Super Gurus

I told you that the post season is the Gurus time. Some have mocked calling us a joke. Some have been faithful followers and are starting to get the Gurus. Two weeks ago, the Gurus had another monster week going 3-1 overall, but cutting the annual deficit faster the George W can send more troops to Iraq. The deficit is a mere 6.5 stars on the year and today, we look to get into the black after a dismal start to the year dropping us to our largest deficit ever of over 30 stars. However, we are back and better than ever.

This game is simple. If Peyton Manning comes out on fire, the Colts win and win big. If he struggles early, the Bears will make a game of it. I don't care much about the Rex Grossman side...he is not going to win or lose this game, their defense will. I am betting on the Bears D to step up big and keep their team in the game. Take the generous 7 points for 2 stars.

I actually think the total is the best play. 47.5 is the most recent number I saw. The Bears are giving up points on D and their offense will be able to move the ball on the Colts. Go over the total of 47.5 for 4 stars. If Peyton finds the holes and scores at will, then this over will be in the bag at half.

There are 3 prop bets that I like: 1) Total INT's in the game of 2.5 - go over this number for 3 stars. The Bears are one of the best teams in the league at taking the ball away and we all know Rex's tendancies. 2) Go over the total number of Bears to score of 3 (kickers included). Rex will throw at least one...they will get at least one rushing...and the extra point makes three...not to mention the defense and special teams like to score as well...take this for 3 stars. 3) Peyton Manning over 22.5 completions for 3 stars as well. The Colts will attack the weakness of this defense, which is underneath passes. The Bears have the best deep pass defense in the league, but they let the passes up underneath to prevent the big play. Peyton will be patient and take the 10 yard completions.

Conference Champs are...

I didn't have time due to travel this week for work to do a thought provoking write-up on our blog. My book has both games at 3 and the total for the Bears at 43 and Colts total at 47.5. The Gurus picked up 5.5 stars last week cutting the annual deficit to 14.3 stars.

I think that the Saints have a legit shot at winning this game outright. Therefore, I will take the points in Chicago. I really like the over in that game as well. The Bears defense has been anything but stellar and now the #1 offense in the league is coming to town. Before people start screaming about a dome team in the cold remember that Drew Brees went to school not far from Chicago at Purdue. He will be able to handle the cold just fine. Take the Saints for 2 and the over for 3

I am really torn on the Colts vs. Patriots. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. The bottom line is the Colts rush defense has been so much better of late and this was their achilles heal. Rodney Harrison is out for the Patriots, which means Chad Scott will be getting playing time and that can't be good. I think Tom Brady's run ends today inside the dome and Peyton Manning makes his first trip to the Super Bowl. GIve the 3. I would also trend to over the 47.5...this has all the potential in the world of being a shootout. The Colts score much more in the dome than outdoors. Take the Colts for 3 and the over for 4

Talent or Mystique?

Patriots @ Chargers

Sweatshirt Bill and pretty boy Tom Brady take their show on the road to visit the San Diego Super Chargers. All week everyone has been crowning Tom Brady the next Joe Montana and Sweatshirt Bill as a genius. I was shocked to see most of the ESPN experts picking against them and going with the home team.

Tom Brady is amazing. Jabar Gaffney was sitting on his couch after being cut by the Eagles and before that the Texans. Tom Brady made him look like Terrell Owens last week with 8 catches for 104 yards. He spreads the ball around as good as anyone in the game today. Laurence Maroney carried the load last week with 18 carries to Corey Dillon's 10. These two certainly make a formidable tandem to deal with. The Patriots have certainly found their offense lately. Since their shutout in Miami 5 weeks ago, the Patriots are averaging over 35 points a game. Look out Shawne. Tom Brady is going to have to win this game. The Patriots running attack will not have much success against the Chargers front seven. If their is a weakness in the Chargers D it is the pass coverage...which means they better protect Tom Brady.

On defense, they are going to be without Rodney Harrison. They will need the front 7 to get pressure on young Phillip Rivers and confuse him. The front 7 will also need to stop the run and contain LT as much as possible to force this game into Rivers' hand.

Marty Ball is on the hot seat. He has a reputation for not being able to win the big games with his conservative approach. Rumors are that Marty is not going to get involved in the play calling. With Harrison out, Antonio Gates becomes the focus. Rivers will need to find him down the seams to loosen up the Patriots defense. This will cause the LB's to have to play a little deeper and will make the play action and running game all the more important. Phillip comes into his first post season game with high expectations...luckily with LT it makes it all a little easier.

Defensively, Shawne Merriman had a monster year with 17 sacks while missing 4 games due to suspension. Jamal Williams and Luis Castillo are studs up front. The front 7 of the Chargers need to control the game by keeping the rushing attack of the Patriots in check and knocking Brady around. If they don't get pressure on Brady, he will pick apart their secondary.

"The Man" has the Chargers giving 4.5 and the total at 46.5. Tom Brady is a great big game QB, but eventually talent will overcome...i.e. the Chargers are just a better team. They have more talent on both sides of the ball and will win this game. Yesterday I broke one of my rules by giving Peyton Manning points and got burnt. Today, I am going to do the same and hope for a better result. I think the talent of the Chargers is too over whelming to not give the 4.5. Take the Chargers and give the 4.5 for 2 shekels. I also really like the under in this game. I know both teams can score, but this is the playoffs. Things get a little tighter and the game plans get more intense. I love the under enough to make it a 4 star selection with the #2 and #7 scoring defenses on the field.

The Frozen Tundra of Soldier Field

The Guru was 3 - 1 on his lines and totals yesterday, but one of the wins was not an official play. Therefore, we only picked up 1.7 stars yesterday, but nothing like cutting the deficit...huh W? Our analysis now takes us to Soldier Field...

Seahawks @ Bears

The Seattle Seahawks travel to Chicago to face the Chicago Bears. The Seahawks come into this game limping. They escaped last week's game after Tony Romo fumbled the snap on a FG that was as long as an extra point. They went 9 -7 in the easiest division in football and barely made the playoffs. They are really beat up in the secondary, which Dallas didn't attempt to exploit at all by only throwing 6 passes each to Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens. So, they basically don't have a shot in this game, right? Not so fast my friend.

Matt Hasselbeck has struggled since coming back from his knee injury. His passer rating has been over 90 in only two of those 7 games and over 100 only once. On his career he has completed over 60% of his passes, but since the injury he has done that only once. This game will clearly hinge on his ability to make plays. The Bears weakness on defense, if there is one, is against the pass. They have had to go to more blitzing since Tommie Harris went down with a season ending knee injury. The onus of this game is going to be on the OL of the Seahawks and Matt Hasselbeck to not make mistakes.

Defensively, the Seahawks have one thing going for them...they can pressure the QB. Rex Grossman has not handled the pressure well of late. Seahawks rank 6th in the league in sacks. They love to blitz the LB's up the middle, which is where Rex handles the pressure worst. The Seahawks need to pressure Rex into mistakes and get the Soldier Field crowd booing early. On the other hand, they cannot allow Rex to hit the bomb to start the game and get the crowd into it with the patch work secondary they have out there.

For the Bears, the keys are simple...run the ball and don't make any stupid mistakes. The offensive line has the potential to dominate this game with the bad weather that is being predicted and Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson running behind them. They must protect Rex Grossman and give him the time to pick apart the beaten up secondary of the Seahawks.

On defense, they need to find their swagger. Since Tommie Harris went down, they have given up almost 27 points a game over their last four games...and that is not Bears football. Seattle has plenty of weapons to go to and a great leader in Hasselbeck. This game comes down to two things: 1) How many mistakes will Rex make and 2) can the Bears find their once vaunted D.

"The Man" has Chicago giving 9 and the total at 37. Based on Rex's recent troubles and Hasslebeck's leadership, I just think this is too many points to give the Seahawks. I honestly think the Seahawks can win this game, so you have to take the points for 2 coins. Based on the bad weather report, I wouldn't touch the total, but would trend to go over this relatively small number. I think there will be at least one defensive score and that is always bad for a total bet. No official play on the total, but trend to over.

Payton's Place...Definitely!!!

Eagles @ Saints

Jeff Garcia leads the Eagles into the divisional round of the playoffs to face the New Orleans Saints. Anyone not rooting for the Saints and the city of New Orleans has less heart than Donald Trump...at least he is giving the alcoholic/drug addict a second chance...despite all the bad press from Rosie. This game has the two top ranked offenses facing each other...will this Guru make the same mistake as last week and go over a large number in anticipation of a shootout? We shall see.

The Eagles are flying high on a six game winning streak. They seemed to be eerily similar to my defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers of last year. They are the hottest team in the NFL...hands down. Jeff Garcia has only thrown 2 INT's since replacing the injured Donovan McNabb. Meanwhile, Bryan Westbrook has been on fire. He is getting more touches in both the receiving game and the running game. This certainly is a high powered offense. Don't forget that Donte Stallworth didn't play the last time these teams met.

The Eagles defense meanwhile continues to struggle against the run. Their pass defense has been pretty good all year with Brain Dawkins and Lito Sheppard, not to mention the blitzing scheme that Jim Johnson runs. However, Lito Sheppard is out for this game with a dislocated elbow. So their defense will have to create pressure on Brees and force him into a couple of mistakes.

On the other side of the ball, the problem for the Eagles D is that the Saints are 4th in the league in sacks allowed. Drew Brees has only been sacked 23 times this year. With Sheppard out, this give him the opportunity to hit for some big plays. Also, Sean Payton has done a great job of utilizing Reggie Bush all year. Reggie Bush is never going to be a 25 carries a game guy. However, Payton has him in all different types of formations looking for mismatches and getting the ball to him in space. Oh, did I mention Deuce McAllister had 1,000+ yards and 10 TD's this season?

The Saints defense isn't something necessarily worth something to write home about. They are ranked 11th overall, but only 23rd against the run. Mike McKenzie is probably the best known of the corp, but the great Scotts (Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita) are no slouches. Fred Thomas in his 11th year seems to be every opposing teams favorite target...and there is good reason for that. He has given up some big plays and some costly penalties. Looks for the Eagles to exploit him as many others have tried to do.

"The Man" has the Saints giving 5 and the total at 49. I am really torn on this game. It wouldn't surprise me if the Eagles won outright, therefore you better take the points. However, without Lito Sheppard, I could see the Eagles D having more holes in it than OJ's alibi. Ultimately, I would take the points, but nothing official. As for the total, I think it will be a shootout, but 28 - 20 doesn't get you over this total. However, I guarantee at least one if not both teams get to 30...therefore, take the over for 2 coins.

Peyton's Place...NOT!!!

The Gurus come into this week down 19.8 stars on the year after losing on our only play last week. I had a very detailed, funny write-up on the Colts vs. Ravens game done with references to Colts leaving in the middle of the night, GuruJoe being absent from this board for a very long time, and I even threw in a Rosie vs. Donald reference. I had each part of the game broken down. Now time is getting short I can't go through it all. So here is an abbreviated write-up:

Colts @ Ravens

M & T Bank Stadium is not the same as the dome you are used to playing in Peyton. I think there are basically two keys to this game: 1) How does Peyton Manning handle the pressure from the Ravens D and 2) can the Colts rush D step up again?

1) The Ravens D is first overall and points allowed. They are second in sacks. Last year my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers showed how Peyton Manning doesn't like much pressure, especially up the middle. Ravens will exploit this.

2) While Jamal Lewis is clearly in the twilight of his career, he still had 1,000+ yards and 9 TD's. Baltimore ranked 11th in the league in rush attempts despite having the 25th best rushing offense. Brian Billick ran the ball and played defense to win his games. Do you think he is going to abandon that game plan this week? The Colts rush D must step up and force the game into Steve McNair's hands. Jamal Lewis cannot gain 3 yards a carry and keep Peyton and company on the sidelines.

"The Man" has the Ravens giving 3.5 and the total at 42.5. I personally think that the Ravens dominate this game with defense and the running game. I would lay 3 sheckles on the Ravens today. I also think the total is way too high. Throw 3 more sheckles on the under.

Games today

Nothing really hits me as a strong play today. I would trend to both underdogs and both overs. Nothing official on the plays today. Sit tight for next weeks games.

Playoffs are upon us...

As you can imagine, the Gurus had a day of mourning yesterday for the resignation of Coach Cowher. Although I personally think he underachieved in his time in Pittsburgh, he was certainly an above average coach and a great guy. He was a great face for the organization...now we will have Whizzy for the next 15 years is my guess.

I will start with today's games and come back shortly with tomorrow's games. The gurus ended the regular season with a bang hitting all 6 of their rated plays and gaining 20 stars...that cuts the annual deficit to a mere 14.3 stars...finally smaller than that of the U. S. I told you that this is the Gurus time of year and I meant it.

Chiefs @ Colts

Colts #32 rush defense meet Larry Johnson. He will certainly be seeing a lot of you in this game. Trent Green has been very average since his return, but he won the game last week that he needed for his team to make the playoffs. The Chiefs games have actually gone under six of their last 8 games and this is mostly due to their run first philosophy. The Colts on the other hand have all the fire power in the world. Peyton Manning is the best QB to not have won a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, I think that defense is going to prevent him from doing so again this year.

"The Man" has the Colts giving 7 and the the total at 50. Part of me thinks the Colts Rush D will step up and limit LJ to less than 200 yards and their offense will fire on all cylinders. Part of me thinks the Chiefs play keep away with LJ and they keep it close. Based on the rush D, I will take the points and the Chiefs, although I think Indi wins a close one. I love the over here...50...this game will reach 70...maybe by halftime. Take the over for 5 stars...this is only your third 5 star selection of the year.

Cowboys @ Seahawks

The Seahawks had to go to the scrap heap this past week to find someone who can play in the secondary. Is it possible that this could put a smile on Terrrel Owens' face or will the rain dampen his spirits? Tony Romo hasn't played as well down the stretch, but still played adequate. The Dallas pass defense is what scares me the most. The Seahawks do two things well on D, rush the passer...oh wait, that is only one thing. They can't stop the run and don't fare real well against the pass either and now the secondary is beat up.

"The Man" has the Seahawks giving 2 and the total at 47. I have to go with the Cowboys against the beat up Seahawks, therefore take the points. The over is very intriguing, but I would ultimately stay away due to the weather forecast of 80% showers. If the pre-game doesn't show that to be the case, check back for a possible play.

Week 17: the late edition

Bills @ Baltimore

The Bills finally lost one against the spread...and of course it is the only week all year I chose them. I can't believe no one is blasting me for my Just Punt (JP) lines considering he is actually not playing that bad. However, the Ravens D will never be confused with that of the Titans, Dolphins, Jets, Texans or Packers...just some of the teams he has played. Baltimore needs this win to ensure a bye and could slide into home field throughout if the Chargers somehow manage to lose to the upstart Cardinals.

"The Man" has Baltimore giving 9 and the total at 35. I don't see the average Buffalo D being able to contain Air McNair and the revitalized Ravens attack. Again, the big spreads are going to kill me...take the Ravens and give the points...4 stars. I also am very tempted by the over, but would ultimately stay away due to the JP factor.

Dolphins @ Colts

Cleo Lemon is making his first NFL start at the Colts house on Sunday. Luckily the game plan will be for him to hand the ball to Ronnie Brown...and then do it again and again and again and again and...I think you catch my drift. The Cotls meanwhile will be playing at the same time as the Ravens, so they will not know if they have a chance to get to a bye week other than scoreboard watching throughout the game. Someone please explain how the Colts managed to lose to the Texans in such a critical game?

"The Man" has the Colts giving 9 and the total at only 42. I really like the Colts as they have something to play for and the other team is getting their first start from their QB. I am actually going to say that Colts win, but will take the points due to the dreaded back door cover. The over is what I am jumping on right now. I know the Dolphins have been playing D, but the Colts are averaging over 30 points per game at home this season...no reason to believe this ends this week. Take the over for 3 stars.

Falcons @ Eagles

The Dirty Birds travel to Philly looking for some love. However, all the love left last night when the Giants won. The Eagles will know by their kickoff if they need to win or not, depending on teh results of the Cowboys game. I am assuming the Cowboys will win and the Eagles will need to win. The Falcons will come into this game without heart and nothing to play for.

"The Man" has the Eagles giving 8.5 and the total at 43. I really like the Eagles in this game regardless of what it means, but won't make it an official play. I like the over if the Eagles need to win and the under if they don't...so check the Dallas score. Ultimately, this is a no touch game.

SF @ Broncos

The 49ers had been playing tough until last week when they lost to the Cardinals last week with their playoff lives on the line. The Broncos may need to win depending on the result of the Chiefs game. Another one we will have to wait for certain.

"The Man" has the Broncos giving 10 and the total at 39. The Broncos will win this game, but I think they only cover if they need it. So, check the Chiefs score before making a final decision here. Ultimately, I would go under the total due to weather and the Broncos stifling D.

Cardinals @ Chargers

The Chargers are going to need a win to secure home field throughout the playoffs. The Cardinals have nothing to play for including a lame duck coach and Dennis Green is most likely not going to be back.

"The Man" has the Chargers giving 14 and the total at 44. I think the Cardinals should be able to cover the large spread, but the Chargers win. I would trend to under the total, but wouldn't play either the line or the total.

Packers @ Bears

Packers need more than a mircale to make the playoffs...I am not sure what you would call it...I think I have a better chance of getting the "Girls Next Door" to move in with me than they have of making the playoffs. The Bears are playing for nothing. I will take Favre's heart over a meaningless game for the Bears.

"The Man" has the Bears giving 3 and the total at 37.5. I would trend to the Packers and Favre and the over, but no official play on this game.