnings.

Oakland @ Seattle

Seattle needs this game badly. This is the definition of must win. Seneca didn’t play bad after having a week to prepare, but the KC offense was just too much for the Seahawk D. Oakland meanwhile comes off a win against the Steelers in which they had less than 100 yards of total offense.

Seattle will be favored by about a TD and the total in the high 30’s. I think Seattle will win and probably cover anything less than a TD, but I can’t recommend anyone wager on Seneca without Shaun in the backfield.

“The Man” has Seattle giving 7.5 and the total at 37…I am guessing ESPN was more excited about Moss vs. Shaun at the beginning of the year…can’t touch this game with Seneca playing.