I hope week 11 leads us to heaven...

Basically hoping week 11 is like week 7 is that we need to get back to the positive side and start cutting the deficit. If you don’t believe in the Gurus, then take your chances on the other side and see how your year ends up. I am going to add a little something to this week’s write-up and that is tell you my leaning on each side and line…then come back with picks later in the week.

Rams @ Carolina

Rams come off another rough loss to division rival Seattle and also manage to lose their starting left tackle and CB for the year. Wow, which hurts more, the loss or the injuries? Carolina meanwhile was booed at halftime, but came back to have an impressive second half and defeat the Bucs easily. Julius Peppers is a man among boys on the field…as he harassed poor Bruce Gradkowski almost every play. The offensive line of both teams have been playing terrible, so dare I say that is more to Carolina’s advantage than the Rams with their DL and now Orlando Pace gone…Marc Bulger will become very acquainted with Mr. Peppers.

I am guessing the Panthers are favored by about 4 or 5 and the total around 42. I would ultimately stay away from this game regardless. However, if forced to play this game, I would go with the Panthers and the over. My only concern is the Panthers can’t run the ball, which is the Rams weakness on D, but with Fisher out in the defensive backfield I am sure Mr. Smith should get some opportunities.

“The Man” has Carolina giving 6.5 and the total at 45…my mind hasn’t changed any. If Carolina had been more impressive lately, then I would be jumping on them especially with Pace and Fisher gone.

Skins @ TB

This is one of three pillow fights on the schedule this week. Clinton Portis breaks his hand, so the Skins change QB’s. Jason Campbell must be wondering who he pissed off to get thrown to the lions den…actually more like walking the plank…without his top weapon. Grad meanwhile has the Bucs offense running as smooth as a Hummer with no shocks on block wheels. On the other side of the ball, neither the Bucs nor the Skins D is imposing fears on opposing offenses.

I am guessing that TB would be a small favorite to pick ‘em game and the total around 39. This clearly is a stay away game as who knows what Jason will be able to do without Portis…we know Grad can’t do much. If I had a gun to my head, my inclination would be to take the Bucs and the under with the Bucs’ young QB having more real game experience.

“The Man” has the Bucs giving 3 and the total at 33.5. The game started as a pick ‘em, but the line has climbed to three. I guess more people have faith in the rookie who has played than the guy getting his first start. This is still stay away. The total looks really low, but with two young QB’s there could be a lot of stalled drives. I would trend to the over this small a number, but would still stay away.

Bungles @ NO

Cinci comes into this game still beat up and giving up a huge lead at home to the Bolts. The Aints played a tough game in Pittsburgh, but ultimately the Gurus and the Steelers were victorious. Cinci found its offense last week putting up 41 points…and still managed to lose the game. Carson had a key fumble late in the game to help the Bolts to victory. I have been telling you all year the Bungles were not going to be able to survive all those injuries and this game epitomized it. The Aints continue to play with heart and could have won the game at Heinz field last week. The Aints come into this game with the #1 passing offense against the 28th ranked pass D of the Bungles. This to me is the key stat. The Bungles made a living last year on the INT and they are not getting them as often this year.

NO should be favored by about 3 and the total around 45. I can’t say that I would like this line, but the over would be very intriguing to me. NO has averaged almost 28 points per game over their last 4 games and the Bungles are putting up over 26 per game over the same time period. Let’s see the final lines and total.

“The Man” has the Aints giving 3 and the total at 51.5. I would not touch either of these lines, but if forced to play I would go with the Aints and the over. This number is just too high to bet over it.

TN @ Philly

Jimmy Johnson must be wondering what to do here. We know he loves to blitz and usually his team does a good job, but they must contain against the Young one named Vince. TN has been playing better lately, if you can ignore the Jags game two weeks ago. Vince has been playing pretty much as expected…low completion percentage, but making a few plays with his legs. I am going to guess that Johnson keeps him guessing this week. Philly meanwhile comes into the game after beating up on the Skins and still having the #1 ranked offense.

Philly should be favored by about 10 or 11 and the total around 38. Titans have been playing just well enough to scare me away from any number over 10. If forced, I would ultimately go under if it is at the 38 because who knows how much TN will score. TN has given up 3 TD’s or less only twice all year…one of them against the Colts and the other against the Fins. Philly would be the most intriguing play for me.

“The Man” has Philly giving 13 and the total at 43. Both numbers are too high for this guru. I would tend to go under the total and Philly if forced, but neither will be an official play.

Chicago @ NYJ

Chicago makes their second trip in two weeks back to the Meadowlands to face the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets. Chicago was having a hard time finding their offensive rhythm on Sunday night until Thomas Jones broke a long run on a 3-22 and they scored 4 plays later. It seems most teams are trying to copy the blueprint on how to beat the Bears from the Cards, which is to blitz Rex and blitz him often. Chicago is the #1 rated D facing the 25th ranked O of the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets. The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets come off a huge win at NE this past weekend. It was an ugly game with bad weather, but the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets proved their meddle and took down the giant of the division. This win keeps the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets right in the middle of the playoff race. I am not so sure Chad will have the same success this week.

I am guessing Chicago is favored by at least a TD and maybe as high as 10. The total should be in the high 30’s as the Bears should be able to score on the lowly J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets D. I would definitely be interested in Chicago in anything under a TD. I would bet over as the Bears could put up 30 like they have in more than half their games thus far, but would stay away.

“The Man” has Chicago giving 7 and the total at 38. The over and the Bears are both intriguing to me. Chicago has gone over the total in each of the last 6 games. NYJ had gone over five games in a row before the last two…one of which was against Cleveland and the other in the slopfest that caused the Pats to change their playing surface. If the Bears handled the more talented G-men like that, what will they do to the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets.

MN @ Miami

Talk about two teams going in opposite directions. Miami comes off two wins against KC and Chicago. MN meanwhile come into this game off two losses to GB and SF…ouch…that will hurt your playoff chances. This game will put 2 top ten defenses against two very average offenses. Joey has been throwing to the other team as often as Elton John makes passes at bartenders, while Old Man Johnson is wishing he qualified for Medicare now. I would rather watch the world championship of midget tossing over this game any day of the week.

I am guessing based on the last two games by each team that Miami is favored by about 4 and the total around 34. Ultimately, this line would have to be way off for me to look at it further, but I would tend to take Miami as they are coming on strong…after virtually being eliminated from the playoffs. The under could be very intriguing depending on the final line as neither team has an offense and their D’s are solid.

“The Man” has Miami giving 3 and the total at 33.5. Can you really bet under a number this low? I am intrigued GuruJoe…

Oakland @ KC

Trent Green gets back to action as the old school coach, Herm Edwards, does not believe in his stars losing their jobs because of injury…I only wonder how short the leash will be. I can tell you right now that I hate this game. A QB coming back after not playing for 9 weeks will either come out on fire to get his team back or have lots of rust. I tend to think it will be the first part, but you never know. The Oakland D meanwhile continues to impress…it is a shame the offense ahs no playbook…or heart…or sense of caring. Rumors are swirling that Brooks might take back the helm after Walter bashed the playbook. I don’t think it matters, but Brooks might be able to gun it to Moss a few times.

KC should be favored by about 9 and the total around 40. You all know by now that I think Oakland sucks. I would tend to lean toward the Chiefs, but would stay away due to Green’s inactivity. As for the total, I would be intrigued by anything under 40, but I bet it comes in closer to 37, which is just high enough to scare me away. The under would be the play if there was one.

“The Man” has KC giving 9.5 and the total at 36.5. Enough said above…stay away, but that under is still calling my name…

NE @ GB

The Pats come into this game losing two in a row for the first time since 2004. Brett Favre is starting to believe he can make a run and has cut down on the INT’s. If there is a more up and down team than the Pack let me know…beat MN on the road…after losing to Buffalo…which came after beating AZ and Miami…which came after losing a close at home to the Rams. GB’s biggest problem is defending the pass…and now they face a very mad Tom Brady. It should be interesting. The only good news for the Pack and Favre is the Pats have been vulnerable to the pass all year yielding over 220 yards per game…and this is against teams that have an average of the 21st best pass offenses in the league. Does Favre have any magic left?

The Pats will be favored by about a TD and the total around 43. I think Favre’s magic will come to an end this week and their playoff dreams will be shattered. I would ultimately stay away from the line unless NE is favored by less than a TD. The over is most intriguing as I think this could be a shootout on the frozen tundra.

“The Man” has the Pats giving 6 and the total at 44.5. GuruJoe, how many times have we been bitten by a Favre over this year? The over and Pats are both real intriguing to me. The Pats can’t lose three in a row, right? So the question is can they win by less than 6…I don’t think. GuruJoe I need your help here.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

I refuse to call any game the Steelers are involved with a pillow fight, so this is not the second one mentioned above. Browns suck, even if they do have the same record as the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. This game like all others will come down to the Steelers ability to protect the ball. I think they win this one easily, but a few brain farts by Big Ben and the Brownies could emerge victorious. The most glaring stat for this game is the putrid Cleveland offense and the two hurt CB’s.

Pittsburgh should be favored by about 7 and the total around 39. I would be very interested in the Steelers if the line is less than a TD, but any more and I have to stay away. Ultimately, I think there is a better chance of Pittsburgh winning big than Cleveland keeping close. I would stay away from the total no matter what it is as the Steelers could score 30 themselves or get bit by the turnover bug.

“The Man” has the Steelers giving 3 and the total at 37. I think the over will hit, but it won’t be an official play…you can’t bet Charlie Frye will score anything…however, this pass D might be just what he needs. I am very intrigued by the Steelers…I originally thought this line could be as high as 9 until I started looking a little more. This number looks way too small to me.

The Dirty Birds @ Baltimorons

Well, maybe the Michael Vick show isn’t all it was built up to be. After two career games against the Steelers and Bungles, Vick has gone back to the good ole days. He has completed just 45% of his passes and thrown 4 INT’s the past two games. On the flip side, he has had 154 rushing yards the past two weeks. Which Michael Vick will show up this week…I know Atlanta is hoping for the one from the 2 earlier games. The Ravens meanwhile come into this game after coming back from a 26 – 7 deficit against the Titans…yes I said Titans. The Ravens displayed no heart early, but were able to come back and pull out the victory. The Ravens offense has been on a roll averaging almost 30 points a game since BB fired The Fossil and took over the play calling. This game has the #1 rushing offense facing the #2 rushing defense. The Ravens are most likely going to be without Ray Lewis who is having some back problems. I don’t see that it will matter much as the Ravens have decent depth at LB and the Dirty Birds rushing numbers clearly are skewed because of Vick.

I am guessing that the Baltimorons are favored by about a TD and the total in the upper 30’s. The way their offense has been scoring and without Ray Lewis, the over might be the most intriguing play here. The Falcons have given up almost 28 points per game the last five weeks and the D is still beat up. I like the Ravens as well, but I think the over might be the better play.

“The Man” has the Batlimorons giving 4 and the total at 40.5. I think this number is too small on the line and total. GuruJoe, am I nuts picking an over of a Ravens game? They have gone over 4 games in row…The Ravens might also be a play, GuruJoe talk me out of it.

Buffalo @ Houston

Do you believe that someone actually has to watch this game? I feel bad for the NFL Network guy who has to report on this game. This is the second pillow fight of the weekend. Just Punt gets hit more times than a heroin addicts veins. Maybe Mario Williams can have his break out game…if he can’t do it this week, then they best be worried. The Texans come into this game on a little roll having beat the Jags twice and keeping games close against the G-men in recent weeks. The Bills were on the verge last week of being down 14 – 3 at half until a game changing fumble returned for a TD made it tied at 10.

I am guessing the Texans will be favored by about 4 and the total in the mid-30’s. There is no way I play this game. However, if I was forced into making a call like that smile George W. has to fake after losing the house and senate because of his ineptness (or voters stupidity), I would lean toward the Texans and the under. If you play this one, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn I want to sell you.

“The Man” has Houston giving 2.5 and the total at 36.5.

Detroit @ AZ

The third and final pillow fight has the Cowardly Lions coming off a horrendous home loss to the 49ers visiting the AZ Cardinals. The Cards look like a team that has quit on their coach. They haven’t scored more than 3 TD’s since the almost upset of the Bears…and since then they have played the Boys, Packers and Raiders.

I am guessing AZ is a small home favorite and the total in the low 40’s. Sticking with the new write-up I will say the Cards actually win and cover one and I would go over the total. However, I would not recommend anyone play this game.

“The Man” has AZ giving 2 and the total at 44.5. Like my wife says on a regular basis…please don’t touch.

Seattle @ SF

SF is in the hunt in the NFC for the wild card spot. They have played decent the last two weeks, but the competition has been the Lions and Vikes…and you know what we think of these teams. Shaun Alexander may return for this game and that should help boost their rushing attack against the somewhat soft 18th rush D of the 49ers. Seneca is most likely going to start again and he has done an admirable job against the Rams, Raiders, and Chiefs going 2 – 1…there isn’t a person in Seattle that would be upset with that.

I am guessing the Hawks will be favored by about 3 and the total around 40. Are the 49ers for real after two wins against bad teams? I am not sold on that yet. Let’s see the final line and total. If I am correct, I would tend to stick with Seneca and go over, but let’s see the final line. I doubt this will be a play this week.

“The Man” has Seattle giving 3.5 and the total at 44.5. I stick with my leaning, but would ultimately stay away.

Colts @ Boys

The undefeated Indi Colts come to Texas for a showdown against the Cowboys. The Colts slid by a bad Bills team last week after having two impressive road victories against the Bucking Mules (Broncos) and the Pats. The Boys come into this game off a bye week…what’s that?...They played last week?...Yeah, but it was only AZ…as I was saying, they come into this week off a bye week. The last good team Dallas beat was the ’95 Steelers in the Super Bowl…and we got robbed by the refs…ok, just kidding. They beat Carolina handily in week 8. However, the rest of their wins this year include: Skins, TN, Houston, and AZ…their losses include a tight one against the Jags to open the year, Philly on Drew’s mistakes, Peyton’s little brother manhandling them, and the Skins on a blocked FG. What does all this tell us? Peyton is better than his little brother, so by the transitive property of football the Colts win easily.

In the infamous words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. The Boys have a tough D, but clearly have been susceptible to the long pass…I did say Peyton was coming to town didn’t I? I hate to tell Griese and friends, but this might be the year…they don’t pop the champagne. I know the Colts are vulnerable on D against the run, but as long as they stay within one possession, I have no doubt Peyton will take them on a winning drive. I think the Colts should be a small road favorite and the total around 50. I wouldn’t touch the line, but think the Colts prevail. The over could be a play, but I am guessing it might even be higher. I would go over anything less than 48.

“The Man” has the Colts giving 1 and the total at 49…the over is still intriguing to me here…GuruJoe any chance both these teams don’t score in the high 20’s?

Bolts @ Mules

I mean Broncos…The Bolts come off a miraculous comeback against the Bungles. The Broncos slid by the Raiders again…bastards killed my added play. The Bolts D was non-existent last week without Castillo and Merriman…luckily they play the conservative Mike Shanahan this week. The Broncos are averaging 17 points a game, but had been better with two consecutive 31 point games in a row before last week. The Bolts meanwhile are averaging 33 points per game. Are you ready for another shootout? I think that the game starts slow and conservative and then both teams start opening up. The Broncos should be able to run on the depleted Bolts D and Jake just needs to not throw the game away…but that is asking a lot of him.

I think the Broncos should be favored by about 2 and the total in the high 30’s. I think the Mules get it done at home and cover this one, but it would not be an official play. The over could be depending on where it comes out.

“The Man” has the Mules giving 2.5 and the total at 42. I am still looking at this game and thinking the over should hit fairly easily, but then again I thought the Mules would kill Oakland after Mike’s trash talking. GuruJoe?

NYG @ Jags

The G-men come into this game decimated on the defensive side of the ball…Tuck, Strahan, Madison are out…Osi, Short, Emmons are beat up…the offensive side of the ball is starting to take their hits…Luke is out…Toomer was hurt before last week…Barber is probable. The Jags come off an embarrassing loss at home to the Texans in which Garrard threw 4 INT’s. The Jags D should come out ticked off and ready to make some plays…the question is whether the offense will as well.

I think the Jags should be favored by about 4 or 5 and the total in the mid-30’s. I would stay away from the game in general due to all the injuries on both sides of the ball for both teams. I would lean towards the Jags and under, but neither will be an official play unless the line is way off.

“The Man” has the Jags giving 3.5 and the total at 39.5. Nothing has changed from my analysis above…