Gridiron Gurus

Super Gurus

2007-02-04T13:41:00.000-05:00

I told you that the post season is the Gurus time. Some have mocked calling us a joke. Some have been faithful followers and are starting to get the Gurus. Two weeks ago, the Gurus had another monster week going 3-1 overall, but cutting the annual deficit faster the George W can send more troops to Iraq. The deficit is a mere 6.5 stars on the year and today, we look to get into the black after a dismal start to the year dropping us to our largest deficit ever of over 30 stars. However, we are back and better than ever.

This game is simple. If Peyton Manning comes out on fire, the Colts win and win big. If he struggles early, the Bears will make a game of it. I don't care much about the Rex Grossman side...he is not going to win or lose this game, their defense will. I am betting on the Bears D to step up big and keep their team in the game. Take the generous 7 points for 2 stars.

I actually think the total is the best play. 47.5 is the most recent number I saw. The Bears are giving up points on D and their offense will be able to move the ball on the Colts. Go over the total of 47.5 for 4 stars. If Peyton finds the holes and scores at will, then this over will be in the bag at half.

There are 3 prop bets that I like: 1) Total INT's in the game of 2.5 - go over this number for 3 stars. The Bears are one of the best teams in the league at taking the ball away and we all know Rex's tendancies. 2) Go over the total number of Bears to score of 3 (kickers included). Rex will throw at least one...they will get at least one rushing...and the extra point makes three...not to mention the defense and special teams like to score as well...take this for 3 stars. 3) Peyton Manning over 22.5 completions for 3 stars as well. The Colts will attack the weakness of this defense, which is underneath passes. The Bears have the best deep pass defense in the league, but they let the passes up underneath to prevent the big play. Peyton will be patient and take the 10 yard completions.

Conference Champs are...

2007-01-21T12:39:00.000-05:00

I didn't have time due to travel this week for work to do a thought provoking write-up on our blog. My book has both games at 3 and the total for the Bears at 43 and Colts total at 47.5. The Gurus picked up 5.5 stars last week cutting the annual deficit to 14.3 stars.

I think that the Saints have a legit shot at winning this game outright. Therefore, I will take the points in Chicago. I really like the over in that game as well. The Bears defense has been anything but stellar and now the #1 offense in the league is coming to town. Before people start screaming about a dome team in the cold remember that Drew Brees went to school not far from Chicago at Purdue. He will be able to handle the cold just fine. Take the Saints for 2 and the over for 3

I am really torn on the Colts vs. Patriots. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. The bottom line is the Colts rush defense has been so much better of late and this was their achilles heal. Rodney Harrison is out for the Patriots, which means Chad Scott will be getting playing time and that can't be good. I think Tom Brady's run ends today inside the dome and Peyton Manning makes his first trip to the Super Bowl. GIve the 3. I would also trend to over the 47.5...this has all the potential in the world of being a shootout. The Colts score much more in the dome than outdoors. Take the Colts for 3 and the over for 4

Talent or Mystique?

2007-01-14T11:21:00.000-05:00

Patriots @ Chargers

Sweatshirt Bill and pretty boy Tom Brady take their show on the road to visit the San Diego Super Chargers. All week everyone has been crowning Tom Brady the next Joe Montana and Sweatshirt Bill as a genius. I was shocked to see most of the ESPN experts picking against them and going with the home team.

Tom Brady is amazing. Jabar Gaffney was sitting on his couch after being cut by the Eagles and before that the Texans. Tom Brady made him look like Terrell Owens last week with 8 catches for 104 yards. He spreads the ball around as good as anyone in the game today. Laurence Maroney carried the load last week with 18 carries to Corey Dillon's 10. These two certainly make a formidable tandem to deal with. The Patriots have certainly found their offense lately. Since their shutout in Miami 5 weeks ago, the Patriots are averaging over 35 points a game. Look out Shawne. Tom Brady is going to have to win this game. The Patriots running attack will not have much success against the Chargers front seven. If their is a weakness in the Chargers D it is the pass coverage...which means they better protect Tom Brady.

On defense, they are going to be without Rodney Harrison. They will need the front 7 to get pressure on young Phillip Rivers and confuse him. The front 7 will also need to stop the run and contain LT as much as possible to force this game into Rivers' hand.

Marty Ball is on the hot seat. He has a reputation for not being able to win the big games with his conservative approach. Rumors are that Marty is not going to get involved in the play calling. With Harrison out, Antonio Gates becomes the focus. Rivers will need to find him down the seams to loosen up the Patriots defense. This will cause the LB's to have to play a little deeper and will make the play action and running game all the more important. Phillip comes into his first post season game with high expectations...luckily with LT it makes it all a little easier.

Defensively, Shawne Merriman had a monster year with 17 sacks while missing 4 games due to suspension. Jamal Williams and Luis Castillo are studs up front. The front 7 of the Chargers need to control the game by keeping the rushing attack of the Patriots in check and knocking Brady around. If they don't get pressure on Brady, he will pick apart their secondary.

"The Man" has the Chargers giving 4.5 and the total at 46.5. Tom Brady is a great big game QB, but eventually talent will overcome...i.e. the Chargers are just a better team. They have more talent on both sides of the ball and will win this game. Yesterday I broke one of my rules by giving Peyton Manning points and got burnt. Today, I am going to do the same and hope for a better result. I think the talent of the Chargers is too over whelming to not give the 4.5. Take the Chargers and give the 4.5 for 2 shekels. I also really like the under in this game. I know both teams can score, but this is the playoffs. Things get a little tighter and the game plans get more intense. I love the under enough to make it a 4 star selection with the #2 and #7 scoring defenses on the field.

The Frozen Tundra of Soldier Field

2007-01-14T10:07:00.000-05:00

The Guru was 3 - 1 on his lines and totals yesterday, but one of the wins was not an official play. Therefore, we only picked up 1.7 stars yesterday, but nothing like cutting the deficit...huh W? Our analysis now takes us to Soldier Field...

Seahawks @ Bears

The Seattle Seahawks travel to Chicago to face the Chicago Bears. The Seahawks come into this game limping. They escaped last week's game after Tony Romo fumbled the snap on a FG that was as long as an extra point. They went 9 -7 in the easiest division in football and barely made the playoffs. They are really beat up in the secondary, which Dallas didn't attempt to exploit at all by only throwing 6 passes each to Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens. So, they basically don't have a shot in this game, right? Not so fast my friend.

Matt Hasselbeck has struggled since coming back from his knee injury. His passer rating has been over 90 in only two of those 7 games and over 100 only once. On his career he has completed over 60% of his passes, but since the injury he has done that only once. This game will clearly hinge on his ability to make plays. The Bears weakness on defense, if there is one, is against the pass. They have had to go to more blitzing since Tommie Harris went down with a season ending knee injury. The onus of this game is going to be on the OL of the Seahawks and Matt Hasselbeck to not make mistakes.

Defensively, the Seahawks have one thing going for them...they can pressure the QB. Rex Grossman has not handled the pressure well of late. Seahawks rank 6th in the league in sacks. They love to blitz the LB's up the middle, which is where Rex handles the pressure worst. The Seahawks need to pressure Rex into mistakes and get the Soldier Field crowd booing early. On the other hand, they cannot allow Rex to hit the bomb to start the game and get the crowd into it with the patch work secondary they have out there.

For the Bears, the keys are simple...run the ball and don't make any stupid mistakes. The offensive line has the potential to dominate this game with the bad weather that is being predicted and Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson running behind them. They must protect Rex Grossman and give him the time to pick apart the beaten up secondary of the Seahawks.

On defense, they need to find their swagger. Since Tommie Harris went down, they have given up almost 27 points a game over their last four games...and that is not Bears football. Seattle has plenty of weapons to go to and a great leader in Hasselbeck. This game comes down to two things: 1) How many mistakes will Rex make and 2) can the Bears find their once vaunted D.

"The Man" has Chicago giving 9 and the total at 37. Based on Rex's recent troubles and Hasslebeck's leadership, I just think this is too many points to give the Seahawks. I honestly think the Seahawks can win this game, so you have to take the points for 2 coins. Based on the bad weather report, I wouldn't touch the total, but would trend to go over this relatively small number. I think there will be at least one defensive score and that is always bad for a total bet. No official play on the total, but trend to over.

Payton's Place...Definitely!!!

2007-01-13T13:56:00.000-05:00

Eagles @ Saints

Jeff Garcia leads the Eagles into the divisional round of the playoffs to face the New Orleans Saints. Anyone not rooting for the Saints and the city of New Orleans has less heart than Donald Trump...at least he is giving the alcoholic/drug addict a second chance...despite all the bad press from Rosie. This game has the two top ranked offenses facing each other...will this Guru make the same mistake as last week and go over a large number in anticipation of a shootout? We shall see.

The Eagles are flying high on a six game winning streak. They seemed to be eerily similar to my defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers of last year. They are the hottest team in the NFL...hands down. Jeff Garcia has only thrown 2 INT's since replacing the injured Donovan McNabb. Meanwhile, Bryan Westbrook has been on fire. He is getting more touches in both the receiving game and the running game. This certainly is a high powered offense. Don't forget that Donte Stallworth didn't play the last time these teams met.

The Eagles defense meanwhile continues to struggle against the run. Their pass defense has been pretty good all year with Brain Dawkins and Lito Sheppard, not to mention the blitzing scheme that Jim Johnson runs. However, Lito Sheppard is out for this game with a dislocated elbow. So their defense will have to create pressure on Brees and force him into a couple of mistakes.

On the other side of the ball, the problem for the Eagles D is that the Saints are 4th in the league in sacks allowed. Drew Brees has only been sacked 23 times this year. With Sheppard out, this give him the opportunity to hit for some big plays. Also, Sean Payton has done a great job of utilizing Reggie Bush all year. Reggie Bush is never going to be a 25 carries a game guy. However, Payton has him in all different types of formations looking for mismatches and getting the ball to him in space. Oh, did I mention Deuce McAllister had 1,000+ yards and 10 TD's this season?

The Saints defense isn't something necessarily worth something to write home about. They are ranked 11th overall, but only 23rd against the run. Mike McKenzie is probably the best known of the corp, but the great Scotts (Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita) are no slouches. Fred Thomas in his 11th year seems to be every opposing teams favorite target...and there is good reason for that. He has given up some big plays and some costly penalties. Looks for the Eagles to exploit him as many others have tried to do.

"The Man" has the Saints giving 5 and the total at 49. I am really torn on this game. It wouldn't surprise me if the Eagles won outright, therefore you better take the points. However, without Lito Sheppard, I could see the Eagles D having more holes in it than OJ's alibi. Ultimately, I would take the points, but nothing official. As for the total, I think it will be a shootout, but 28 - 20 doesn't get you over this total. However, I guarantee at least one if not both teams get to 30...therefore, take the over for 2 coins.

Peyton's Place...NOT!!!

2007-01-13T13:30:00.000-05:00

The Gurus come into this week down 19.8 stars on the year after losing on our only play last week. I had a very detailed, funny write-up on the Colts vs. Ravens game done with references to Colts leaving in the middle of the night, GuruJoe being absent from this board for a very long time, and I even threw in a Rosie vs. Donald reference. I had each part of the game broken down. Now time is getting short I can't go through it all. So here is an abbreviated write-up:

Colts @ Ravens

M & T Bank Stadium is not the same as the dome you are used to playing in Peyton. I think there are basically two keys to this game: 1) How does Peyton Manning handle the pressure from the Ravens D and 2) can the Colts rush D step up again?

1) The Ravens D is first overall and points allowed. They are second in sacks. Last year my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers showed how Peyton Manning doesn't like much pressure, especially up the middle. Ravens will exploit this.

2) While Jamal Lewis is clearly in the twilight of his career, he still had 1,000+ yards and 9 TD's. Baltimore ranked 11th in the league in rush attempts despite having the 25th best rushing offense. Brian Billick ran the ball and played defense to win his games. Do you think he is going to abandon that game plan this week? The Colts rush D must step up and force the game into Steve McNair's hands. Jamal Lewis cannot gain 3 yards a carry and keep Peyton and company on the sidelines.

"The Man" has the Ravens giving 3.5 and the total at 42.5. I personally think that the Ravens dominate this game with defense and the running game. I would lay 3 sheckles on the Ravens today. I also think the total is way too high. Throw 3 more sheckles on the under.

The Champ!!!!!

2007-01-08T19:59:00.000-05:00

Lotion just on one of those rolls that have made him famous. Yet another winner yesterday. Lotion now 20-16 on the year and 12-8 during bowl season. Lotion has waited for this one.......this is one of his biggest plays of the entire bowl season. As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese!!!!

Ohio State Under 47.5

The public is pounding the over as this line has went from 46 to 47.5. Lotion kept waiting as he knew he could get an extra couple of points. Folks, both of these defenses are amazing. Dont let the SEC Championship and UM/OSU game full you. Both coaches are great in preparation and the defenses will be ahead of the offenses. Lotion doesnt have a scenario where the math gets this game out of the 30's. Lotion proving why he is the champ of the bowl season. Take the under and watch you wager cash by half time.

GMAC Bowl.......

2007-01-07T15:17:00.000-05:00

Lotion starting to roll down the stretch. Another winner on Western Michigan yesterday. Lotion now 11-8 bowling and 19-16 overall for the year. Lets get another one tonight! As Always, Stick with the Program.......it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Southern Miss -6

Ohio is one-dimensional. They love to hand it off to Kalvin McRae and let him run. Unfortunately, that will not be a formula for success against the Golden Eagles. Lotion like McRae but thinks the Eagles Damion Fletcher is even better. Lotion thinks there is a marginal difference on both sides of the ball in the favor of Southern Mississippi. But when you add them together, it becomes a little more significant. Throw that in with the special teams and coaching advantage and it would be a major upset if Ohio somehow pulled out a win. Lotion thinks this game could get out-of-hand and would not at all be surprised if Southern Miss wins by 3 touchdowns. Lay the small number and fly with the Golden Eagles.

Games today

2007-01-07T11:16:00.000-05:00

Nothing really hits me as a strong play today. I would trend to both underdogs and both overs. Nothing official on the plays today. Sit tight for next weeks games.

Playoffs are upon us...

2007-01-06T14:54:00.000-05:00

As you can imagine, the Gurus had a day of mourning yesterday for the resignation of Coach Cowher. Although I personally think he underachieved in his time in Pittsburgh, he was certainly an above average coach and a great guy. He was a great face for the organization...now we will have Whizzy for the next 15 years is my guess.

I will start with today's games and come back shortly with tomorrow's games. The gurus ended the regular season with a bang hitting all 6 of their rated plays and gaining 20 stars...that cuts the annual deficit to a mere 14.3 stars...finally smaller than that of the U. S. I told you that this is the Gurus time of year and I meant it.

Chiefs @ Colts

Colts #32 rush defense meet Larry Johnson. He will certainly be seeing a lot of you in this game. Trent Green has been very average since his return, but he won the game last week that he needed for his team to make the playoffs. The Chiefs games have actually gone under six of their last 8 games and this is mostly due to their run first philosophy. The Colts on the other hand have all the fire power in the world. Peyton Manning is the best QB to not have won a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, I think that defense is going to prevent him from doing so again this year.

"The Man" has the Colts giving 7 and the the total at 50. Part of me thinks the Colts Rush D will step up and limit LJ to less than 200 yards and their offense will fire on all cylinders. Part of me thinks the Chiefs play keep away with LJ and they keep it close. Based on the rush D, I will take the points and the Chiefs, although I think Indi wins a close one. I love the over here...50...this game will reach 70...maybe by halftime. Take the over for 5 stars...this is only your third 5 star selection of the year.

Cowboys @ Seahawks

The Seahawks had to go to the scrap heap this past week to find someone who can play in the secondary. Is it possible that this could put a smile on Terrrel Owens' face or will the rain dampen his spirits? Tony Romo hasn't played as well down the stretch, but still played adequate. The Dallas pass defense is what scares me the most. The Seahawks do two things well on D, rush the passer...oh wait, that is only one thing. They can't stop the run and don't fare real well against the pass either and now the secondary is beat up.

"The Man" has the Seahawks giving 2 and the total at 47. I have to go with the Cowboys against the beat up Seahawks, therefore take the points. The over is very intriguing, but I would ultimately stay away due to the weather forecast of 80% showers. If the pre-game doesn't show that to be the case, check back for a possible play.

Lotion Going International!!!

2007-01-06T11:50:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year ladies! Lotion is 18-16 for the year and 10-8 during the bowls. Lotion looking to "win-out". As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese!!!!

Western Michigan +7.5

Lotion likes this Cincy team. But their offense is pathetic. Western Michigan doesnt have much to toot their horn on when it comes to offense as well. This should be a low scoring game as both defenses can lock it up. Lotion did look long and hard at the under but decided to pass on it. Lotion likes the West Mich run game more than anything UC can do on offense. Should be a very tight, low scoring game. Take the generous amount of points.

Trying Again.....

2007-01-02T20:54:00.000-05:00

Cant seem to get this to publish boys. Hopefully this gets through. I am not seeing show on the blog. If so, not a stellar day for Lotion going 3-4 and dropping the season total to 17-16 and 9-8 during the bowls. Lotion ready to storm through the remaining games and finish the year on a positive note. As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Louisville Under 53

Wake has one of the best defenses in America. The Cards have the offense.....but what often gets overlooked is their defense. The public riding the over train as it has been rolling the last few days. Lotion just thinks the under is due here. Wake shut out FSU 33-0 in Talahassee. FSU's offesne is not Louisville.....but they are not the 2006 Boise St Broncos either. Lotion loving the under. Nice parlay would be Wake and their nasty defense getting the 10 and Under. But the official play is Under. Let's get it going!!!!!

Added Play for New Year's Day!!!

2007-01-01T15:17:00.000-05:00

Lotion giving you an extra pick tonight....this is the play given to the paying customers. Looking to go 5-2 today on this forum and prove why Lotion is best in the business. As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Boise State Under 50.

New Year's Day Spectacular!!!

2007-01-01T10:24:00.000-05:00

For Lotion's paying customers and those that have followed the Program through the years know that Lotion gives the New Year's Day full card every year. Consider it a Holiday gift from Lotion. This year will be no exception. Lotion 14-12 overall for the year and 6-4 during bowl season. Lotion not happy with the record but has an opportunity to make it respectable with a BIG day today. Lotion loving this card. Consider this your "cheat sheet" for today. Happy New Year and as always, Stick with the Program........it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Penn State Over 41 (If Arkansas can score 33 on Rocky Top, even the pathetic PSU offense will score some points).

Nebraska +2 (The resurgence continues today in the heart of Texas. Auburn doesnt have the firepower to keep up).

Wisconsin +2.5 (This line is rising which means everyone is on the Hogs. SEC looked great in bowl games so far and Big 10 looked crappy. Time for the top tier of the Big 10. SEC is deeper better conference but Big 10 top 3 are as good as anyone in America).

Georgia Tech +10.5 (Amazing.....the worst QB in America - Ball is out.....and the line moves 4 points......THE WRONG WAY. Vegas getting a gift today. Ramblin Wreck defense too much for Mounties. Take the points.....you may not need them).

Michigan -1.5 (Maize and Blue to prove they are the second best team in America today. Too much defense for the Trojans and the Henne/Hart combination shows the world why Michigan will win it all next year).

Boise State +7 (Oklahoma is the lucky one to be in this game......not Boise. THe Broncos are jacked and have the offense and defense to win this one outright. This is the year that the small conference team wins a BCS game).

Week 17: the late edition

2006-12-31T01:06:00.000-05:00

Bills @ Baltimore

The Bills finally lost one against the spread...and of course it is the only week all year I chose them. I can't believe no one is blasting me for my Just Punt (JP) lines considering he is actually not playing that bad. However, the Ravens D will never be confused with that of the Titans, Dolphins, Jets, Texans or Packers...just some of the teams he has played. Baltimore needs this win to ensure a bye and could slide into home field throughout if the Chargers somehow manage to lose to the upstart Cardinals.

"The Man" has Baltimore giving 9 and the total at 35. I don't see the average Buffalo D being able to contain Air McNair and the revitalized Ravens attack. Again, the big spreads are going to kill me...take the Ravens and give the points...4 stars. I also am very tempted by the over, but would ultimately stay away due to the JP factor.

Dolphins @ Colts

Cleo Lemon is making his first NFL start at the Colts house on Sunday. Luckily the game plan will be for him to hand the ball to Ronnie Brown...and then do it again and again and again and again and...I think you catch my drift. The Cotls meanwhile will be playing at the same time as the Ravens, so they will not know if they have a chance to get to a bye week other than scoreboard watching throughout the game. Someone please explain how the Colts managed to lose to the Texans in such a critical game?

"The Man" has the Colts giving 9 and the total at only 42. I really like the Colts as they have something to play for and the other team is getting their first start from their QB. I am actually going to say that Colts win, but will take the points due to the dreaded back door cover. The over is what I am jumping on right now. I know the Dolphins have been playing D, but the Colts are averaging over 30 points per game at home this season...no reason to believe this ends this week. Take the over for 3 stars.

Falcons @ Eagles

The Dirty Birds travel to Philly looking for some love. However, all the love left last night when the Giants won. The Eagles will know by their kickoff if they need to win or not, depending on teh results of the Cowboys game. I am assuming the Cowboys will win and the Eagles will need to win. The Falcons will come into this game without heart and nothing to play for.

"The Man" has the Eagles giving 8.5 and the total at 43. I really like the Eagles in this game regardless of what it means, but won't make it an official play. I like the over if the Eagles need to win and the under if they don't...so check the Dallas score. Ultimately, this is a no touch game.

SF @ Broncos

The 49ers had been playing tough until last week when they lost to the Cardinals last week with their playoff lives on the line. The Broncos may need to win depending on the result of the Chiefs game. Another one we will have to wait for certain.

"The Man" has the Broncos giving 10 and the total at 39. The Broncos will win this game, but I think they only cover if they need it. So, check the Chiefs score before making a final decision here. Ultimately, I would go under the total due to weather and the Broncos stifling D.

Cardinals @ Chargers

The Chargers are going to need a win to secure home field throughout the playoffs. The Cardinals have nothing to play for including a lame duck coach and Dennis Green is most likely not going to be back.

"The Man" has the Chargers giving 14 and the total at 44. I think the Cardinals should be able to cover the large spread, but the Chargers win. I would trend to under the total, but wouldn't play either the line or the total.

Packers @ Bears

Packers need more than a mircale to make the playoffs...I am not sure what you would call it...I think I have a better chance of getting the "Girls Next Door" to move in with me than they have of making the playoffs. The Bears are playing for nothing. I will take Favre's heart over a meaningless game for the Bears.

"The Man" has the Bears giving 3 and the total at 37.5. I would trend to the Packers and Favre and the over, but no official play on this game.

Here's hoping week 17 is sweeter than 16...the early edition

2006-12-30T23:19:00.000-05:00

The Gurus had their worst week of the year in week 16. We couldn't have hit a bull's ass with a handful of rice it was so bad. Our annual total stands at a negative 34.3 stars...completely wiping away the 31.6 stars of yesteryear. However, we will never throw in the towel...this is the only thing that gets me away from my wife and job. It is time I call out the noticably absent GuruJoe. He used to travel for work and this was his leisure activity, but now that he is home his wife can't keep her hands off him.......NOT!!! Therefore, I am blaming GuruJoe for our failing this year as he hasn't been seen in weeks on these boards. Lotion and GuruBob keep plugging away trying to fill the void. Lotion keeps filling your wallets while I keep making shit in the infamous words of Borat. Well, on to week 17:

Steelers @ Bengals

My Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers travel to the much hated Bengals in hopes of reaching 8 - 8...and keeping the Bengals from making the post season. Is this Cowher's last game? Do the Steelers have any pride left? Will the Bengals stay out of jail long enough to play the game? Bengals have a chance to slip in and have everything to play for. This goes to my philosophy on tonight's game...desperation vs. pride...desperation usually wins.

"The Man" has the Bengals giving 6 and the total at 44. I wouldn't touch the line, but would trend to the Steelers, although I think the Bengals win the game outright. I really liked the over until I saw the weather forecast of 80% chance of rain...trend over regardless, but check back for a potential play during pre-game.

Lions @ Cowboys

The Cowardly Lions take their show on the road for the final week to the heart of Texas to face the Cowboys...BREAKING NEWS: The Lions have been eliminated from the playoffs. They have managed to keep some of their recent games close...but they still stink. The Cowboys meanwhile have been the most underachieving playoff bound team of late. They got hammered by the Eagles last week...I guess they are sick of playing on holidays and decided to boycott that game on Christmas day. Dallas needs to win and then hope Atlanta can knock off the Eagles and still clinch the division.

"The Man" has Dallas giving 13 and the total at 44. I love Dallas in this game, but will ultimately learn my lesson and stay away from the large number. The over is really intriguing to me as Detroit still has a couple of weapons that might be able to score...Let's go over this total with a 3 star selection. Dallas has given up an average of 28 points the last 4 weeks and the Lions can't stop anyone.

Browns @ Texans

The Browns lost by 15 to the Bucs...Texans beat the Colts, who were fighting for a bye. Enough said on this pillow fight...oh yeah, Ken Dorsey is starting for the Browns...now enough is said about this one.

"The Man" has the Texans giving 5 and the total at 37.5. I wouldn't touch this game with all the money in Jenna Jamison's G-string, but would lean towards the Texans and the under...I guess.

Jaguars @ Chiefs

Both teams need a miracle to make the playoffs, but you never know in the way the league has gone thus far this year. Jaguars only give up 86 yards per game on the ground...meanwhile the Chiefs rush for 160 at home per game. Something has to give. Trent Green has been very average since his return, but don't look for Huard to get on the field even if Green continues to struggle.

"The Man" has the Chiefs giving 2 and the total at 37. I would stay away from the game, but would ultimately lean towards the Chiefs at home and the under. Arrowhead is a tough place to play and the Jaguars struggle on the road. Both teams will want to run and run often, so that should keep the scoring and possessions down.

Rams @ Vikings

The Rams take the greatest show on turf on the road for the final game of the year to Minnesota. Rams come in winning 2 in a row, while the Vikings have lost 2 in a row. Jackson appears to be starting again for the Vikings. Marc Bulger still has no one to block for him.

"The Man" has the Rams giving 2.5 and the total at 43. Stay away from this pillow fight, but I would trend toward the Vikings at home and the under. I am switching this to the Rams due to secondary changes for the Vikings.

Panthers @ Saints

Jake Dlehomme appears ready to come back in this meaningless game to the Saints. The Panthers weren't faring to well with Jake in there before he got injured...and they fared even worse without him. The Saints meanwhile have nothing to play for. The question is how long with Payton let his starters play. Other than their defeat to the Redskins a couple of weeks ago, the Saints have been awesome. I can't see Payton risking injury beyond the first half in this one.

"The Man" started out giving the Panthers 3 and it has now gone the other way when Jake Delhomme was announced as the starter. The Panthers have been eliminated by the Giants victory Saturday night. I am going to take the points in this one as the Panthers are coming in on a down note. I will also go over the 38...but no official plays. Late added play here...take the Panthers -2 for 4 stars as the Saints are going to be sitting most starters.

Raiders @ Jets

The Raiders suck in case you didn't know. Chad Pennington meanwhile continues to play with heart and leading the J.E.T.S Jets Jets Jets. The Jets need this win to make the playoffs. The Raiders have nothing to play for and are full of self-helping players.

"The Man" has the Jets giving 11.5 and the total at 34. I think the Jets win, but the Oakland D and bad weather should be enough for them to cover. I really like the under if the weather is as bad as advertised. I can't see either team reaching the 20's in this one. Check back tomorrow around game to see if this is an added play once we see the weather. Staying away today.

Seahawks @ Buccaneers

The Seahwaks need to right the ship heading into the playoffs. The Buccaneers have nothing to play for. I think the Seahawks will be playing to end the losing streak.

"The Man" has the Buccaneers favored by 3 and the total at 37. I have to take the points and assume Mike Holgren keeps his guys playing until the game is wrapped up. Rattay looked good last week, but remember that was the Browns. Seahawks should win outright based on talent, therfore take the points as well. I would ultimately go over the total, but I think it is dead on. Stay away...unlike GuruJoe's wife lately. I am also adding the Seahawks +3 as a 3 star play. Holmgren has stated that the starters are going to play the whole game as expectecd.

Patriots @ Titans

The Patriots have been an achilles heel for me all year. The Patriots need this win less than the Titans as they are most likely locked into the 4th seed unless something really weird like the Ravens and Colts both lose. The Titans have a miracle shot left in them to make the playoffs. They have been playing pretty good ball lately as Vince continues to get more comfortable every week.

"The Man" has the Titans favored by 3 and the total at 41.5. I am really torn on this game because I wonder what Sweatshirt Bill will do. I assume he will play as if it is possible he could get the #2 seed. Therefore, I gotta take the points. The over is very intriguing to me, but would ultimately let this game go as there are plenty of other nuggets on the board.

G-strings or G-men

2006-12-30T17:59:00.000-05:00

In just a little less than 2 hours from now, we are going to find out the true identity of the New York Football Giants. Blow number one may have taken place as Jeremy Shockey did not make the trip to the nation's capital for tonight's game...maybe he has G-strings and getting rid of Tom on his mind. The Giants have lost 6 of their last seven, yet still control their own destiny for the playoffs...thus showing the "parity" of the NFL. Tom Coughlin's job is on the line tonight and that was made abundantly clear when he demoted his O-coordinator and put the play calling duties in the hands of Kevin Gilbride...the QB coach who has done such a great job with Manning this year...NOT!!!!

On the other sideline, Jason Campbell has been getting better every week. He is only 2 - 4 as a starter, but they have essentially been in every game. What more would the Redskins like for the New Year than to keep the hated Giants out of the playoffs. Ladell Betts has been doing more than adequate in replacing Clinton Portis thus far this year. To say this D has been mediocre would be insulting all mediocre D's across the league.

So what is a Guru to do? The ESPN experts are split on this game. All the CBS experts save one are taking the Redskins. The teams match up fairly equal on paper. Average offenses and average defenses. If Jeremy Shockey would take his G-string off and play, then I would definitely look for the Giants to expose the bad passing D of the Redskins, but he is not playing. Plax will be flailing his arms and pouting at the fist over throw.

"The Man" has the Giants giving 2 and the total at 43. Desperation should overcome pride in this type of a game, but you never know, which means I think the Giants win. Therefore, I am going against the experts and taking the Giants for 3 stars. As for the total, the tie breaker in the NFC could come down to margin of victory, so there will be no letting up. I would ultimately think that two run first teams should go under the total, but in this case the Giants will need to push the offense in this game. Therefore, I am going over the total as well, but no official play.

Dont' Mess With Texas!!!!

2006-12-30T14:49:00.000-05:00

Lotion dropped the under earlier this afternoon. Lotion's favorite of the day is later this afternoon on the Horns. This one could get REAL ugly. Hook em Horns!!! Stop back later for potential play on the night game.

Texas -9

Saturday, Saturday Night's Alright!!!

2006-12-30T10:58:00.000-05:00

Lotion split yesterday. Record at 6-2 during the bowls and 14-10 overall for the year. Lotion really loving the card from here on out. Expect Lotion to continue the dominance. Check back later this afternoon as Lotion is waiting on some information for the later games. There may or may not be a play. As Always, Stick with the Program, it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Navy Under 47.5

BC just doesnt let anyone run on them. Navy is not just anyone. Granted, the Eagles have had a month to prepare for the Bone, but are they really motivated to be here? Their coach is gone. Their focus is gone. Without the coaching turmoil, the Eagles could have sold out on the run and really put the hammer to the Middies forcing them into passing siutations. However, Lotion looks for Navy to have surprising success running the football and eating the clock. Each team will likely only get 4 possessions per half. That is 16 total possessions per game. They would have to average over 3 points a possession. Not going to happen with these defenses. Expect this game to stay in the 30's and well below the posted total of 47.5.

Need to Recover from Happy Hour

2006-12-29T18:42:00.000-05:00

Looks like Lotion had a little too much for Happy Hour. The Under just about done at half time. Lotion to get it back tonight. Going against HUGE public opinion on this one. Maryland started out as 4 point favorites and now are 1 point underdogs. Largest point swing so far in bowl season. Vegas and Lotion going to make a boatload tonight. Maryland is the better team on both sides of the ball. Terp fans outnumber Boiler Upers by 3-1. Like a home game for the Terps. As a good friend of mine would say, Terps going to make the Boilers "Turtle Soup" tonight.

Maryland +1

Friday Happy Hour!

2006-12-29T15:55:00.000-05:00

Lotion hotter than a new Paris Hilton video. 5-1 in the bowls, 13-9 overall for the year......folks, it doesnt get much better than what you are getting here. Stop back around 7:30 EST for tonights game as Lotion loving that one! Anyway, back to the Liberty Bowl and you Friday Happy Hour play. As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Houston Under 56

Lotion likes the experience of this Cougar squad and thinks Kolb has been one of the best QB's in America over the last 2 years. Historically, spread offenses have done terrible during bowl season. This year is different, the spreads are not only covering, but winning games outright. That makes Houston an attractive play here getting 5 points. However, do not underestimate the Ol Bawl Coach with a month to prepare. Love him or hate him, he is one of the best coaches in terms of preparation ever to roam the sidelines at any level. SC will be ready for ANYTHING that Houston throws at them. Lotion thinks the SC defense will rise to the challenge today and keep the high-powered 32 ppg offense in check. Also, look for Spurrier to control the ball and the clock. Lotion thinks this game gets to the 40's and stays below the posted total of 56. Lotion looking to get back above 60% on the year and above 85% during bowl season.

Lotion disconnecting bookie phones all across America!!!

2006-12-28T16:24:00.000-05:00

Lotion tried to call his man today and got a recording, "This number is no longer in service". Lotion putting bookies across America out-of-business. Lotion to continue the bowl dominance tonight. Lotion standing at 12-9 on the season and 4-1 with bowl selections. Three games today and one easy winner. As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese!

Lotion looking at the Texas Bowl tonight. The game will be closer to KState and expect them to bring the fans and noise tonight. The Wildcats are jacked to be here and love the role of underdog......just ask Texas. Both of these teams are relatively young and will be players next year. KState will stack the line tonight to stop the run and force Mike Teel to put the ball in the air. Unfortunately for KState, Teel is capable of doing it. Rutgers averages 29 ppg and Lotion fully expects them to hit that number tonight. With RB's Ray Rice and Brian Leonard to go along with future NFL'er TE Clark Harris, this offense will score points. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats have played tremendous offensive football down the stretch after starting the season not knowing what an endzone looks like.....that is, until they inserted super frosh QB Josh Freeman. Lotion loves this kid. He can make plays with his feet and arm and is fun to watch. It is worth tuning in just to see this kid play. He will be something special before he graduates. Dont be surprised if he puts a Heisman to his collection. Tonight could be his coming out party on the NFL network.

Last night, the public bet the UCLA/FSU over/under down from 41 to 36.5 at kickoff. Lotion was one of the few handicappers on the over. Again, Lotion is the best in the business and has shown that over the long haul. Lotion fully expects another shoot-out tonight. This game has the potential to get into the 60's and will easily go over the 44. Lotion looking to get to 13-9 on the season and 5-1 in the bowls. Stay tuned as the weekend will be full of winners.

Rutgers Over 44

Lotion is on Fire!!!!

2006-12-27T17:11:00.000-05:00

Lotion is rolling this bowl season. Swept the board on Saturday going 2-0 and pushing the record to 11-9. Expect the winning to continue following the hottest bowl capper in America. Enormous amount of line value tonight. Both of these teams give up close to 20 ppg and score 25 ppg. Both teams off of impressive defensive efforts vs Miami and USC to close the season. Unfortunately, that momentum is gone with a month off. Vegas giving too much respect to the last games played by UCLA and FSU. No denying, these 2 teams can lock it up. But neither defense is as good as advertised. The weather will be a factor and that could also play into the reason the line is dropping faster than Britney Spears pants. Lotion thinks the weather will lead to a special teams miscue and give someone a short field to offset the the effect on the offenses. Lotion looking for a game in the 40's and over the total of 38.5. As Always, Stick with the Program.....it is the ONLY way to make cheese!!!!!

UCLA Over 38.5

Sweet 16 + the Holiday Season = A Happy New Year

2006-12-23T20:30:00.000-05:00

Gurus hit a couple of big ones last week and split the rest of the weekend for the most part. Our total ended up at negative 21.1 for the year. It is too late to give you the Chiefs as a lock, but it was posted to paying customers. We shall see if it hits. In case anyone doubts the gurus dedication to these pages, I am sitting in a bedroom at my sister-in-laws acting sick to write this up and watch the Chiefs game online as they don't get the NFL network. Let's get right into week 16.

Titans @ Bills

One these teams playoff lives will be killed tomorrow and the other will still be on the outside looking in and hoping Santa can deliver an early present. The Titans are thinking they got their early Christmas present last April when Vince Young slipped to them. He has been a leader and playing solid. Is it possible that Just Punt (JP) doesn't suck as bad as these gurus think? The Titans come into this one with 5 wins ATS in a row and the Bills are at least 7...so something has to give.

Bills are giving 4.5 and the total at 36.5. I would ultimately stay away from both, but like the Bills and over.

Saints @ Giants

The Saints travel to the Meadowlands after a disappointing showing last week against the Redskins. Does this mean this week is the back to surprising people? Meanwhile, Michael Strahan looks to see some action this week after practicing several days this week. He is the emotional and physical leader on this defense.

The Giants are giving the home field 3 and the total is at 47.5. I am really torn here as both teams have been enigmas this year. The Saints kill the Cowboys, then lose to the Redskins. Ultimately, I am going to say that Strahan makes a play in his return and gets the Giants the victory and cover. I would ultimate also go with under the total...the Meadowlands are never easy to play in and the winds should be blowing despite the unseasonably warm weather. No official play here.

Panthers @ Falcons

Weinke or Vick? I think I will take Michael Vick in this one. The Panthers are reeling and are one of the biggest disappointments in the league this year as many experts had them going all the way, but you can't predict losing 3 OL and a starting MLB...not to mention other injuries throughout the year.

The Falcons are favored by 6 and the total at 40.5. I would trend with the Falcons and under. These two teams should be able to contain each other offenses...however, I ultimately wouldn't touch.

Redskins @ Rams

The Rams have been terrible since Orlando Pace got hurt and they weren't so good before his injury...and no I don't count the Rams victory at Raiders as a "big win". The Redskins have been playing some good defense and Jason Campbell continues to get better.

The Rams are giving 2 and the total at 43.5. I would trend to the Redskins to pull the mild upset and under the total, but no official play here.

Colts @ Texans

Colts travel to Houston after having dominated the Bungles in virtually every aspect of the game last week. The offense is on fire and the defense actually played decent. It is amazing what a 10 point lead does to a D. The Texans meanwhile got embarassed as this guru predicted last week in New England.

The Colts are giving 9 on the road and the total is at 46.5. The gurus have been killed by the big road favorites. I just can't see the Texans keeping this close, especially since the Colts are still playing for a bye. Take the Colts and go over the total. Colts are a 3 star play.

Ravens @ Steelers

The Ravens embarassed my Super Bowl Defending Pittsburgh Steelers about 4 weeks ago. The Steelers have gone a a run winning 3 in a row and demolishing each opponent. Should I note that the combined record of those three teams they beat is 13 - 29. However, this is how you build confidence. I am most concerned with a rookie right tackle starting for the Steelers after Ben got sacked 9 times last meeting.

The Steelers are giving 3.5 and the total at 36.5. I can't see the Steelers giving 3.5 to a team of this caliber, but how often do you see the next game flip completely. Therefore, I am going to take the Steelers and give the points and go over the total. No official play, but just trying to make sense of something that makes no sense.

TB @ Browns

The Browns are still playing Derek Anderson. Tim Rattay gets his first start of the year for the Bucs. These are two horrible teams playing for nothing. Cadillac will stay in the garage for this one.

Browns are giving 3 points and the total at 36.5. I think you all know by now that I would never play this game, but I would trend to the Bucs and the over.

Bears @ Lions

This is a typical end of the year trap game. The Bears have nothing to play for as they have clinched home field throughout the NFC playoffs. The Lions stink. They are terrible and are in the Brady Quinn running. The Bears will be happy to get out healthy. The Lions wish they didn't have to play any more this year.

The Bears are giving 5.5 and the total is at 42. I would go under the total, but nothing official. I am going to take the underdogs in this one as the Bears are missing their interior DL and have no reason to play. No official plays here.

Pats @ Jags

The Jaguars are playing host to the Patriots. The Patriots are on the outside looking in for a bye, but still have potential. The Jaguars need to start winning to make the playoffs. The 3 defensive TD's obviously cost them the game against the Titans. The Jaguars are 6 - 1 at home comapared to 2 - 5 on the road. The Patriots meanwhile have a very solid 5 - 1 record on the road. Which Patriots team will show up?

The Jaguars are giving 3 and the total is 37. I hate this game, but would ultimately go with the Jaguars at home based on their tough physical D. I would also trend to go over the total, but would stay away.

Cardinals @ 49ers

The Cardinals got their proverbial butts handed to them last week. The 49ers meanwhile have a shot at the NFC West title with two Seattle losses, which is possible based on their schedule. Matt Leinart is starting to play better, but this is still the Cardinals.

The 49ers are giving 4 and the total at 45. Is it posisble that I am making a rated play on the 49ers and small hands Smith? Yes it is...this team has shown they have some fight left in them adn the home crowd should be able to keep them up. I would trend to go under the total, but would stay away. 49ers are a 2 star play.

Bengals @ Broncos

Bungles hit the road on short rest to face the Broncos. Jay Cutler had a good game against the Cardinals last week. If there is one place you would not want to travel to on short rest, I am guessing Denver would be at the top of that list. I am wondering if the Bengals have the heart and toughness to stay in this game.

The Broncos are giving 3 and the total at 44. I would go under the total and take the mules, but no official play as I want to see Jay get it done against a real team before I start making them official selections.

SD @ Seattle

The Seahawks have always been a much better home team than road team. They are fighting for their playoff lives. They just got embarassed at home by the 49ers. Is it possible these guys just aren't that good? Maybe Steve Hutchinson is that important. The Chargers meanwhile keep plugging away and dominating everyone in their path.

The Chargers are giving 4.5 and the total is at 46. I love the Chargers in this game as they have been solid and the Hawks struggle to stop the run...did I mention LT yet. I also like the over in this one. I am going with my gut as I did last week and split. I am taking the Chargers for 2 stars and the over for 3 stars. If you haver the cajones that I do, then you would make it a parlay for 2 as well. BTW, this is the first official parlay call this year.

Eagles @ Cowboys

Jeff Garcia is playing great with only one INT since taking over for McNabb. Romo has come back to earth for the Cowboys, but still getting it done. The Eagles have their playoff destiny in their own hands. The Cowboys are playing for a bye. This should be a great Christmas gift to all of us football fans.

The Cowboys are giving 7 and the total at 46.5. I would trend to go with the Cowboys, but would stay away. I love the over here. Take the over for 4 stars.

NYJ @ Fins

I can't figure out either of these teams, so there won't be any official plays. I like the Fins to play spoiler to their hated Jet rivals. But I hoenstly don't have a good pulse on this game. The total is 37. I would normally say go under, but something tells me this one ends up being one of those wild games these teams play. Take the over, but no official play.

Saturday Bowl Bonanza

2006-12-23T12:48:00.000-05:00

Tough break for Lotion last night. He called the Troy win, against 75% of the public, but the late TD pushed the game over the total. Time to get back on track today. Lotion sitting at 9-9 on the year. Lotion has 2 picks for you Saturday.

South Florida -5.5
San Jose State +3.5

No time for write-ups today. Looking for a 2-0 sweep today. Good luck.

Lotion Here to Spread Holiday Cheer!

2006-12-22T15:14:00.000-05:00

Lotion is back in time for the Holidays and looking to put some cheese in your stockings. Lotion will be playing several bowl games so be sure to check out Gridiron Gurus daily so you don't miss any of the selections. It truly is the most wonderful time of the year for Lotion. Lotion has been the best bowl prognosticator in the business the last 4 years. Expect much of the same this year. Lotion apologizes for not getting the TCU pick up on these pages. The paying customers were the only ones who reaped the benefits of that selection. No fears.....Lotion will make you plenty of coin in the coming 2 weeks. Sit tight, relax, follow Lotion and your hearts and pockets will be filled with joy! As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make $$$:

Rice Under 55

Lotion started out the year on fire winning 8 of his first 10 games. Lotion then lost 6 straight before winning his last selection on these pages. The paying customers are faring much better but we still are winning here at 9-8. Time to storm through the Holiday season and bowl week. Troy will try to control the clock tonight with their ground game (RB Kenny Cattouse) and their attack defense. They will need to in order to keep the ball away from Quinton Smith and sure fire NFL WR Jarrett Dilliard. Lotion likes the Trojans coach Larry Blakeney. He is a solid scheme guy and will have a creative defensive game plan in place with this much time to prepare. The world loves Rice tonight especially after their remarkable season. Lotion would not be surprised if Troy pulled the upset. If they do, the score will need to be in the 40's. Lotion likes the fact that the line continues to trend up.........gonna be a lot of people on the wrong side tonight. Lotion looking to get to 10-8 and start off bowl week with a bang. Take the Under tonight.

The week before sweetness...

2006-12-17T01:17:00.000-05:00

I know most people think about sweet 16, but the gurus are hoping to love week 15. You got one early nugget with the Cowboys covering the 3.5 for 3 stars...that brings our total this year to negative 19.1 stars for the year. Could the gurus actually be primed for post season play? We will find out shortly. Unfortunately I can't do the normal write-up and will tell you the lines and trends and make the selections.

Jets @ Vikes

J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets hit the road to the domed field in Minnesota to face the Vikings. The Vikings will put their 4th ranked D on the field against the 26th ranked O of the Jets hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive. "Old Man" Johnson has been playing very average at best.

"The Man" has the Vikings giving 3 and the total at 41. The Vikings are very intriguing to me as I am believing in their D. I would trend to the under, but wouldn't touch the total. The Vikes are certainly in play.

Browns @ Ravens

29th offense meet the #1 defense...enough said.

"The Man" has Baltimore giving 11.5 and the total at 34.5. I love Baltimore in this game. Baltimore is doing just enough on offense to keep this one on track. The Browns meanwhile are likely to start Andersen again and have lost their leading tackler in Jackson. The Browns are just to beat up to compete in this one. Ravens win easily...in fact, I would stay away from the line, but would trend over on some late points on either team to cover the total. Take the Ravens for 2 Stars.

Texans @ Pats

I hate this game. Pats should blow this team out...however, they are beat up on both sides of the ball and are reeling from the loss in Miami. Texans meanwhile might be the worst team in the NFL again...anyone else think they might want Reggie Bush now?

"The Man" has the Patriots giving 11 and the total at 37 . I wouldn't touch either, but would tend to go with the Pats on the rebound and the over. When was the last time the Pats lost four in a row? Ok, I convinced myself to take the Pats for 2 Stars.

Fins @ Bills

I don't keep it a secret that I think J. P. (Just Punt) sucks. The Dolphins are on roll winning 5 of their last 6...and these weren't your typical patsy wins. The Bills meanwhile have won 3 of their last 4. I guess both teams are playing for the best team after the mid-season report card award.

"The Man" has the Bills giving 1 and the total at 34.5. The fish really intrigue me here based on their recent defensive play...but the total doesn't interest me at all. I would tend to go over the small total. Fins are a 3 star play.

Steelers @ Carolina

My beloved Steelers are road favorites at Carolina by 3...I guess everyone else has as much respect for their running game and Weinke as I do. I love the Steelers in this game. Our #6 rushing defense will make Weinke and company one dimetional...and that will spell trouble. The total is at 38. I wouldn't touch this, but I would definitely trend to the over. Steelers are a 4 star play.

Redskins @ Saints

The #1 offensive team comes to face a below average Redskins defense...do I need to say more?

"The Man" has the Saints giving 9 and the total at 46.5. The Redskins have not scored more than 20 points since Jason Campbell took over. The Saints meanwhile continue to average over 27 points/game...I would ultimately stay away, however I would trend to the Saints and under the total.

Jaguars @ Titans

Jaguars come to Tennessee hoping to maintain their strangehold on the AFC wild card race. The Titans have won 4 straight against the likes of Eagles, Giants, Colts, and Texans...now that is impressive. The Jaguars meanwhile are a mere 2-4 on the road this year...so what is a man to do?

"The Man" has the Jaguars giving 3 and the total at 41. I would ultimately stay away from the enigmatic Jaguars, but would certainly tend to go with them...I also will say under the total, but no official play.

TB @ Bears

TB is really bad...Bears are pretty good when Rex Grossman decides he wants to play...

"The Man" has the Bears giving 13.5 and the total at 34. I would definitely go with the Bears as I don't expect the Buccaneers to score much. The only question on the total is will the Buccaneers score. I think not. I would go with the Bears and the under, but no official play on this game.

Eagles @ Giants

Jeff Garcia brings the crew to the Meadowlands for a huge match-up.

"The Man" has the Giants giving 5 and the total at 43.5. I love the Giants in this game as I have not seen the Eagles D able to stop any RB...the only difference between the Giants and some of the past teams they have faced is the ability to throw the ball as well. The 5 points won't be nearly enough and I would tend to go over this total based on the Eagles ability to score with Jeff Garcia. Giants 3 Stars.

Lions @ Packers

Does anyone really care other than Dan Marino who sees his TD passes record slipping away?

"The Man" has the Packers giving 5.5 and the total at 44. I wouldn't touch this game with Anna Nicole Smith's inheritance...however, I would trend with the Pakcers and under.

Broncos @ Cardinals

Does this game scare anyone else but me? Jay Cutler has been very average. Matt Leinart is starting to gain poise. Can the Broncos possibly lose this game?

"The Man" has the Broncos giving 3 and the total at 42.5. I would not touch the total, but would trend to the under with 2 rookie QB's. I would trend to the Cardinals to keep this game within a FG based on Jay Cutler's performance to date...Broncos should win, but it will be close.

Chiefs @ Chargers

Does the death of Lamar Hunt give the Chiefs enough motivation to cover the 8.5 or win the game? In the infamous words of Borat...NOT!!! I am sorry, but I think they might be fired up to start, but that emotion will run out and talent will overcome in the long run. I like the Chargers to cover the number. I also think the 46.5 is way too small...look for a couple of selections on this game. Take the Chargers for 2 Stars and over for 2 Stars.

Rams @ Raiders

Again, does anyone care? Raiders are giving 2.5 points, which is incredulous to me. I say take the Rams and give the points. I would also go voer the small 39 points. As you know by now, I would not touch a game of this lowly stature.

Bengals @ Colts

The Colts haven't lost three in a row since 2002...and no I am not talking about a space odyssey. The Bengals meanwhile are riding a high and are on a roll. They have a tough schedule, but control their destiny.

"The Man" has the Colts giving 3.5 and the total at 54.5. Go over young man go over...both teams are going to score and score often...but no official play. I would tend to go with the Bengals getting the points based on the Colts last few weeks, but I am going against that trend and taking the Colts to cover the small 3.5, but no official play.

Dirty Boys...

2006-12-15T15:39:00.000-05:00

I mean Birds play host to the Dallas Cowboys tomorrow night. Last night SF pulled the straight up win and the total pushed, but no plays from the gurus. This game, however, might be a little different. The high powered Dallas offense comes into this game off an embarassing loss at home to the Saints. The Boys got demolished in this game as Drew Brees threw the ball around like a seal at a circus...but with even more accuracy. Romo has been very average the last two weeks...could the league be catching up to him? The Dirty Birds meanwhile are on a two game winning streak, but the offense has still been very shaky...managing just 15 points/game in their last 6. Atlanta has the #1 rush offense, which is mostly because of the extra yards Michael Vick adds to a very good back field. However, Dunn and Norwood are both looking like they are not going to play against the #6 rush D of the Boys. So the question in this game is: which Michael Vick will show up?

The Boys are giving 3.5 on the road and the total is at 44.5. I really don't like the total, because I really wonder how Vick will do, but would trend to the over. The line on the other hand is very intriguing to me. I think the injuries to Dunn and Norwood will kill the Dirty Birds and put a serious hurting on their playoff chances. I say give the points and watch dem Boys open a can of whoop ass on the Dirty Birds. My official selection is Boys - 3.5 for 3 stars.

Week 15 Kicking Off Shortly

2006-12-14T17:05:00.000-05:00

The gurus gained 4.3 stars this past week bringing the season total to a dismal -22.1 stars for the year. It would be near impossible to completely climb out of this hole, but we are just looking to cut the deficit. Last week overall we were 10 - 6 against the spread and 8 - 8 on the totals.

SF @ Seattle

The Hawks have had their problems on the road in the past and this year is no different. They are 3-4 on the road and coming off a fairly embarassing loss to the Cards. For their sake, I hope there truly is no place like home. It would take a mircale from them to not win their division, but teams such as the Steelers, Fins, Bills and Titans would all be in first place right now in that division. This division is a joke. The 49ers meanwhile have lost the last two games by a combined 35 points...and one of these teams was the lowly Packers. The last time these teams met Frank Gore looked like Barry Sanders rushing for over 200 yards. The Hawks run defense hasn't gotten much better since then giving up over 110 yards per game.

The Hawks are favored by 10 and the total is at 40.5. The Hawks have averaged 26 points per game and gone over the total every game since Hasselbeck has returned from his knee injury. The 49ers however have been anemic at best of late only averaging only 15...on the flip side, the Hawks have given up over 20 points in 5 straight games. I was heavily leaning toward the over as it has dropped to 38 due to heavy winds in the Seattle area. As a result of the weather, I would ultimately stay away, but would still trend to over the total and the Hawks.

Week 14 - Running Away

2006-12-10T19:36:00.000-05:00

Some big games by some big backs and big performances by some key players under fire. Let's look at all the games as the gurus enjoyed their best week thus far with a positive 6.5 Stars thus far and hopefully more on the way.

Oakland visited the Bungles in week 14. They needed this win to continue to lead the wild card race and possibly stay within reach of the division. Rudi and Carson dominated the game, while the defense continued to play better...of course it was the Raiders...and they suck.

The Vikings kept their playoff hopes alive by beating the Cowardly Lions on the road. The irony of all ironies is that Artose Pinner killed them. He had three TD's and rushed for 125 yards against his ex-team. Why Detroit doesn't look to Josh McCown is beyond me? Kitna leads the league in turnovers with 26. As tight as the playoff races are, so is the race for Brady Quinn between Detroit and Oakland. It is going to come down to the wire.

The Ravens defense dominates again as Green kept making negative plays to kill drives...2 INT's, a lost fumble and 4 sacks. This D is good, but is the offense efficient enough to go all the way. I would love to see these guys face the Colts as it would be a classic match up. This loss puts the Ravens one step closer to the division title and the Chiefs one step closer to planning for the 2007 draft.

Dolphins continue their late season surge as their defense dominated Brady and the Pats. They sacked Brady 4 times and forced 3 fumbles. The Pats still hold a 2 game lead in their division with 3 to go, so their playoff spot is fairly secure.

The Pats were helped by the disaster tha was the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets game. I guess Mangenius looked more like a man child today. They had momentum early with a 10-7 lead, but quickly went down on a long pass to Evans and a INT returned for a TD. Two huge game changing plays and playoff dimming plays for the Jets. They still have a chance as they are only one game out with an easy schedule, but nothing is "easy" for the Jets.

The Dirty Birds were down at halftime 6-0 and the playoffs were looking dim. However, the running game and defense eventually prevailed. The Bucs meanwhile looked horrible again. Gruden even went so far as replacing Bruce Gradkowski with the ever exciting Tim Rattay. I bet they wish they could get in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes.

Philly needed to win to keep up with the other 6 - 6 teams. They were up big at halftime and managed to hold on. Jeff Garcia clearly looks very comfortable in the Andy Reid version of the west coast offense. I am not sure this defense will be able hold up for the next three weeks to make the push to the playoffs. Jason Campbell did some good things and got more comfortable as the game went progressed. Putting him in was a great move for the future. Once Clinton Portis comes back next year, you know Danny Boy will buy whatever other players he needs to make them a better team.

In one of the biggest games of the week, the G-men went to Carolina to visit Jake and the Panthers. However, Weinke ended up starting and both CB's were on the sidelines for the Panthers. Weinke still managed 400+ yards of passing as the Panthers just abandoned the running game. Plax had a big game and Eli showed why they traded for him as he led them to victory.

Breaking News: The FBI has issued an amber alert...the Colts rushing defense is missing. The Colts have come back to the pack and are now in line for the #2 seed. What do you think LT would do to this D? Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have certainly made themselves a formiddable team in the back field this year. Garrard didn't do anything spectacular, but he didn't need to.

Vince Young does it again. Comes from behind to tie the game and then wins it with a long run in OT. I am becoming a believer in this guy. Travis Henry has done a nice job of revitalizing his career as well. How much longer can the Texans go with David Carr? He has been terrible, but his line isn't much better and they have no running attack.

Luckily for them, the Hawks are in the worst division in football. I just don't understand how a Super Bowl contending team can lay such an egg at AZ. Matt leinart the last couple of weeks has been showing more confidence and showing why he should have been drafted higher.

GB @ SF: anyone care any more...the only thing of note here is Favre got closer to breaking Marino's all time TD record.

Do you think Mike Shanahan wishes he would have stuck with Jake? I don't think Jake would have made the difference, but Cutler doesn't look like a kid ready to play. He will eventually be fine, but he was not ready for the D he faced today. LT is amazing...the best overall player in football hands down.

Added play:

2006-12-10T19:26:00.000-05:00

The Gurus are on fire this week up 6.5 Stars for the week. As such, the Cowboys -7 are going to be added for 2 Stars. I just don't see the banged up Saints team being able to hang with the healthy Cowboys on the road. I said in my earlier write-up that I liked the Boys and it is now an official selection. I want to see the Saints beat, or even keep it close, against a team with a winning record. They have only played 2 teams with winning records and lot by an average of 14 against them.

Week 14 Official picks:

2006-12-09T22:55:00.000-05:00

G-men -1.5 over the Panthers - 4 stars
Philly/Skins under 40.5 - 2 stars
Indi/Jags under 44 - 2 stars
Seattle -3 over the Cards - 3 Stars
Bolts -7 over the Broncos - 2 stars

Take them to the bank this week folks. The gurus can't stay down forever.

Tis the Season:

2006-12-08T14:12:00.000-05:00

Week 14 started off with a bang as the homer nailed the Steeler game for 4 stars combined on the under and the line. My only regret is that I didn't post the parlay that I played and cut the deficit even more. The deficit now stands at a negative 26.4 stars on the year. What other prognosticators would willingly admit such futility? Only the gurus ride the ups and downs of the gambling world and take the grief that comes. Lotion has been a great addition this year to the Gurus and we appreciate him giving out a pick a week for free. I have been in touch with another great prognosticator who may be making some playoff selections on the board. Negotiations are heating up to say the least. Now on to week 14:

Oak @ Cinci

Oakland has killed this guru all year. He says take them and they lay eggs. He says lay the points and they show up. Now they are on the road at the equally enigmatic Bungles. Cinci appears to have found their offense and defense of late. They have given up just over a TD / game in their last three games and have a turnover ratio of +8 during these games. Could it be the youngsters are getting more comfortable with their roles? The Raiders meanwhile laid an egg last week at home against the lowly Texans. However, they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games. Their defense has been keeping them in games despite their lack of O.

I know the Bungles are going to be double digit favorites at home and I know I am going to pick them and I know they won't cover and I know I will get a new arsehole torn because I keep picking heavy favorites. So what is a guru to do? Let's check the final line. The total should be in the low 40's...and I wouldn't touch the total unless it is reall out of whack.

"The Man" has Cinci giving 11 and the total at 39. I woudln't touch this game, but would lean towards the Bungles and the over.

Vikes @ Detroit

The Mediocre meet the really bad. I want to see the pictures Matt Millen has of the Ford family. You thought the gurus were futile, what about the Lions? Will this team ever get back to respectability? I have serious doubts. The good news for the Vikes is that Brooks Bollinger hurt his shoulder...therefore, the QB controversy is gone for a week. I would hate to live in one of these cities and have to watch this game.

I am guessing the Vikes are small road favorites. Their D continues to play decently, but the O is horrible. I think the Lions find a way to win this game, but if you play it than you have more problems than Anna Nicole Smith. The total should be in the mid-30's, which I wouldn't touch either.

"The Man" has Detroit giving 1.5 and the total at 39.5. I will stick with my prediction for a Lions win and under the total, but I wouldn't touch.
Baltimorons @ KC

The Ravens travel to KC after a long week after a tough road loss to the division rival Cinci Bungles. KC comes off a bad loss in Cleveland after leading by 14 in the 4th quarter. Trent Green has been OK since coming back, but not necessarily lighting it up. The Ravens are in the hunt for a bye and and home field throughout the playoffs. The Chiefs are fighting for their playoff lives. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, where the Chiefs are 5 - 1 thus far this season.

I am guessing this is a pick 'em game and the total in the mid-30's...I will wait to see the final line before making any calls here.

"The Man" has KC giving 3 and the total at 36. I like the Ravens to bounce back and wreak havoc on Trent and company. I would also tend to go under the somewhat small number...but no official plays.

NE @ Miami

Miami ended its four game winning streak by losing last week to the desperate Jaguars. There is nothing they would love more than to send the Pats home wondering where their season is heading. I look for the Fins to play this game tough, but Joey should make enough mistakes for the Pats to roll in this one.

I am guessing the Pats are small road favorites and the total around 42...the Pats and over are intriguing, but let's see the final numbers.

"The Man" has the Pats giving 3.5 and the total at 37. This total looks way too small to me. I would lean toward the more talented Pats, but would ultimately stay away from the line.

NYG @ Carolina

Chris Weinke looks like he is going to get the start in this game for the injured Jake Delhomme. Throw in an injured Nick Goings and Ken Lucas and the injuries are mounting for the Panthers...as their playoffs lives slowly start to dwindle away. The G-men will be without Petitgout, Strahan and Webster, but they are starting to get healthier. The Giants gave a good fight last week against the Cowboys and showed they aren't folding the tents just yet.

I am guessing with Weinke starting, the Giants are small road favorites and the total is around 40. The Giants are very intriguing as the Panthers just haven't been able to get anything going and now are facing some tough injuries.

"The Man" has this as a pick 'em game and the total at 38. I am very intrigued by the G-men. The under would be my call based on Weinke not starting in over four years.

Philly @ Skins

Philly travels to Washington to continue their fight towards the playoffs. The Skins have handed the reigns to Jason Campbell and it hasn't been going too bad. Philly's hopes rest on the arm of Jeff Garcia. I look for Jimmy Johnson and the defense to confuse and blitz the new starter early and often.

Philly should be a small road favorite and the total around 37. The Eagles are very interesting as they are desperate and need the win. The total could be a play as well as these NFC East matchups tend to be close tight low scoring affairs.

"The Man" has Philly giving 1 and the total at 40.5...I would lean towards Philly but ultimately wouldn't play it. The under here is very intriguing to me...

Atlanta @ TB

Well, Bruce's homecoming wasn't too friendly after all. He got beat up, but he certainly wasn't helped by 2 dropped TD's. The Bucs come into the game with a healthy 53 man roster...but I am not sure that is a good sign as they have not been very good this year. The Dirty Birds meanwhile are more up and down than elevator on speed. They play two incredible games against the Steelers and Bungles then lay eggs for four consecutive weeks. Last week they finally turned it around.

The Falcons should be favored by about a FG and the total around 38. The Birds and under could be a play...let's see the final lines.

"The Man" has Atlanta giving 3 and the total at 37.5. I ultimately would stay away from the enigmatic Dirty Birds, but would certainly lean towards them and the under.

Colts @ Jags

Could the Jags defense be getting healthier just in time to make a playoff run? Well, they better be with the Colts coming to town. The Colts will not have Dallas Clark for the game, which will hurt some of their formations and takes a valuable weapon out of Peyton's arsenal. Every time these two teams play it is a dog fight and the Jags need this to stay in the chase for the wild card. In addition, we know they don't want to see the Colts clinch again on their home field.

The Colts are probably favored by about a FG and the total around 44. I think the Jags find a way to win this one and stay alive by controlling the clock with their running game, which makes the under real intriguing. Let's see the final lines.

"The Man" has the Colts giving 1 and the total at 44. These games tend to be slugfests. The under could be a play. I would lean towards the Jags, but would ultimately stay away from the line.

TN @ Houston

The upstart Tennessee Titans come into this game playing pretty good football. Vince Young is starting to avoid mistakes and is proving to be a legit leader in the huddle. The Texans come into this game winning on the road with negative passing yards...talk about something that doesn't happen every day.

TN should be favored by about a FG and the total around 40...I wouldn't touch this game with Trump's money.

"The Man" has Houston giving 1 and the total at 42. I wouldn't touch, but I would lean towards TN and the over.

Pack @ 49ers

The Pack got smacked hard at home last week by the Jets. The 49ers ran into the buzz saw known as the Aints on this board. SF is still in the playoff hunt, but looking slimmer and slimmer by the week. GB is just terrible.

SF should be favored by about 4 and the total around 42...but I wouldn't touch this game.

"The Man" has SF giving 4 and the total at 44. I wouldn't touch this game, but would lean towards SF and the under.

Seattle @ AZ

The Hawks are getting healthy and may be peaking at just the right time. The Cards...well they suck. I like the Hawks to win this one big, but I hate the heavy road favorite.

Hawks should be favored by at least a TD and the total around 44. I wouldn't touch the line, but the over could be interesting as the Hawks start rolling and the Cards continue to worry about the 2007 draft.

"The Man" has Seattle giving 3 and the total at 45. I really like the Hawks in this one. I would lean towards the over, but would ultimately stay away. I thought this could have been a double digit line.

Denver @ SD

Jake Cutler must be wondering why Mike changed QB's. He has not given them the spark they were hoping for to push them into the post season. The Botls meanwhile continue to roll along nicely and should get another piece back on D with Castillo returning this week. Not looking good for that playoff run for the Broncos. Throw in a beat up Al Wilson and the D will need some serious help to stop LT.

The Bolts should be favored by about a TD and the total around 43. I like the Bolts a lot on anything under a TD and maybe be willing to give as many as 10. Let's see the total as the over could be a play.

"The Man" has the Bolts giving 7 and the total at 41.5. I am very intrigued by the Bolts and the over...

Bills @ Jets

J. P. still sucks. Mangini has the Jets believing they can make the run to the post season. The Jets manhandled the Packers while the Bills were keeping it close with the Bolts at home. I like what Mangini is getting out of his team and how Chad is managing the game.

The Jets should be favored by about 7 and the total around 42. Let's check the final lines before we go any further on this one.

"The Man" has the Jets giving 3.5 and the total at 37. I would lean toward the Jets and the over here, but probably would ultimately stay away. Buying the half point to ensure a 3 point game would be intriguing...

Aints @ Dallas

Romo continues to roll and the Boys are on fire. The Aints seem to have no problem with the bad teams, but can't seem to get it rolling against the good ones. A win here helps either team tremendously on their quest for a bye and getting closer to a playoff spot. The Aints haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year. Their 4 losses are all to teams with winning records except the Steelers.

The Cowboys should be favored by about 9 and the total around 45. I am very intrigued by the Boys and maybe the over. We shall see what the final lines are first.

"The Man" has the Boys giving 7 and the total at 48. I would lean toward the Boys and the under, but wouldn't touch either as of now...although the injuries to Horn and Colston make the Boys an interesting pick.

Bears @ Rams

The Rams have been terrible as of late with a bad loss last week to the Cards at home. I guess Orlando Pace is that important. The Rams might have a chance this week as the Vikes were able to run all over the Bears after Tommie Harris left the game. The Bears meanwhile continue to stick with Rex, but I think the leash is getting shorter. Rumor is that Griese got more reps in practice this week than he has the past several, which should add to Rex's pressure. I think these guys will bring the heat on Marc Bulger and add to his sack total which currently ranks 3rd in the NFL.

The Bears should be favored by abotu a TD and the total around 39. The greatest show on turf isn't what it used to be and the Rams have been bad since Pace is gone. The under could be a play if the total is still indicative of the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams.

"The Man" has the Bears giving 6 and the total at 41. I am really liking this under as the Bears will bring it and contain the show. I also like the Bears, but wouldn't make them an official pick.

Brownies @ Pittsburgh

2006-12-07T15:37:00.000-05:00

The first week of the game is almost upon us and the snow is whipping around more than my dominatrix. Maybe a few more whips to my head would get us out of the -30.8 stars that we stand on the year. The full write up for the week will be coming in the next day or so, but let's get to tonight's action. The Brownies come into this game with Derek Anderson most likely making the start. This is usually where I pull out my Charlie Frye sucks joke, but he is most likely not playing. Cleveland is near the bottom in almost every offensive category. The Steelers come in as a top 10 defense, but without their two starting safeties. On offense, they don't have their 2 top wideouts. Could all this spell trouble for the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers? Not so fast my friend.

The field at Heinz Field will be a mess. This means you will need to be able to run the ball to win this game...check for the Steelers on both sides of the ball. Derek Anderson gets his first NFL start against on the road at Heinz field on a miserable night...check Steelers. Cedrick Wilson is out...check Steelers. The Steelers are favored by 7 and the total at 34.5. I think this game is ugly and plays out just like last week against TB...tight to the vest and the Steelers emerging late. Give the points and go under the total. These guys will be lucky to be able to walk on Heinz Field by the end of the night let alone run, which I think benefits the Steelers.

I am picking the Steelers -7 for 2 Stars and the under for 2 stars. Now someone please tell me why I am wrong...

Week 13

2006-12-03T10:44:00.000-05:00

Saints -7 for 2 stars
Over Saints 44.5 for 4 stars

In the words of Bill Cohwer...pitiful!!!

2006-12-03T10:15:00.000-05:00

Yes, the Gurus are struggling this year. After a big Turkey Day, they came back to a mess. Overall, we are down 28.4 Stars...now that takes cajones to put in writing and keep this torture up. However, everyone knows there are ups and downs in gambling and you need to ride the ship slow and steady. Last week we would have been 9-7 against the line on every game and 8-8 on totals, but we only count the rated plays here. I need to get to church to repent for my lost soul, so the write-up is going to be very brief today.

Vikes @ Bears

Rex is talking trash and the Vikes don't like it. I am not sure it matters. Vikes are getting 9 and the total is at 34. I woudln't touch either line, but would tend to go with the Bears as the Vikes are not a good offensive team and these are the games the Bears usually romp in. I also would tend to go over the small number.

Bucs @ Steelers

The Steelers are favored again and are giving a TD. Ward is out. Does this team have any heart left? I think they do...and MR. Gradkowski won't like the pierogies beign served at home after this one. The line is Pitt by 7 and the total at 40.5. I would lean toward the Steelers and under the number, but no official play.

Cards @ Rams

Rams are giving 6.5 and the total is at 47. The Rams have not been very good on O as of late and have edged the powerhouse 49ers and got shutout against the Panthers. I am not sure they should be giving anyone 6.5 points. Ultimately, I would go with the Cards and the under, but no play here.

Colts @ Titans

We might be able to remember these Titans after all...at least I know Jeremy, Tom, Plax and company will. The Colts are on a roll and giving 7.5 and the total at 46.5. The last time these teams met in Indi the gurus got bit by Vince and company. I would go with the Colts and the over, but ultimately no play is the sound move.

Jags @ Fins

The Jags have struggled on the road this year going 1-4. The Fins continue their mid season comeback. It is a pick em game and the total at 35.5. I would ultimately go with the more talented Jags and the under, but nothing to get me too excited.

49ers @ Saints

The story continues in New Orleans. They beat bad teams and lose to good teams. They are giving 7 to an upstart 49ers offense and the total is 45.5. I think Drew and company get it done...I would go with the Aints and the over...I smell a play here.

Dirty Birds @ Skins

Jason Campbell era has begun. Looks for things to continue as the Birds are a mess. Skins are giving 1 and the total at 38.5. No play, but would tend to go with Skins and under.

KC @ Cleve

Cleveland still sucks. Give the 5 and go under the small 35.5, but no official play here.

Lions @ Pats

These are the games the Pats dominate...but 13.5? I would give the points and go over the 41.5...but nothing official.

SD @ Bills

JP still sucks. Merriman is coming back. Look for the Bolts to continue the roll and cover the 6. Also, go under the 42.5...but nothing official.

NYJ @ Pack

Pick em game between two enigmas. I woudln't touch this game, but would tend to go with the Pack at home and under the 42.

Boys @ G-men

G-men are a mess, but winning this game solves everything. Don't think it will happen as Romo rolls again. No official selection, but would tend to go with the Boys giving 3.5 and over the 44.

Texans @ Oak

Oakland is giving 3 points...that ought to tell you how bad the Texans are. Don't touch this game for any reason, but would tend to go with the Raiders and the under 35.5

Hawks @ Broncos

The Jay Cutler era begins. Does he provide the same spark Romo has for the Boys? I want to see it first. Stay away for a week, but would tend to go with the Hawks getting 4 and under the total of 40.

Panthers @ Philly

No faith in either team here...tend to go with the Panthers giving three and under the 37.5, but nothing official.

A Time for Giving

2006-12-02T11:16:00.000-05:00

Lotion has taken away from all of you over the last month. At one point sitting at a Fat 8-2 and reeling after 6 losses. Record stands at 8-8 and nothing to be proud of. Those of you that have been with Lotion through the years know that this is the time of year Lotion dominates. No exceptions this year. Today starts a nice run right through bowl season. Lotion to put cheddar in your pockets so you can buy nice gifts and toys for the family. As Always, Stick with the Program.......it is the ONLY way to make $$$$:

Louisville Over 54.5

The Cards are playing for a likely BCS birth and will be focused today as the huge favorite. The Cards average 38 ppg per game. The Cards also play the run very well which means the Huskies will need to throw it to win. 2 teams throwing a lot means stopping the clock and scoring points. UConn has averaged over 30 ppg their last 3 games and the offense is playing its best ball of the season. Lotion sees this one getting into the 60's and going way over the total. Lotion starting the steady climb over .500 today with the Over.

Week 13 - Kicks off tonight

2006-11-30T18:39:00.000-05:00

Balt @ Cinci

The Ravens come into their matchup looking to clinch the AFC North title with a win again the Bungles. They have averaged almost 27 points a game since the Fossil was let go and McNair has got this team talking Super Bowl. Bungles come into this one after dominating the Browns on the road and beating the Aints convincingly in New Orleans. The forecast is for rain on and off all night and some of the dreaded wintry mix is approaching fast.

Cinci is giving 3 and the total at 40.5. There is no official play tonight, but I think the Ravens establish their dominance of the North with a big win. Based on weather, I would anticipate a low scoring close to the vest game and thus go under the total. Of course, we all saw the bad weather in Seattle have no affect on scoring. Ravens and under, but nothing official.

Official Week 12 Selections Continued

2006-11-26T10:59:00.000-05:00

Hopefully, our turkey hangover is behind us and we build on the nice Turkey Day.

Carolina -4 over the Skins for 4 Stars
Colts - 9 over the Eagles for 3 Stars
Jaguars - 3 over Just Punt and the Bills for 2 Stars
Bolts - 13.5 over the Raiders for 2 Stars

Turkey is gone...now it's business time

2006-11-25T23:34:00.000-05:00

We have a very abbreviated write-up this week due to the holiday. I will stick with the normal program of telling you who I like then deal with the real lines and final picks will be done tomorrow morning as is the normal course of business with the Gurus. We had a very productive turkey day picking up 5 stars and there are more nuggets out there for this week:

Cinci @ Cleve

Cleveland found a way to lose last week against my Steelers and still sucks. Cinci found their offense again in NO and has been impressive of late. Cinci should be favored by about 4 and the total around 42. I may surprise a few people and tell you that I think I would take the points in this one and go over. Frye hasn't been horrible lately and Cinci is beat up all over the place. They should be able to cause some TO's on defense, but Cleveland has enough to stay close. I think both teams will score some. No play here, but we will see what the final line is by "The Man".

"The Man" has Cinci giving 3 and the total at 42.5...no play is the only play on this game...

Jax @ Buffalo

Jags come in with the reigns being handed to Garrard and Byron on IR. They beat the ever living crap out of the G-men. However, the Jags tend to play to their competition and we know where we think the Bills and JP fit on that list. JP still sucks, but at least he figured out that throwing it up to Lee Evans is a good idea. I am guessing the Jags will be favored by about 6 on the road and the total around 38. I would tend to go with the Jags and the under, but probably no official play unless the final line is out of whack.

"The Man" has the Jags giving 3 and the total at 35. I wouldn't touch the total as I said, but the Jags are very intriguing to me...GuruJoe?

Pitt @ Ravens

Ray Lewis looks to get back on the field and play against the Ravens hated rivals...my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers only shot at the playoffs is to win out. I fear this week could be their killer. The Ravens come in playing tough D and jsut enough on offense. The Steelers handed the Browns 3 INT's and one of them was returned for a TD, but they had a miraculous comeback to hold on in Cleveland. Ravens should be favored by about a FG and the total around 38. I would stay away from this game, but if forced I hate to say that I would go with the Baltimorons and the under.

"The Man" has the Ravens giving 3 and the total at 38.5...my mind hasn't changed much.

NO @ Atlanta

The Aints come off a big loss to he Bungles where Brees threw for 510 yards, but three very important INT's (one of which returned for a TD and another in the red zone. Atlanta comes off a beating at the Ravens and 3 bad games in a row. Vick comes into the game under some heat after the last three games, in which he didn't match Drew's week 11 performance combined. Maybe the Aints D, or lack thereof, is just what the doctor ordered. I am guessing Atlanta is a small home favorite and the total around 45. I would tend to lean toward Atlanta, but wouldn't play the line. The over could be intriguing depending on the final total...look for a play of anything over 45 a strong possibility.

"The Man" has the Dirty Birds giving 3 and the total at 47.5. I wouldn't touch the line, but the total seems low...the Aints are scoring a bunch and the Falcons are giving up a bunch...however, Abraham is back and is a difference maker. He might be just enough for me to stay away.

Carolina @ Skins

Jason Campbell didn't look bad at TB, but certainly didn't light the world on fire. Carolina did a very serviceable job in beating the Rams at home. I look to the Carolina D-line to be the difference again. Carolina should be favored by about 6 on the road and the total around 36. I would tend to go with Carolina and the under. My official play would be Carolina if the line is less than a TD.

"The Man" has Carolina giving 4 and the total at 36. Carolina hasn't been lighting it up lately, however, neither has the Skins. Jason Campbell is now the QB. Portis is gone for the year. I like their chances in this one. Carolina will be a play. I wouldn't touch the total.

SF @ Rams

SF surprised some people by beating the Hawks at home. They come into this game winning three in a row after the beat down handed them by the Bears 4 weeks ago, although none to impressive with them coming against the mediocre Vikes, the Cowardly Lions, and the beat up Hawks. The Rams come into this game losing 5 games in a row and had previously lost in SF. The Rams will move Steussie to left tackle and plug someone in at left guard as they try to plug the hole left by Orlando Pace's injury. I am guessing the Rams are very small home favorites and the total around 42...I would stay away from this game with the Rams recent injuries. If forced, I would pick SF and the over, but I would like to see the Rams adjust to life after Pace before making a play.

"The Man" has the Rams giving 5 and the total at 45. I would stay away as I said before, but both these lines look to large to me.

AZ @ Vikes

Pillow fight of the week...AZ sucks...Vikes have gone from mediocre to sucking. The line should be Vikes favored by about 4 and the total around 36. I would stay away from this game, but would lean towards Vikes and under as their D should get it done. Remember I said stay away though.

"The Man" has the Vikes giving 6.5 and the total at 39. Don't touch...

Houston @ NYJ

Houston sucks...they come in off a bad home loss to the Bills. NYJ hung tough with the Bears, but couldn't muster an offense. Which incompetent offense will score more? I say the J.E.T.S JETS JETS JETS. I am guessing they are favored by about 4 and the total around 37. I wouldn't touch this game any more than my wife wants to touch me. I would lean towards the Jets and the under, but stay away.

"The Man" has the Jets giving 5 and the total at 40...doesn't look like anything has changed my mind here.

Oakland @ SD

Oakland is actually playing tough D, but they have not seen an offense like this since week 1 when the Bolts clobbered them 27-0 at home. You know what we think of Oakland. More importantly in this one is what we think of SD. SD is good...and may be the best team in the AFC. Their D is still weakened by Merriman still suspended and Castillo most likely out. However, have we mentioned that Oakland sucks lately. SD should be favored by about 12 - 14 and the total around 44. Anything under 2 TD's would intrigue me with the Bolts, but I would stay away from the total...favoring the under, but not making a play.

"The Man" has SD giving 13.5 and the total at 43. I am liking the Bolts as they are rolling...GuruJoe?

Chicago @ NE

Ricky Manning, Jr. is suspended. Eugene Wilson and Samuel appear to be out. Sweatshirt Bill is a mastermind of taking other teams' successes against various players and implementing a similar game plan. I am guessing he will do the same this week adn pressure Rex into some mistakes. NE should be favored by about 4 and the total around 42. I would ultimately stay away, but would lean towards NE and the under.

"The Man" has NE giving 3 and the total at 37.5...stay away as I said before...

G-men @ TN

G-men continue to be beat up and now travel to face a team that has been playing tough. They have lost two in a row and almost lost at home to Houston. Eli is playing more like Archie would now than his older brother. He looks like a deer in headlights at times. G-men should be small road favorites and the total around 40. I wouldn't touch a G-men's game with those injuries, but if forced I would go with the G-men on anything under a FG and TN anything over and I would lean toward the over.

"The Man" has G-men giving 3 and the total at 44...don't play this game as there are plenty of other nuggets out there.

Philly @ Indi

I am guessing the Sunday night would like to change again. Without McNabb, the Eagles are done...finished...caput...TN killed them after McNabb went out and went on to win big...and this is a pissed off Colts team coming in after losing on the road. Indi should be favored by about 14 and the total around 46. I would be very intrigued by the Colts on any line less than 14. I would tend to go under the total, but wouldn't touch until we see what else the Eagles can do without McNabb.

"The Man" has Indi giving 9 and the total at 44. I am really liking the Colts to rebound nicely this week...GuruJoe?

GB @ Seattle

GB comes to Seattle after an embarassing home loss to the Pats. Seattle meanwhile gets Hasselbeck back and Shaun without the rust. What better way to get warmed up than to face a weak Packers D? Seattle should be favored by about 9 and the total around 43. I would stay away for a weeek to see the Hawks play with all its parts in tact.

"The Man" has Seattle giving 8.5 and the total at 45...nothing here has changed my mind...

Let's Go Lotion!!!!!

2006-11-25T11:27:00.000-05:00

Cincy -4 vs. UConn. Bearcats roll today. Nuff said.

Lotion Picks Full of Trytophan

2006-11-24T11:00:00.000-05:00

Lotion is sorry to disappoint his dear followers and paying customers. Lotion will get it going today and roll right through the bowl season. Hope everyone enjoyed their Turkey Day. Lotion is back and hard at work. Time to right this ship and get to 9-6 after today!!!

Oregon State -3

The home team has won 9 straight Civil Wars. This year, the better team is Oregon State as they are rolling right now and the Ducks are leaking oil down the stretch. No need for a big write-up. The trends are in our favor and the better team is only laying a FG. The Beavers to win the Civil War and push Lotion to 9-6.

It should be called Lotiongiving......

2006-11-23T16:17:00.000-05:00

Lotion giving you girls a weekend of picks for the price of one. Lotion slumping right now.....maybe the Guru's are rubbing off on him!!! Lotion sitting at 8-5 and still making $$$$. Check back daily as Lotion expects to have 3 selections this Holiday weekend. Enjoy your Bird while Lotion gives the Man the Bird! As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

B.C. -3.5 Lotion could write 10 paragraphs as to why B.C. will win this game by 14-20 points. From Coker, to "this team is going to play for their coach", to "the back up QB is better than Wright"......blah, blah, blah. This is going to be the final nail in the U coffin and it will come in embarrassing fashion on national TV. B.C. has been waiting for this chance to smash the Canes. This one will be ugly and be ugly early. Lotion to be 9-5 starting a weekend sweep!

Stuff your wallets in addition to your turkey

2006-11-23T11:50:00.000-05:00

The Gurus are wishing all of you a Happy Thanksgiving...and here are your picks for the week...at least the first set of games:

Dallas - 11 vs. the Bucs - Romo and the Boys are primed while the Bucs lose their defensive leader in Simeon Rice for the year. Look for a huge win by the Boys. 3 Stars

Under 39 in the Broncos/Chiefs - 2 teams that love to run the ball and can play D...short game and short drives. 2 Stars.

Week 12 - This is Bradshaw's number...that has to be a good omen right?

2006-11-22T09:51:00.000-05:00

Only three games to analyze as of now, but more will be coming later in the week. Last week we managed to lose another 4.9 stars. This is the longest dry streak since, well we got married...we have given "The Man" 27.6 of the 29 Stars we won last year back. Although, we have been riding Lotion hard all year and added a few plays of our own in college for a positive year. Here is your analysis of the T-giving Day games...

Miami @ Detroit

Joey is coming to Thanksgiving Day dinner this year...I am not sure he will be welcomed with open arms. The Cowardly Lions are beat up and not playing well. The Fins come off 3 wins in a row...no thanks to Joey. Their D has been playing phenomenal and making plays.

I am guessing the Fins are small road favorites and the total around 38. I wouldn't touch this game with your wallet. If I had to play this game, I would go with Detroit and the under. Never bet against Detroit at home on Turkey Day.

"The Man" has the Fins giving 2.5 and the total at 39...nothing has changed my mind...

TB @ Dallas

Dallas come into this game after a very impressive win over the Colts. They boast the 4th ranked rush D and the 3rd ranked socring offense. None of this is good news for the Bucs as the only thing they attempt to do is run the ball and their D wreaks of mediocrity. Romo has been very impressive thus far and I see no reason that shouldn't continue this week.

I am guessing the Boys will be favored by about 9 and the total in the high 30's. Dallas at home on Thanksgiving is always intriuguing...and this year is no different. I am not convinced the Bucs will score in this game.

"The Man" has Dallas giving 11 and the total at 39...I can't see TB keeping this one close...I like the Boys at home...the under is intriguing, but I would ultimately stay away...I don't see Bucs scoring more than a cheap late TD...this will be a 24 - 7 type game as the Boys will just control the clock similar to the Cards game two weeks ago.

Denver @ KC

I don't think Mike and the Broncos will be very happy coming into this game after blowing a 24 - 7 lead. Fans and media are calling for the Jay Cutler era to begin. KC comes in after a very unimpressive win against the Raiders and a loss to the Fins. LJ is still putting up big numbers. I am not sure the running of LJ and throwing only when absolutely necessary will cut it against this D...but LT sure looked good last week. I keep telling you that Arrowhead is a tough place to play and the short week always favors the home team.

I am guessing the Chiefs are a small home favorite and the total around 39. I would not play the line as who knows which Jake or which KC team will show up. If forced, I would take the Chiefs. The under might be a play as both teams will want to run the ball and control the clock.

"The Man" has the Broncos giving 1 and the total at 38.5. The total started at 39.5 and has come down a full point...I am still intrigued by this under as two running teams will make for an exciting first game on the NFL Network...NOT!!!!

Prediction Time

2006-11-22T09:11:00.000-05:00

This week is the game we have been waiting for all year. Forget the National Title game and whether the Irish deserve a shot at the bid. This is USC week. Every time I think about last season’s game and Matt Leinart’s first down conversion on 4th down and forever and the Reggie Bush push, I get sick to my stomach. Do the Irish get a little pay back and finally end the streak that Willingham inflicted on the ND nation?
ND has a puncher's chance against the Trojans. The Irish have the best quarterback in the country and two All American caliber receivers (McKnight is getting hosed because he didn’t play last year, but his numbers are just as good, if not better than Shark’s). Troy Smith is a great college QB; Quinn is better. Quinn doesn’t have half of the all-around talent that OSU does. OSU does not have a weakness. Sure ND may have more talent at a few positions, but ND has glaring weak areas. OSU is a complete team and Troy Smith is going to win the most valuable player on the best team award . . . also known as the Heisman trophy.
The injuries to Carlson and Schwap may be huge. Obviously, in a game like this, any lost starters hurt. USC has some casualties as well. Most notably one of their semi-phenom freshmen running backs, Emanuel Moody (avg. about 6 yrds/carry), is out. USC has a much deeper bench than the Irish, particularly at RB. USC definitely wins the injury battle.
Clearly, this year’s version of the Trojans is not in the same stratosphere as last year’s club with two Heisman trophy winners and Lendale White – just to name a few of their missing stars. Make no mistake though, this USC team is still loaded with talent. USC receivers Turner, Smith and Jarrett are likely the best three tandem unit the Irish will face all season. Michigan’s Manningham and Ga. Tech’s Johnson are better than any of those three guys, but those programs were not as deep with superstars at the wideout position. Last time I checked, the Irish have a difficult time defending the pass. Not good. Luckily for the Irish, David Josh Booty is chucking the ball to them. Booty is a very good QB, but he is not Leinart. Booty definitely has the skills to hurt the Irish, but he also could lose the game for USC by bad throws at critical times or costly interceptions. The USC offensive line is very solid, but Landri has been playing like a man possessed. I think Landri has a Chris Zorich like performance this weekend on his return to his home state. USC will score plenty, but the Irish may find a way to get a couple of stops and more importantly a couple of turnovers.
The Big Kansan believes the game really comes down to how ND’s offense performs, not its defense. The Irish have struggled mightily against teams with good defenses: UCLA, Ga Tech Michigan and even MSU (their defense was okay before the perennial melt down). All of these teams took the Irish to the brink (or in Michigan’s case, took the Irish to the woodshed). The reason: great defense that stymied the vaunted Irish attack way too many times. Inexplicably, the Irish offensive line has underperformed . . . drastically underperformed. The Irish run game has been inconsistent at best and Quinn has hit the turf way too often. USC has one of the most athletic defenses in the country. Their linebacker corps is right up there with PSU’s linebackers, only USC has deeper bench. ND could find some holes in the USC secondary. USC does have a stud frosh, Taylor Mays, starting at safety. This is his first ND game and he may have some jitters that Quinn can take advantage of during the game. At the end of the day, the Irish offense has to find a way to ball control this game and shorten it. Quinn has to have a chance to get to Shark and McKnight. ND will feel the loss of Carlson when USC gets pressure because Carlson is a stud on those hot reads.
ND has all the intangibles. I have rarely felt this good about a game against a team with so much more talent and good coaching. The loss last year has been eating at ND for more than a year. I’m confident Charlie wants this game more than any other. The Irish play well on the road. Call me crazy, I just think the Irish find a way to win this one. My brain tells me that the Irish lose this one, but just like the Michigan game when I went with the intangibles, I am going to roll with the intangibles again. ND wins in another classic on a last minute redemption field goal.
Prediction:
ND: 29 (missed extra point will cause a scare)
USC: 27

Week 11: No Trip to Heaven

2006-11-21T16:29:00.000-05:00

OK, Ok....we know we are struggling but who would think Favre is going down in the first half and the Indy game was a shootout...in the Second Half. Who knew the Jets could stop ANYONE???

Anyway....here is the week that was

Balt is just starting to get respect. Billick stepped in just at the right time to claim all the praise as they continue to win in UNSPECTACULAR ways. You think Ray will be back for a home game vs the hated Steelers??? I KNOW he will and frankly it scares me a bit. A convincing win next week and even I’m gonna have to become a believer of the hated Ravens led by hated villain Billick. Meanwhile ATL continues to show little heart. Unable to bounce back from prior losses, showing nothing…..two more weeks and we’ll be talking about how great they are, well I won’t be but give Vick 2 good games and he’ll be the future of football again.

The Steelers Played 2006 Football….throwing the ball all over the place, handing the Browns turnover after turnover, letting Charlie Frye picks us apart and their running game look like LT all the while our running game did nothing and WRs dropping balls all over the field….BUT we won. What does this tell us??? That’s right….Cleveland sucks. As for the Steelers, they continue to hang by a thread and they have a HUGE test this week at Balt….OUCH. Gonna be a slobber-knocker.

Hey anyone see that Buffalo last second TD to win the game? Me neither and who cares.

Hey anyone see that impressive……oh cmon, who cares about the Wash / TB game either?

Detroit took a few games to look like they were going to make a season out of it and come out of their funk and then someone realized winter was coming and they decided to hibernate. UMMM….HEY DETROIT……Lions don’t hibernate…that would be bears but even they are still gathering food. But seriously, have some fun with Joey this turkey day….anyone in Det notice he’s won 3 in a row?

Ok, well he hasn’t exactly won 3 in a row but the Miami D stepped up again with 14 points and beat the class of mediocrity in the NFL….the Minny Vikes. Watching Joey in Detroit on Turkey day will be the ONLY interest of that game. How do you win a game with negative rushing yards? How do you lose a game when you hold a team to negative rushing yards? How do I bench Jamal Lewis for Ronnie Brown in my Fantasy Team?

What happens when you’re Hall Of Fame QB goes down in the first half and your Def sucks when you are playing a team coming off consecutive ugly losses and hasn’t lost 3 in a row since my wife last uttered the words “I need you” then didn’t follow it up with “to do…blah blah blah”???? Right, your backup scores 0 points and this pissed team puts up 35 with 5 different players hitting the end zone.

This is the Rams Offense….this is the Rams Offense with no Pace. UGLY. Rams are hitting tough times meanwhile the Panthers continue to unimpress but get by. Good thing mediocrity in the NFC South still wins you the division. Carolina has the ability to turn it on and has 6 games to start breaking out with the Second Seed still way up for grabs.

I’ve been calling Philly a sieve on Def all year. I was proven right once again. This is why you come here……analysts won’t always call it like it is….Philly is simply no good on Def and now without McNabb they are done. Travis Henry is looking good these days….I don’t bench him anymore.

Shaun is back, Matt is coming…..forget about SF, the NFC West is still Seattle’s to lose as long as they get healthy. That said, their underrated Defense of last year is playing to their middle of the pack rating. Giving up 212 rushing yards to Frank Gore on any field is a big No-No. Bad Seattle…..bad, bad Seattle.

Hey, belligerent, salty old men Dolphins pop your champagne and cling to your glory for another year……you crusty old sons of bitches. Is there a more miserable group of guys than them. Anyway……this week Dallas is once again the darling of the NFC….’peaking at the right time’, “Romo has been the answer all along”, “Bill has this team poised for a big run”….blah blah blah. We’ll enjoy the banter for this week and next after they bludgeon TB at home on turkey day.

Peyton…..poor Peyton….ill timed INTs my friend. As always, get to Peyton, get him out of his zone and he can be beat. Never quite looked comfy in this game did he?

Is Berrian that critical to opening up the Bears Offense? Has the blueprint been put forward in how to stop the Bears Offense? Az held them down, SF couldn’t, Miami followed AZ’s plan, the Gmen had no DL to do anything and the Jets held Grossman to 119 yards. Is it Berrian or is it just clear how to play these guys? The answer to that question might determine the NFC Super Bowl rep this year.

I’m personally disappointed that NO came out so flat on D at home vs Cincy. Cincy is finding its Offensive stride while its D did what it does best…….give up A LOT of yards but come down with key turnovers to keep the other team from scoring. NO is struggling on Def but racking up yards on Offense.

SD is for real. We were dead wrong on these guys at the beginning of the season. With Indy’s latest offensive struggles the last two weeks SD appears to be the class of the conference. Stealing a game at Mile High when tied with the home team was HUGE. LT is the best player in football and their best Defensive Player isn’t even on the field. Screw Peyton, I’d like to see a rematch of SD’s Offense vs Balt D in the AFC Championship game (assuming my Steelers aren’t there).

Oak sucks and so does the KC passing game.

Speaking of sucking, is there a worse team to watch than the Gmen??? I like Tiki, he’s a class act but watching Burress and Shockey pout and stomp around is just hard to stomach. Whaaaaa….whaaaaa. Gmen are slipping, injuries all over and they will struggle to keep it together…..my gut feeling folks.

Week Eleven Official Picks

2006-11-19T10:56:00.000-05:00

No big write-up as you have seen it in the others:

Your 3rd 5 STAR pick of the year - Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Over 49 Indi/Cowboys - 4 Stars
Over 38 Bears/Jets - 3 Stars
Over 44.5 GB/Pats - 2 Stars - Eugene Wilson and Asaunte Samuel are out.

Here is hoping to a big guru week.

Week 11: Repent for a trip to Heaven

2006-11-18T12:04:00.002-05:00

The gurus are taking some heat for sure but there is still time to make big plays and get it back and good card on board this week so look for the final selections.

Chicago -7 @ NYJ over 38
The Jets got up for NE last week because Mangini wanted to stick it to Bill and I think Bill’s fanny still hurts this week but that’s now Favre’s problem. The Jets are one game out of first by some miracle and we’ve been talking about their heart. Jets can’t stop the run which takes pressure off Grossman. I don’t like the idea of betting against a team coming off a big win, playing with heart, playing at home and looking to show the league that they can make a playoff run. I’m not saying the Jets win this game but perhaps they have enough heart to keep it close. That said, I like the over in this game. I think Chicago will put up some points and Pennington has enough heart to keep it close. I’m thinking 24-20ish type of game. Well over the 38.

MN @ Miami under 33.5
The Dolphins are not playing horrible D at home and Minny is mediocre just like I said at the beginning of the year but 34 points just to cover. Cmon GuruBob, can’t Joey hand that to Minny through his mistakes? I can’t see taking an under when you have a QB that is prone to handing the other team points. Too low for my liking.

Oakland @ KC under 36.5
I guess we need to call Randy and see how his mood is before making a play here. KC is not an easy place to play, Green is coming back with some big F’ed up helmet that seems to impair his vision and Oak actually might have a good pass D. Won’t matter as KC runs LJ all day, shortens the game and Oak can’t score. Now this is a game I might bet under 33. I can’t see Oak scoring more than 10 and KC will just control the clock, take their win and move along.

NE -6 @ GB over 44.5
Oh brother guru…….we have been bitten by Favre. Just enough to know to stay away from games where he is getting 6 points at home and the opposing teams weakness on D is their pass D. I know Tom is going to be pissed as is Bill but dare I say there is a tad of a mutiny at NE? Are Bill’s players questioning him? Maybe NE really isn’t as good as we thought. They have Super Bill and his sidekick Bat Tom but maybe that really isn’t enough. The over on the other hand is interesting for the same reason. Weaknesses on both sides vs the Pass. Both QBs are smelling blood and I’m thinking a bit of a shootout. Cmon Favre…..don’t screw us here.

Pittsburgh -3 @ Cleveland
Alright, I’m not being a homer here but the Steelers are playing damn good football EXCEPT for those god aweful mistakes. AGAIN let’s say that it appears the team (yes after just one win) appears focused. Given this, they are much better than just 3 points here. Rueben isn’t even playing so cmon. Pittsburgh by 10 here.

The Dirty Birds @ Baltimorons
Talked out. I can’t bet for or against inconsistencies like the Fuckons. Don’t touch this game. You touch it and all of the sudden it will be the next in the series of “This Vick is just the most amazing player to see the field since…..well since GuruJoe’s short stint in the greentree mini-mytes.” Stay away.

Colts @ Boys over 49
Before I looked at the lines I said I didn’t care what the number was here I’m liking the over. Roy Williams is a great hit and stops the run but he gets beat deep. Don’t even know who the other Safety is. Both teams have high powered Offenses. The Cowboys can run all over the Colts and Peyton won’t have the luxury of knowing he can take the day off like he did last week vs Buffalo. He’s gonna need to keep up because the Boys will score. Shoot out at the OK Corral.

Bolts @ Mules over 42
Shanahan owns SD in Mile High. LT has never rushed for over 100 yards there. Plummer has been up and down all year….mostly down gurgling on Mike to keep his job I guess. Anyway, I digress….if the LT trend continues and Jake is still playing with Mike’s ball sac this could be a low scoring affair. This is the type of game where you expect points based on the teams but a huge divisional game IN Mile High might surprise us.

Lotion soothing the Gurus Pain

2006-11-17T23:49:00.000-05:00

I have been in contact with Lotion today and he has made his official pick. Unfortunately, I don't have a clever write-up for his pick, but I can assure you to stick with the program as it is the only way to make money...

Arizona State -5.5 over the UCLA Bruins...

It is a shame to beat up the academies...

2006-11-17T15:27:00.000-05:00

However, we need to get to a BCS game. Here are the Big Kansan's thoughts for this weekend:

Prediction Time:
Pretty short and sweet this week. The Caissons are definitely not rolling along this year. Army has one of the worst all around defenses in all of college football. They simply do not have anyone to defend our receivers. They played Texas A&M tough in College Station, but don't look for a scare like that this weekend. Texas A&M relies on the run, ND does not.

.Army does not run a true triple option team. They dabble. Too bad for them, because Rick Minter would let them get a ton of yards on us if they ran option.
ND rolls in Brady Quinn's last home game.

ND: 45 Army: 14

I hope week 11 leads us to heaven...

2006-11-17T15:08:00.000-05:00

Basically hoping week 11 is like week 7 is that we need to get back to the positive side and start cutting the deficit. If you don’t believe in the Gurus, then take your chances on the other side and see how your year ends up. I am going to add a little something to this week’s write-up and that is tell you my leaning on each side and line…then come back with picks later in the week.

Rams @ Carolina

Rams come off another rough loss to division rival Seattle and also manage to lose their starting left tackle and CB for the year. Wow, which hurts more, the loss or the injuries? Carolina meanwhile was booed at halftime, but came back to have an impressive second half and defeat the Bucs easily. Julius Peppers is a man among boys on the field…as he harassed poor Bruce Gradkowski almost every play. The offensive line of both teams have been playing terrible, so dare I say that is more to Carolina’s advantage than the Rams with their DL and now Orlando Pace gone…Marc Bulger will become very acquainted with Mr. Peppers.

I am guessing the Panthers are favored by about 4 or 5 and the total around 42. I would ultimately stay away from this game regardless. However, if forced to play this game, I would go with the Panthers and the over. My only concern is the Panthers can’t run the ball, which is the Rams weakness on D, but with Fisher out in the defensive backfield I am sure Mr. Smith should get some opportunities.

“The Man” has Carolina giving 6.5 and the total at 45…my mind hasn’t changed any. If Carolina had been more impressive lately, then I would be jumping on them especially with Pace and Fisher gone.

Skins @ TB

This is one of three pillow fights on the schedule this week. Clinton Portis breaks his hand, so the Skins change QB’s. Jason Campbell must be wondering who he pissed off to get thrown to the lions den…actually more like walking the plank…without his top weapon. Grad meanwhile has the Bucs offense running as smooth as a Hummer with no shocks on block wheels. On the other side of the ball, neither the Bucs nor the Skins D is imposing fears on opposing offenses.

I am guessing that TB would be a small favorite to pick ‘em game and the total around 39. This clearly is a stay away game as who knows what Jason will be able to do without Portis…we know Grad can’t do much. If I had a gun to my head, my inclination would be to take the Bucs and the under with the Bucs’ young QB having more real game experience.

“The Man” has the Bucs giving 3 and the total at 33.5. The game started as a pick ‘em, but the line has climbed to three. I guess more people have faith in the rookie who has played than the guy getting his first start. This is still stay away. The total looks really low, but with two young QB’s there could be a lot of stalled drives. I would trend to the over this small a number, but would still stay away.

Bungles @ NO

Cinci comes into this game still beat up and giving up a huge lead at home to the Bolts. The Aints played a tough game in Pittsburgh, but ultimately the Gurus and the Steelers were victorious. Cinci found its offense last week putting up 41 points…and still managed to lose the game. Carson had a key fumble late in the game to help the Bolts to victory. I have been telling you all year the Bungles were not going to be able to survive all those injuries and this game epitomized it. The Aints continue to play with heart and could have won the game at Heinz field last week. The Aints come into this game with the #1 passing offense against the 28th ranked pass D of the Bungles. This to me is the key stat. The Bungles made a living last year on the INT and they are not getting them as often this year.

NO should be favored by about 3 and the total around 45. I can’t say that I would like this line, but the over would be very intriguing to me. NO has averaged almost 28 points per game over their last 4 games and the Bungles are putting up over 26 per game over the same time period. Let’s see the final lines and total.

“The Man” has the Aints giving 3 and the total at 51.5. I would not touch either of these lines, but if forced to play I would go with the Aints and the over. This number is just too high to bet over it.

TN @ Philly

Jimmy Johnson must be wondering what to do here. We know he loves to blitz and usually his team does a good job, but they must contain against the Young one named Vince. TN has been playing better lately, if you can ignore the Jags game two weeks ago. Vince has been playing pretty much as expected…low completion percentage, but making a few plays with his legs. I am going to guess that Johnson keeps him guessing this week. Philly meanwhile comes into the game after beating up on the Skins and still having the #1 ranked offense.

Philly should be favored by about 10 or 11 and the total around 38. Titans have been playing just well enough to scare me away from any number over 10. If forced, I would ultimately go under if it is at the 38 because who knows how much TN will score. TN has given up 3 TD’s or less only twice all year…one of them against the Colts and the other against the Fins. Philly would be the most intriguing play for me.

“The Man” has Philly giving 13 and the total at 43. Both numbers are too high for this guru. I would tend to go under the total and Philly if forced, but neither will be an official play.

Chicago @ NYJ

Chicago makes their second trip in two weeks back to the Meadowlands to face the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets. Chicago was having a hard time finding their offensive rhythm on Sunday night until Thomas Jones broke a long run on a 3-22 and they scored 4 plays later. It seems most teams are trying to copy the blueprint on how to beat the Bears from the Cards, which is to blitz Rex and blitz him often. Chicago is the #1 rated D facing the 25th ranked O of the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets. The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets come off a huge win at NE this past weekend. It was an ugly game with bad weather, but the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets proved their meddle and took down the giant of the division. This win keeps the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets right in the middle of the playoff race. I am not so sure Chad will have the same success this week.

I am guessing Chicago is favored by at least a TD and maybe as high as 10. The total should be in the high 30’s as the Bears should be able to score on the lowly J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets D. I would definitely be interested in Chicago in anything under a TD. I would bet over as the Bears could put up 30 like they have in more than half their games thus far, but would stay away.

“The Man” has Chicago giving 7 and the total at 38. The over and the Bears are both intriguing to me. Chicago has gone over the total in each of the last 6 games. NYJ had gone over five games in a row before the last two…one of which was against Cleveland and the other in the slopfest that caused the Pats to change their playing surface. If the Bears handled the more talented G-men like that, what will they do to the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets.

MN @ Miami

Talk about two teams going in opposite directions. Miami comes off two wins against KC and Chicago. MN meanwhile come into this game off two losses to GB and SF…ouch…that will hurt your playoff chances. This game will put 2 top ten defenses against two very average offenses. Joey has been throwing to the other team as often as Elton John makes passes at bartenders, while Old Man Johnson is wishing he qualified for Medicare now. I would rather watch the world championship of midget tossing over this game any day of the week.

I am guessing based on the last two games by each team that Miami is favored by about 4 and the total around 34. Ultimately, this line would have to be way off for me to look at it further, but I would tend to take Miami as they are coming on strong…after virtually being eliminated from the playoffs. The under could be very intriguing depending on the final line as neither team has an offense and their D’s are solid.

“The Man” has Miami giving 3 and the total at 33.5. Can you really bet under a number this low? I am intrigued GuruJoe…

Oakland @ KC

Trent Green gets back to action as the old school coach, Herm Edwards, does not believe in his stars losing their jobs because of injury…I only wonder how short the leash will be. I can tell you right now that I hate this game. A QB coming back after not playing for 9 weeks will either come out on fire to get his team back or have lots of rust. I tend to think it will be the first part, but you never know. The Oakland D meanwhile continues to impress…it is a shame the offense ahs no playbook…or heart…or sense of caring. Rumors are swirling that Brooks might take back the helm after Walter bashed the playbook. I don’t think it matters, but Brooks might be able to gun it to Moss a few times.

KC should be favored by about 9 and the total around 40. You all know by now that I think Oakland sucks. I would tend to lean toward the Chiefs, but would stay away due to Green’s inactivity. As for the total, I would be intrigued by anything under 40, but I bet it comes in closer to 37, which is just high enough to scare me away. The under would be the play if there was one.

“The Man” has KC giving 9.5 and the total at 36.5. Enough said above…stay away, but that under is still calling my name…

NE @ GB

The Pats come into this game losing two in a row for the first time since 2004. Brett Favre is starting to believe he can make a run and has cut down on the INT’s. If there is a more up and down team than the Pack let me know…beat MN on the road…after losing to Buffalo…which came after beating AZ and Miami…which came after losing a close at home to the Rams. GB’s biggest problem is defending the pass…and now they face a very mad Tom Brady. It should be interesting. The only good news for the Pack and Favre is the Pats have been vulnerable to the pass all year yielding over 220 yards per game…and this is against teams that have an average of the 21st best pass offenses in the league. Does Favre have any magic left?

The Pats will be favored by about a TD and the total around 43. I think Favre’s magic will come to an end this week and their playoff dreams will be shattered. I would ultimately stay away from the line unless NE is favored by less than a TD. The over is most intriguing as I think this could be a shootout on the frozen tundra.

“The Man” has the Pats giving 6 and the total at 44.5. GuruJoe, how many times have we been bitten by a Favre over this year? The over and Pats are both real intriguing to me. The Pats can’t lose three in a row, right? So the question is can they win by less than 6…I don’t think. GuruJoe I need your help here.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

I refuse to call any game the Steelers are involved with a pillow fight, so this is not the second one mentioned above. Browns suck, even if they do have the same record as the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. This game like all others will come down to the Steelers ability to protect the ball. I think they win this one easily, but a few brain farts by Big Ben and the Brownies could emerge victorious. The most glaring stat for this game is the putrid Cleveland offense and the two hurt CB’s.

Pittsburgh should be favored by about 7 and the total around 39. I would be very interested in the Steelers if the line is less than a TD, but any more and I have to stay away. Ultimately, I think there is a better chance of Pittsburgh winning big than Cleveland keeping close. I would stay away from the total no matter what it is as the Steelers could score 30 themselves or get bit by the turnover bug.

“The Man” has the Steelers giving 3 and the total at 37. I think the over will hit, but it won’t be an official play…you can’t bet Charlie Frye will score anything…however, this pass D might be just what he needs. I am very intrigued by the Steelers…I originally thought this line could be as high as 9 until I started looking a little more. This number looks way too small to me.

The Dirty Birds @ Baltimorons

Well, maybe the Michael Vick show isn’t all it was built up to be. After two career games against the Steelers and Bungles, Vick has gone back to the good ole days. He has completed just 45% of his passes and thrown 4 INT’s the past two games. On the flip side, he has had 154 rushing yards the past two weeks. Which Michael Vick will show up this week…I know Atlanta is hoping for the one from the 2 earlier games. The Ravens meanwhile come into this game after coming back from a 26 – 7 deficit against the Titans…yes I said Titans. The Ravens displayed no heart early, but were able to come back and pull out the victory. The Ravens offense has been on a roll averaging almost 30 points a game since BB fired The Fossil and took over the play calling. This game has the #1 rushing offense facing the #2 rushing defense. The Ravens are most likely going to be without Ray Lewis who is having some back problems. I don’t see that it will matter much as the Ravens have decent depth at LB and the Dirty Birds rushing numbers clearly are skewed because of Vick.

I am guessing that the Baltimorons are favored by about a TD and the total in the upper 30’s. The way their offense has been scoring and without Ray Lewis, the over might be the most intriguing play here. The Falcons have given up almost 28 points per game the last five weeks and the D is still beat up. I like the Ravens as well, but I think the over might be the better play.

“The Man” has the Batlimorons giving 4 and the total at 40.5. I think this number is too small on the line and total. GuruJoe, am I nuts picking an over of a Ravens game? They have gone over 4 games in row…The Ravens might also be a play, GuruJoe talk me out of it.

Buffalo @ Houston

Do you believe that someone actually has to watch this game? I feel bad for the NFL Network guy who has to report on this game. This is the second pillow fight of the weekend. Just Punt gets hit more times than a heroin addicts veins. Maybe Mario Williams can have his break out game…if he can’t do it this week, then they best be worried. The Texans come into this game on a little roll having beat the Jags twice and keeping games close against the G-men in recent weeks. The Bills were on the verge last week of being down 14 – 3 at half until a game changing fumble returned for a TD made it tied at 10.

I am guessing the Texans will be favored by about 4 and the total in the mid-30’s. There is no way I play this game. However, if I was forced into making a call like that smile George W. has to fake after losing the house and senate because of his ineptness (or voters stupidity), I would lean toward the Texans and the under. If you play this one, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn I want to sell you.

“The Man” has Houston giving 2.5 and the total at 36.5.

Detroit @ AZ

The third and final pillow fight has the Cowardly Lions coming off a horrendous home loss to the 49ers visiting the AZ Cardinals. The Cards look like a team that has quit on their coach. They haven’t scored more than 3 TD’s since the almost upset of the Bears…and since then they have played the Boys, Packers and Raiders.

I am guessing AZ is a small home favorite and the total in the low 40’s. Sticking with the new write-up I will say the Cards actually win and cover one and I would go over the total. However, I would not recommend anyone play this game.

“The Man” has AZ giving 2 and the total at 44.5. Like my wife says on a regular basis…please don’t touch.

Seattle @ SF

SF is in the hunt in the NFC for the wild card spot. They have played decent the last two weeks, but the competition has been the Lions and Vikes…and you know what we think of these teams. Shaun Alexander may return for this game and that should help boost their rushing attack against the somewhat soft 18th rush D of the 49ers. Seneca is most likely going to start again and he has done an admirable job against the Rams, Raiders, and Chiefs going 2 – 1…there isn’t a person in Seattle that would be upset with that.

I am guessing the Hawks will be favored by about 3 and the total around 40. Are the 49ers for real after two wins against bad teams? I am not sold on that yet. Let’s see the final line and total. If I am correct, I would tend to stick with Seneca and go over, but let’s see the final line. I doubt this will be a play this week.

“The Man” has Seattle giving 3.5 and the total at 44.5. I stick with my leaning, but would ultimately stay away.

Colts @ Boys

The undefeated Indi Colts come to Texas for a showdown against the Cowboys. The Colts slid by a bad Bills team last week after having two impressive road victories against the Bucking Mules (Broncos) and the Pats. The Boys come into this game off a bye week…what’s that?...They played last week?...Yeah, but it was only AZ…as I was saying, they come into this week off a bye week. The last good team Dallas beat was the ’95 Steelers in the Super Bowl…and we got robbed by the refs…ok, just kidding. They beat Carolina handily in week 8. However, the rest of their wins this year include: Skins, TN, Houston, and AZ…their losses include a tight one against the Jags to open the year, Philly on Drew’s mistakes, Peyton’s little brother manhandling them, and the Skins on a blocked FG. What does all this tell us? Peyton is better than his little brother, so by the transitive property of football the Colts win easily.

In the infamous words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. The Boys have a tough D, but clearly have been susceptible to the long pass…I did say Peyton was coming to town didn’t I? I hate to tell Griese and friends, but this might be the year…they don’t pop the champagne. I know the Colts are vulnerable on D against the run, but as long as they stay within one possession, I have no doubt Peyton will take them on a winning drive. I think the Colts should be a small road favorite and the total around 50. I wouldn’t touch the line, but think the Colts prevail. The over could be a play, but I am guessing it might even be higher. I would go over anything less than 48.

“The Man” has the Colts giving 1 and the total at 49…the over is still intriguing to me here…GuruJoe any chance both these teams don’t score in the high 20’s?

Bolts @ Mules

I mean Broncos…The Bolts come off a miraculous comeback against the Bungles. The Broncos slid by the Raiders again…bastards killed my added play. The Bolts D was non-existent last week without Castillo and Merriman…luckily they play the conservative Mike Shanahan this week. The Broncos are averaging 17 points a game, but had been better with two consecutive 31 point games in a row before last week. The Bolts meanwhile are averaging 33 points per game. Are you ready for another shootout? I think that the game starts slow and conservative and then both teams start opening up. The Broncos should be able to run on the depleted Bolts D and Jake just needs to not throw the game away…but that is asking a lot of him.

I think the Broncos should be favored by about 2 and the total in the high 30’s. I think the Mules get it done at home and cover this one, but it would not be an official play. The over could be depending on where it comes out.

“The Man” has the Mules giving 2.5 and the total at 42. I am still looking at this game and thinking the over should hit fairly easily, but then again I thought the Mules would kill Oakland after Mike’s trash talking. GuruJoe?

NYG @ Jags

The G-men come into this game decimated on the defensive side of the ball…Tuck, Strahan, Madison are out…Osi, Short, Emmons are beat up…the offensive side of the ball is starting to take their hits…Luke is out…Toomer was hurt before last week…Barber is probable. The Jags come off an embarrassing loss at home to the Texans in which Garrard threw 4 INT’s. The Jags D should come out ticked off and ready to make some plays…the question is whether the offense will as well.

I think the Jags should be favored by about 4 or 5 and the total in the mid-30’s. I would stay away from the game in general due to all the injuries on both sides of the ball for both teams. I would lean towards the Jags and under, but neither will be an official play unless the line is way off.

“The Man” has the Jags giving 3.5 and the total at 39.5. Nothing has changed from my analysis above…

You think there were a lot of injuries last week...

2006-11-14T15:52:00.000-05:00

Well look at our record and you will see even more bloodletting. The Gurus had a second straight negative 10 star week bringing out season total to negative 22.7 stars...who else includes all the juice with their records? Well, we felt good about the picks, but they didn't come through. Here is the week that was, or was not depending on how you want to look at it:

I, of course, will start in my home town where the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Aints of New Orleans. Big Ben looked good...Willie Parker showed signs of greatness...but most importantly, they didn't turn the ball over once. The Aints did so three times. The only real shocker about this game was Fast Willie getting caught twice from behind on long runs.

Reggie Bush is going to be good if used in the right way. I personally think Payton is using him perfectly.

The Fins are going to go on their end of the season run to keep themselves out of the playoffs and out of a high draft pick. Make no mistakes about, this game was won by their solid D. Joey continues to struggle.

KC meanwhile just hurt their playoff chances a little with a bad road loss. Which KC team will step up next week?

In case you didn't know...LT is good. He is the best all around back and probably player in the NFL right now...hands down. I liked Rivers' poise as he brought the team back.

The Bungles on the other hand take a major blow to their playoff chances and their egos. Does Housh know where he is yet do you think? Carson looked good, but the fumble cost his team the game...if one play can cost a team a game.

Two weeks ago, Michael Vick was the next coming of John Elway with his scrambling ability and strong arm. Now let's just say he ain't that good...isn't it funny how the Gurus ups and downs have coincided with Vick's...hmmmm.

Cleveland still sucks.

Don't look now, but the 49ers are in the wild card spot race in the NFC...that just depresses me more. I am sure they will fall eventually, but let's give them credit with a quality win against the Vikes at home and then going cross country to lay the smack down on the cowardly Lions...by the way they aren't so good.

The biggest disappointment of the game is the Colts holding on to win by a point against the Bills. The Colts could easily have lost this game as Lindell missed a 40+ yard FG in teh 4th quarter. The Colts gave this game away at the end of the first half when Utecht fumbled and the Bills recovered and returned it for a TD to go in at half tied at 10 rather than down 13 - 3 at a minimum. Huge momentum changer there, but Just Punt kept killing drives and eventually the better team won.

Favre wins one in a dome...miracles never cease...maybe MN is...shall we say...mediocre?

The biggest upset has to be the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets going to NE and winning. I know it was ugly and the field was a mess, but NE is supposed to be the better team with a strong running attack. Chad and crew just took it to the Pats. Give credit to their D, they ran run blitz after run blitz and dared Brady to beat them through the air on a miserable day...and it worked. Would anyone else agree that maybe Young Eric out-coached the genius sweatshirt?

The Skins laid an egg and now are moving on to Jason Campbell. Portis broke his hand and is now out indefinitely. Wonder if Joe misses the race cars...you can't hear the boos because of the engines...

The Texans showed the Jags they are for real...well against them at least. They win their second game this season against the Jags. Someone please explain this one to me, because I don't see it. I see a tough D that should manhandle a soft offense, yet the Texans took it to them again. Jags now fighting hard for a playoff start. Garrard will remain the starter because Byron looks more injured than first thought. However, once he gets healthy, there will be a full-fledged QB controversy down there.

Just when you think Jake Plummer has it all going, he has to throw 3 picks and ruin my added play. Is it possible the Raiders pass D is really not that bad? I always thought it was so good because teams were always up and could run. Don't look now, but the heartless Aaron Brooks might be back after Andrew Walter ripped his offensive playbook. I am sure that will help.

Josh Brown does it again...nailing a last minute FG to give the Hawks the lead and control of the division. Alexander and Hasselbeck are also getting closer to returning...looks like they will be in the middle of the playoff picture once again...The Horned Goats (Rams that is) meanwhile may have killed their chances at a post season berth. They certainly aren't out of it, but 5 - 4 would look much better.

Romo makes no mistakes and the Boys hammer the Cards...do you think Edge misses Indi YET? The Cards are bad and not showing much sign of improvement. At least Leinart is getting his valuable experience.

Which Guru told you the Bears would feast on the depleted DL...while it was close early and certainly was in question, the injuries were just too much to overcome for the G-men...not to mention two game changing plays like the Jones run and the missed FG run back.

I honestly could not stay awake and watch that game last night...I guess ity must have gotten a little better after the half. Grad is looking like a rookie...of course, Mr. Peppers has that effect on many players. Can someone please tell me what is wrong with Delhomme? He has been less than impressive. I know his O-line is beat up, but when he does have time he is missing guys or not finding them.

Infirmary report:

Long list today with a bunch of significant ones...Portis out at least 3 weeks with a broken hand. David Givens returns just in time to tear his ACL. Joe Cullen lost his clothes - you have to read the article about him getting caught driving under the influence naked... http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2661708 ...Tony Gonzo is out at least one week and maybe up to 3 or 4 with a sprained shoulder. Luke Petitgout breaks his fibula for the G-men...ob Whitfield will step in for him. Patrick Kerney may be out for the year with a torn pectoral muscle...this hurts an already weak run defense. Greg Ellis tears his achilles and is gone for the year. Houston will place defensive tackle Travis Johnson, offensive tackle Zach Wiegert and cornerback Lewis Sanders all on injured reserve...they may have won this battle, but the war ain't looking so good. Orlando Pace is gone with a torn tricep...this will hurt a very avergae O-line. Finally, Troy Polamalu might miss teh game in Cleveland with a concussion.

Added play:

2006-11-12T12:51:00.000-05:00

The Denver Broncos easily win in Oakland...Denver minus the 9 for 3 Stars.

Your final Week 10 picks

2006-11-12T12:03:00.000-05:00

Here are the key selections for today:

Indi - 12 - your second 5 Star pick of the year. We are not fooled by the Bills win last week against GB.

KC +1.5 - Miami still shouldn't be giving points - 2.5 stars

Jags - 10 - 2.5 stars - Jags will avenge the loss from a couple weeks back...the D is rolling and Garrard has the team believing

Skins/Philly under 42 - have you seen the weather map? This is a late add due to the rain and wind - 2 Stars

Week 10: GuruJoe's response

2006-11-12T09:19:00.000-05:00

NYJ @ NE (-10.5) and Over
Poor scheduling for the Jets as they have the unfortunate opportunity to meet the Pats, IN NE after the loss to Peyton. Bill and Tom really don’t like Peyton and all that “who is better” talk. Poor Chad should suffer as a result. JETS Defense is second to last in the league. The only chance the Jets have is with Chad and Coles because NE’s weakness is stopping the pass. I don’t think this keeps it close but makes me like that over. I’m smelling a 35-17 game.

Skins @ Philly
GuruBob, Philly has lost 3 games in a row, their Defense isn’t that good and they have limited weapons on Offense and can’t control the clock. They only things they have going for them is they are off a bye week and at home but that’s not enough to be giving anyone a TD. Divisional game where all of the sudden Wash believes they have a chance. STAY AWAY.

Cleveland @ Atlanta (-8)
This one is intriguing because ATL should cover this easy IF the right team shows up. I think after a bad road loss they come out pissed off just like they did vs the Steelers 3 weeks ago following their embarrassing loss at home to the Giants. Based on how clev played last week vs SD and how ATL laid an egg, I ultimately stay away.

KC (+1.5) @ Miami
Nope, can’t talk you down from this ledge. We were dead wrong on Chicago last week but the Monday Morning QB came out and we missed one critical point of that game: Saban was desperate for something and what better way to prove he had something than knock off the undefeated Bears. AZ handed him a blueprint and the schedule makers handed him two weeks with that blueprint (they were off a Bye). Well, that’s past, Joey is still the QB and he has a run in with the Law this week. Miami shouldn’t be giving anyone points at this point in the season and LJ is on a role. Don’t get crazy with it GuruBob but maybe play it.

GB @ MN
Farve in a dome. Could he actually hand Minny enough points? We generally play overs in bad teams playing each other with a low number but you might be right here. I always hate Farve and an under because he slings that bastard around and any given play puts the under at risk.

Buffalo @ Indi (-12)
I was shocked when I saw this line wasn’t 18. Indy can’t stop the run, we all know that but Just Punt can stop drives. I don’t see Peyton failing to score on any possession therefore they just need to stop Buffalo twice. They won’t have to, Just Punt will himself. Willis is out but A-train stepped in last week but that was against GB…..just as bad as Indy I realize. Buffalo put up 24 points vs GB last week thanks to 4 turnovers. Their 4 scoring drives where 19 yards, an INT return for TD (no offense required), 2 plays for 33 yards, 3 plays for 27 yards. They simply SUCK on offense. I love this play. Indy will score 30. If I thought Buffalo could put up 17 the over would be interesting.

Baltimore @ TN
McNair with revenge on his mind? The Defense playing for him and shutting down TN? Or does Fisher want to show Stevie a little something?

Ray Lewis might not be playing and how many weeks will they be relying on their D to score points.

Houston @ Jags (-10)
Houston still stinks. G-men were all banged up and I think the revenge factor from the 7-27 loss the last time they met should be enough motivation. Jax D has found life the last two weeks SINCE giving up 27 points to Houston 3 weeks ago. I think they’ll want to pummell Carr. We got killed with a lot of big numbers to favorites last week but its hard to stay away from. The man is testing our fortitude.Denver @ OaklandOak can’t score. Period, Exclamation point. They are horrible on Offense. Denver seems to have found an offense but I’m still not convinced. At Oak might be what scares me away here.

St. Louis (+3) @ Seattle
This is a game I really liked. STL has a HORRIBLE D but Seattle is still getting by with Seneca and Maurice. This game could be for the division. Hard for me to believe STL doesn’t win this game outright let alone keep it close with to a FG. The away factor may be my only concern here. Seattle has ONLY beaten OAK since losing Hasselbeck and we know how we feel about Oak.

The 10th week is no time for the meek...

2006-11-12T00:11:00.000-05:00

Well, week 9 wasn’t the best week for the Gurus, but we plow forward. We haven’t been this negative since the Republicans lost control of the house. Trust the Gurus will come back from one horrendous week…because we will.

Week 10 is the beginning of the second half…remember this game goes three deep into the payoffs…I fully believe the Gurus will be positive at the end of the day as they have been the last three years. Here we go with week 10…to show we are real men. I am starting a new trend…I will give you my preference on every game. Sunday morning, we will give you our weekly picks…if you are lucky, we will get them done by Saturday night.

NYJ @ NE

The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets travels to the Pats. The Pats come off a loss against the Colts in which Brady threw an inexplicable 4 INT’s and no TD’s…do you think they might be mad? The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets comes into this game with the 30th ranked rush defense and faces a pissed off Tom Brady…that can’t be good for them. The only positive I can think of is they come off a bye week.

The Pats should be favored by about 9 and the total at 38…at home in week 2, the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets made a huge comeback to make this a game…I don’t see that this week…let’s see the final line and total.

“The Man” has the Pats giving 10.5 and the total at 38…you would think that I write these lines myself. I hate that extra .5 point, but the NYJ rush D is horrible. They were lucky to get back into the game earlier in the year and this game is in Foxboro. GuruJoe, do you think Tom might be mad after last week’s loss? The over is intriguing here as well…NE puts up points on bad teams.

Skins @ Philly

The Skins come off a miraculous victory against the Cowboys. The Eagles come off a bye during which Westbrook says his knee improved dramatically. The Eagles come into this game with the top ranked offense facing the 30th ranked D. The Eagles certainly didn’t look good against the Jags, but many offenses seem to be affected by that D.

I am guessing Philly is favored by about 6 and the total at 37…I am very intrigued by the Eagles at home, but let’s see the final line.

“The Man” has Philly giving 7 and the total at 42. The Skins were lucky to win last week and the Eagles are coming off the bye…but I just can’t get that Jags game out of my mind…GuruJoe, do the Skins have a chance?

Cleveland @ Atlanta

Cleveland D meet the #1 rushing offense…in case you weren’t aware, your D is only 29th against the run. Vick had a down game against the Lions after two great games. They won’t need him to pass against the Brownies…of course, the Atlanta D hasn’t been too stellar lately giving up an average of over 30 points the past 4 games.

Atlanta has to be favored by about a TD and the total around 42…based on the Browns showing at SD last week and the Black Birds showing at Detroit, this has to be a stay away game.

“The Man” has the Dirty birds giving 8 and the total at 42…no line value here for this guru, although I still think Cleveland sucks.

KC @ Miami

The Fins shocked this Guru last week in beating up the Bears on the road. They did it the old Dolphins way, with D and the rushing attack. Ronnie Brown looked great carrying the load with 29 carries and gaining 157 yards. KC meanwhile just keeps rolling along with an impressive victory at the high-powered Rams. Damon Huard keeps getting it done and we all know what LJ can do.

KC should be favored by about 5 and the total in the low 40’s. I am not a believer in Joey after one game…KC might be a play here…let’s see the final line.

“The Man” has the Fins giving 1.5 and the total at 40.5…I think the oddsmakers are remembering one game too much and all the preseason hype…GuruJoe, talk me out of the Chiefs getting a point…I dare you…

GB @ MN

Favre reverted back to throwing TD’s to the other team last week and the Pack Attack lost on the road to the lowly Bills. MN meanwhile went well below the level of mediocrity by losing on the road at SF. I believe it was right here that mentioned this could be a trap game for the Vikes. We all know Brett’s futility in domes over the years and I can’t see that being any different against the tough Vikes D. The MN offense isn’t lighting the world on fire, but maybe the Pack D is just what the doctor ordered.

MN should be favored by about 4 and the total in the mid-30’s. MN has been fairly strong at home…aside from the Pats game…they took the Bears to the limit, beat Carolina and a bad Lions team…I think the Vikes win this one easily, but mediocrity is always scary.

“The Man” has the Vikes giving 5.5 and the total at 40…this total looks way too high to me…the Vikes D has been solid all year and their O has been less than stellar…GuruJoe, am I nuts going with this under?

SF @ Detroit

SF comes to visit the cowardly Lions after their big home win against the Vikes…if it is possible for a 3-5 team to have a big win. If their win was big, then the Lions win was just as good at home against the Dirty Birds. The only real advantage I see in this game is the Lions pass offense against the weak SF pass D…no other stat really stands out.

Detroit is probably favored by about 5 with the total coming in the low 40’s. Last week I took the over between two bad teams and got bit (GB@ Buffalo)…is this Guru dumb enough to do that again? Maybe…let’s see what the total is.

“The Man” has the Lions giving 6 and the total at 46…this total is too high to go over…

Buffallo @ Indi

In the first mismatch of the week, the Just Punt led Bills come to the Colts who are on a roll. They come home after two great victories in Denver and NE. Buffalo comes to town with a mid-tier D and a less than stellar O. The Colts have averaged over 32 points per game against Denver, Pats, and Skins…Do you think Peyton is licking his chops at the thought of tasting a Buffalo?

Indi should be favored by at least 2 TD’s and the total at 45…with McGahee the Bills have zero chance. I like the Colts on any line less than 14. I would have gone over, but without McGahee, who knows if the Bills can score.

“The Man” has the Colts giving 12 and the total at 44…I find this line hard to believe…I really thought it would end up around 16 – 17…the Bills suck. GuruJoe, is there any chance the Colts lay an egg this week after two huge victories? I don’t think so…I like Peyton to keep rolling.

Baltimore @ TN

Tennessee welcomes back a familiar face when Steve McNair and his boot come to town. Tennessee comes off a big time butt whipping at the hands of the Jags. They face a very similar D this week in the Ravens…and I don’t think it will matter if Ray Lewis suits up or not. They have superior talent across the board on both sides of the ball…and don’t you think McBoot will be fired up after the way he was treated after all those good years?

The Ravens should be favored by about a TD and the total in the mid-30’s. The Ravens could be an interesting play, but I will wait for the final line. I wouldn’t touch the total, because who knows if TN will score at all…last week their only score was in junk time.

“The Man” has the Ravens giving 7 and the total at 38…ultimately, I would stay away from a road favorite with a questionable offense…but I am definitely intrigued.

Houston @ Jags

The schedule makers were nice to the Jags…back to back games at this point in the season against the likes of the Titans and the Texans. Garrard was impressive in his second start and will remain the starter for the foreseeable future. The Texans gave the G-men a run for their money as well as the Titans the week before. Do you think the Jags remember 3 weeks ago when they were embarrassed by the Texans? I do…revenge is sweet.

Jags should be favored by about 10 and the total in the high 30’s. Anything less than 10 and the Jags are a play. I would stay away from the total.

“The Man” has the Jags giving 10 and the total at 37…I am still really liking the Jags…GuruJoe, talk to me here…was that game in the Meadowlands last week enough to scare you away?

SD @ Cinci

The AFC North Defending Champs come limping into yet another game. The OL is still beat up. The D is in even worth shape. Lucky for them, Castillo and Merrimen will not be on the defensive side of the ball for the Bolts. Unfortunately, they are healthy on the offensive side of the ball.

I think SD should be a slight favorite or it should be a pick ‘em game. The total should be in the mid-40’s with both defenses depleted and both O’s able to put up points…let’s see the final lines in this one.

“The Man” has SD giving 1 and the total at 48…ultimately too close to like this one…

Denver @ Oakland

Oakland sucks…plain and simple. Last time these guys met Jake had 102 yards on merely 18 attempts. They played not to lose by running it and running it often. The Raiders are terrible on offense…and that may be insulting other terrible offenses.

The Broncos should be favored by 17, but the line will be about 12 because of their last meeting. The total will be in the mid-30’s. Can the Broncos really win this game by less than 2 TD’s…their O has certainly taken off since their last meeting averaging almost 27 points since then…let’s see where the final lines comes in…I wouldn’t touch the total as the Raiders shouldn’t score at all…the under would be most intriguing.

“The Man” has Denver giving 9 and the total at 33…I can’t see this being less than a 10 point game…Oakland truly sucks…GuruJoe?

Dallas @ AZ

Matt Leinart is still looking for his first win. They come off their bye week and should be primed to face the Boys. The Boys come off a sloppy loss against the Skins. Without out Fitzgerald, they haven’t been able to score more than 24 points. There offense has sunk to 27th in the league. This does not bode well when you are facing the #5 D in the league. This is another game that should be dominated by Boys, but will they live up to the hype.

The Boys should be favored by about 7 and would win this at home by 14 easily. However, the Cards are coming off a bye and get Fitz back…that is just enough for me to stay away. The total will probably be in the high 30’s…the over would be most intriguing, but you can’t make that call with a team as impotent as the Cards on O lately.

“The Man” has the Boys giving 6 and the total is 43…I would lean towards the Boys and over, but ultimately stay away from this game.

St. Louis @ Seattle

The Rams go to the rainy state after a disappointing home loss against the Chiefs. The good news for the Rams is that they almost beat the Hawks at home 4 weeks ago with Hasselbeck and many other starters in there. The Hawks are beat up. Seneca hasn’t looked horrible, but the pressure to score will be a little greater this game. St. Louis brings the 4th ranked pass offense to face the 27th ranked pass D. Can Seneca pull another one off?

I am guessing the Hawks will be a small home favorite and the total in the mid-40’s. Emotional divisional game with lots of injuries on one side of the ball…this all leads to a no play unless the line is whacked out like Anna Nicole.

“The Man” has the Hawks giving 3 and the total at 43…I would tend to go with the Rams and the over, but ultimately a stay away game with Seneca in there.

Aints @ Pittsburgh

My boys, the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, keep handing the ball to the other team and not so coincidentally losing. They have the 5th ranked pass offense, which we all know is not Steeler football. However, they are dead last in turnover ratio with a minus 11. The Aints come to town with a balanced offensive attack and a D playing better than expected.

I know the Steelers are favored by about 5 and the total is probably around 43. The Steelers shouldn’t be giving anyone 5 points, but if they don’t turn the ball over, then could easily win this game by more than 5. The over could be a play here…let’s check it out.

“The Man” has the Steelers giving 5.5 and the total at 46…the Aints have gone over in 5 of their 7 games and the Steelers have gone over any game in which they face a decent Offense save the SD game…ultimately, this is a little too high for my liking…

Bears @ NYG

The biggest game of the week has the Bears licking their wounds and heading to the Big Apple. They have had an up and down couple weeks…barely beating the Cards on the road…smashing the 49ers…then getting beat badly for the first time by the Fins. NYG meanwhile keeps rolling along, although last week was closer than anyone would like. Plax is talking smack. The G-men defense is about as healthy as a leper colony…not what you want when you are playing the game that could be for home field throughout the playoffs.

NYG should be small favorites and the total in the mid-30’s. With all those injuries on the Giants D, it would be tough to go with them.

“The Man” has the G-men giving 1 and the total at 37.5…I would trend under here and the Bears, but the defensive injuries are what would keep me away from this game…too many game time decisions.

TB @ Carolina

Carolina comes into this game disappointing their fans after the Super Bowl hopes have been laid upon them. Their O has been struggling lately. Their D was unable to take advantage of a green Tony Romo. The Bucs meanwhile come into this game after getting butt pirated by the Aints. Grad is being praised by Gruden, but their talent just isn’t what it used to be.

Carolina should be favored by about 7 and the total around 37. I like the Panthers in this one, but I have liked them often this year and been burnt…let’s see the final line.

“The Man” has Carolina giving 9.5 and the total at 37. Earlier this year, the Panthers won by 2 in Tampa…there is enough film out there on Grad now and he has certainly been less than impressive since…GuruJoe, should we jump off the Carolina bandwagon that we have been on? That one win ATS is what has me wondering.

Lotion Time!!!

2006-11-11T11:38:00.000-05:00

Last week, a “pick six” and late TD pushed the LSU/Tenn game over the total. That is why an “Under” bet is never over until the final horn. Whereas an Over bet can win at any point during the 60 minutes. Oh well, Lotion loves a Sun Belt game this weekend but will only be releasing that to his paying customers. The casual follower that reads this Blog prefers the more high profile games. So Lotion is giving you the best high profile game on the board this weekend. Lotion standing at 8-3 on these pages. Expect that record to be 9-3 after this weekend. Lotion still WAY on the positive side of things and has already clinched a winning season. As mentioned earlier, an Over bet can win at any point during the game. Lotion is like your Over bet……he is gonna guarantee you positive money before the “game”/season is over. He did that after week 10……..the best in the nation. As Always, Stick with the Program…….it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Florida -13

Those of you that have been making money on Lotion’s picks the last decade know he luvs the dogs. However, you can never ignore the chance to get a valued home favorite with intangibles built into the line. The Ol Bawl Coach returns to Swampville this Saturday. Emotion will be running high on and off the field. America will play Spurrier in this game regardless of the line and that is why Vegas has it set at 13. Lotion’s model favors the Gators by 18.5. Therefore, there is 5.5 points of value here. Florida’s offense is nothing like it was during the Spurrier years. But the defense is one of the best in America. All the factors point to a 17-20 point victory by Florida here. Louisville lost which puts the Gators in the driver’s seat for the NC game. South Carolina has played their worst football the last 2 weeks whereas the Gators are playing their best football. SC loves to run the ball and no one runs on Florida. The Gators will have SC playing from behind early and without a passing game, which is a recipe for disaster. Florida does not have the offense to win this game by 30…….but it does by 20. Lotion loves the Gators in this spot. Spurrier and his Cocks are chum for the Gators this week.

Prediction Time: Notre Dame v. Air Force

2006-11-09T22:44:00.000-05:00

The Big Kansan has a lot to think about this week. Air Force is truly a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Which team will the Irish face in the high altitude of Colorado Springs. Will the Irish face the Falcon team who lost to Tennessee on a failed two point conversion in Knoxville or will they get a taste of the bums who found a way to lose to San Diego State? Charlie Weis is counting on the squad who took the Volunteers to the limit and unfortunately that is the team that will show up on Saturday.
Air Force has a similar scheme to Navy’s wishbone, but it has more diversity. Air Force actually has the ability to pass from time to time. Look for Zibby to get burned deep on the play action. Hopefully, Notre Dame figured out how to defend the pitch man. Inexplicably, it took the Irish an entire half to figure that out against the Middies. The Big Kansan was ready to throw his beer through the big screen TV after watching Navy blitz the Irish defense on the pitch. I understand that not many teams run the option, but it isn’t rocket science and the academy athletes don’t have the talent that the Nebraska and Oklahoma teams of the 80s had. If Coach Rick Minter doesn't have our boys ready for the pitch man this week, Charlie should fire him during the game. The QB, the pitch man and the fullback should be covered on every play. Leave the corners on an island. We may get burned, but I doubt it. For the Irish to get burned the corners have to get burned by slow receivers and the QB has to still throw the ball on the money. I’ll take our chances with that vs. letting the pitch man get 10 yrds on every play while the safeties push them out of pounds. Just put Duke on one side and Zibby on the other and nail the pitchman every time. Thomas and Brokington get the QB and the rest of the defensive line and Crum mop up the inside stuff. Pretty simple plan that would work. Unfortunately, I think Minter plays a base defense and lets Air Force shorten the game with prolonged drives and scores.
So, that means the Irish better bring their A game on offense. The only way the Irish lose this game is if they lose the turnover battle by at least a couple turnovers. I don’t think that will happen. Quinn will continue his push for the Heisman. I suspect that he will put up some big numbers on the Air Force D. BYU and Tennessee blitzed Air Force through the air. What do you think will happen with Quinn, Shark, McKnight, Carlson and Walker (yes, this is a rhetorical question)? The Irish will have a nice game on offense and in the end it will be too much for the Zoomies. Air Force shortens the game, but ND scores effortlessly.
Prediction:
ND: 38
AF: 21

Mid-Season Awards

2006-11-09T15:54:00.000-05:00

MVP/Offensive Player of the Year: Big Ben is officially eliminated from this list…so we will go with Peyton Manning. His team is undefeated and he clearly is the leader of that team. Honorable Mention: LJ, LT and Brady…I would have Steve Smith here if they were still undefeated with him playing, but they lost two very winnable games the last two weeks to knock him out.

Defensive MVP: Champ Bailey…he is the best shut down corner in the NFL on the best scoring defense in the league…and no I am not saying this because of last week’s game. He cuts the field in half and takes out the opposing team’s best WR. Honorable Mention: Shawn Merrimen.

Coach of the Year: Sean Payton – he has brought the NO up in practically all statistical areas including the most important one…wins. He brought Brees in to lead his team. He has been magnificent in using Reggie and Deuce. Honorable Mention: Herm Edwards for bringing that Defense back to respectability and handling the Green injury. Marty Schottenheimer for his handling of Philip Rivers and making that team believe in him.

Worst Coach of the Year – Nick Saban – Daunte should never have seen the field until he was healthier and now the season is gone. Honorable Mention: Dare I say Bill Cohwer?

Comeback Player of the Year: Ray Lewis – he is once again leading a great defense. He only played in 6 games last year and they looked lost without his leadership. Honorable Mention: Damon Huard – wasn’t he in the QB graveyard?...I am pretty sure you have to have been somewhere though to be the comeback player.

Best Coaching Move of the Year: Naming Tony Romo the starter in Dallas…the statue of Drew was getting killed. Honorable Mention: Jack Del Rio putting Garrard in at QB...this still needs some time to prove out. Putting Matt Leinart in at QB – the Cards aren’t going anywhere and now he is getting valuable experience.

Worst Coaching Move of the Year: Putting Tony Romo in to start the second half against the G-men…this seems contradictory to the above, but it is not. He did not have the proper preparation to be thrown to the wolves like that. Honorable Mention: Playing Big Ben against Oakland one week removed from a concussion…that has to be the reason the Steelers lost that game and all hope. Starting Daunte Culpepper at the beginning of the year when he wasn’t healthy – I can’t give the same guy two awards can I?

Surprise of the Year: This one is a tie for me with Damon Huard and Philip Rivers…both have been very good and playing above expectations.

Best Offseason Move of the Year: The Aints taking a chance on Drew Brees…he has that offense in the top 10 and the folks around him believing. Honorable mention: I personally think there are a lot of good ones but here are a couple of others: KC signing Damon Huard to be their back up. SD not resigning Brees and handing the reigns to Rivers. Ravens getting Steve McNair.

Worst Offseason Move of the Year: Houston drafting Mario Williams – he has been a non-factor for most of the year and they missed out on a talent like Reggie Bush. Honorable Mention: The Pats refusing to sign Deion Branch even though they had plenty of room under the cap. The Seahawks giving all that money to Nate Burleson (their 4th WR when they are healthy) instead of Steve Hutchinson. Raiders signing Aaron Brooks – he wasn’t very good on a bad NO team…what made you think he would be any good on a bad Raiders team?

Talk about a kick to the groin

2006-11-09T10:45:00.000-05:00

No, I am not talking about Brayton's kick of Jeramy Stevens. I am talking about the kick to the Gurus in week nine. I guess instead of it being all mine, it was more like here take all mine. I personally was shocked at this past weekend. About the only thing I predicted right last week was the Vikes being in a trap game, but it was not an official play. So now we stand at a negative 10.4 stars on the year after taking an unusual amount of games last week.

Here are some of the highlights from last week's action:

The only thing worse than our picks is the realization that the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are out of it this year. Big Ben looks timid...Max Starks couldn't block Brittany Spears...our corners cover less than Britt's outfits...Joey does more kicking - and whining - then he does sacking.

Do you think the Broncos miss Ahsley Lelie or is Javon fitting in okay?

Someone please explain how the Falcons can lay an egg in Detroit? I guess those weapons have finally started to gel in Detroit...too bad it may lead to another 6 - 10 season.

I guess history can repeat itself...Fins go into Chicago and knock off an undefeated Bears team...at least there are some people happy in south Florida. Will the Fins make another late season run and become the darling pick in 2007?

Rex will make some mistakes, but in the end the Bears will be there.

The Baltimorons proved they are the class of the AFC North with their dismantiling of Carson and the Bungles. I personally think it was right here where you heard the Bungles were more likely to be a 9 - 7 team than an 11 - 5 division winning team. The offensive line is a mess...the defense is a mess...and I am pretty sure someone is due to be arrested again soon.

The end of the Cowboys and Indians game looked a little like the old games we used to play in the neighborhood...a bunch of kids running around out of control...what an ending...BTW, TO needs to shut up now that he has had several key drops...

I am really liking the Aints...just as a feel good story...it is going to be tough to root against them this Sunday at Heinz field.

Can someone please tell me what happened to KC when they came to Heinz field? They have looked like worldbeaters since then...Damon freaking Huard is second in the league in QB rating...

G-men clearly were looking ahead to this week...I hope...although the DL is beat up...should be a good game...

Any team want to give up a 1st round choice for Byron...I think he may be available...Garrard is going to be the man going forward. The controversy is on...

Cleveland still sucks...and Oakland still swallows...I know that is not nice...but it is true...although I still can't believe the Bolts had a little trouble with them.

The Pats vs. Colts game was phenomenal as advertised...Brady had some unlucky bounces on that night or all the undefeated teams would have been beaten. I told you never to give Peyton 3 points...unfortunately, the other nuggets were more like cow pucks than gold...

Look for another exciting week 10 to cut into the deficit...

Who doesn't like the nine?

2006-11-04T23:57:00.000-05:00

At a positive 7.2 stars on the year, we look to a nice card for week nine. We have six selections today, which is more than normal. However, if you look at the analysis, these were the only games even considered. Trust me when I tell you a huge week is upon us.

GB/Bills over of 40.5 - 4 Stars...I couldn't believe this wasn't at least 5 points higher...this will be settled by halftime.

Chicago - 13.5 over the Fins - 4 Stars...I will continue to ride the Bears until they prove me wrong.

NYG - 13 over the Texans - 3 Stars...the line value here comes from Sage's second half performance and the G-men implementing a conservative gameplan against the Bucs last week. The Bucs D is a lot tougher than the Texans.

SD - 12.5 over the Brownies - 3 Stars...Browns suck...nothing more to say.

KC/Rams over 48 - 2 Stars...this game will be like the Rams vs. Seattle game or SD @ KC...easily over 50 on this total.

Atlanta/Detroit over 46.5 - 2 Stars...the Lions should be able to use that offensive talent to put up some points on the Falcons weak D and I have no idea how they can stop Vick and company.

Week nine is all mine...

2006-11-04T22:18:00.000-05:00

Week Nine is upon us and the Gurus keep the winning streak alive. We were up .4 stars this past week bringing the season total to a positive 7.2 stars. Throw in Lotion’s incredible 8 – 2 record and we all know you are making money on the gridiron_gurus. Now onto this week’s action…

Atlanta @ Detroit

Hot Lanta comes to Detroit riding a couple of big games by Vick through the air. Has he possibly found the pocket to his liking? Used to making more plays with his legs than arm, Vick is making a believer out of this Guru as well as some of the national experts. The defense has not been playing exceptionally well, giving up roughly 31 points in each of the last three games. Detroit has some playmakers on offense in Kitna, Jones, and Williams. Their lone win came at home against a bad Buffalo team. It is hard to believe that you can’t spell Detroit without a D, because this team doesn’t is definitely missing the D. They are 25th overall and next to last in scoring D.

Atlanta is coming off impressive wins against the Steelers and at Cinci. I am guessing they are favored by about 6 and the total in the mid-40’s. The line will probably be big enough to scare me away, but the over might be a play…let’s see what “The Man” has to say…I like over anything under 45.

“The Man” has Atlanta giving the Cowardly Lions 5.5 and the total at 46.5…the over is real intriguing as both teams should be scoring…Atlanta should score 30…can the Lions put up at least 17 on the weak Hot Lanta D? GuruJoe, what do you think here?

Cinci @ Baltimorons

The Morons are coming off a nice road win and have control of the AFC North. This is a huge game as the Bungles will either end up tied with the Morons or they will end up 2 games behind with a loss against them. The Cinci offense may have gotten back on track last week…or could it be the bad Atlanta D. The Bungles come in with the 18th ranked offense facing the 3rd defense in the league. I think they may learn quickly that the difference between the Falcons and Morons D.

I am guessing the Ravens are a small home favorite (2 – 3) and the total at 39. I don’t see an advantage in either of these lines, but let’s see what the final margins are. Ultimately, an important divisional game usually leads me to staying away.

“The Man” has the Morons giving 3 and the total at 41.5…this total looks a little high, but there is certainly enough other nuggets out there with greater value.

Dallas @ Skins

I actually heard a national “expert” compare Tony Romo to Brett Favre. Talk about jumping on a bandwagon. I don’t think one game makes him a hero, but he certainly looked good. The Skins meanwhile are coming off a bye week, but are likely going to be missing Moss…and Brunell and Portis are banged up. This can’t be good for a mid-tier offense facing the 4th best D. On the other side of the ball, the Skins have been struggling and Boys seem to be clicking with Romo after one game.

I am not jumping two feet first onto the Romo bandwagon, but I think Dallas should be about a 5 point favorite and the total in the low 40’s. I am very intrigued by the Boys as I think the Skins suck, but after a bye week, I would ultimately stay away from the line. The total might be an under play…the NFC East tends to play much more conservative against each other and Gibbs will want to pound the ball.

“The Man” has the Boys giving 3 and the total at 41. Again, this total looks a little high to me. They have had one game get in the 40’s in the last 3 years…but the over have hit in 5 of 7 games played by Dallas and 4 of 7 by the Skins…can’t go against that.

GB @ Bills

The pillow fight of the week will be taking place in Buffalo. Donald Driver thinks the Pack Attack is back and they can make a run. They come into this game on a two game winning streak…against Miami and AZ. Their 3 wins this year have come against teams with a combined 3 – 19 record. During these games, they have averaged over 30 points. However, they have also given up almost 21 points in each of these games. So, these trends looks like GB will beat up the bad teams and then lose to the good ones…where would you rank Buffalo? If you need help, maybe learning that their offense is near the bottom and the defense in the middle of the pack will convince you they suck. I haven’t even mentioned they are lead by “Just Punt”, who continues to struggle.

I am guessing GB is a small road favorite and the total in the mid-40’s. You all know by now that we don’t often play bad teams facing other bad teams…the over might be the call…each of GB’s 3 games against the bad teams have gone over. In addition, Woodson is listed as questionable…that can’t help a weak secondary.

“The Man” has the Bills giving 3 and the total at 40.5. I think the Pack should win the game, so I would take the points if someone had a gun to my head, but ultimately I would stay away from the line. I still like the over as GB will score in the high 20’s and that means it won’t need many points to reach this total.

Houston @ NYG

David Carr gets benched and Sage moves the offense. NYG meanwhile continues to roll doing whatever it needs to do to win. Last week’s game against TB is a typical example…get the lead and then pound the ball, play field position football, and force the other team to make a play. TB couldn’t do it. Does anyone out there have more faith in the Texans than the Bucs? After an impressive win over a beat up Jags team, the Texans laid an egg against the weak Titans.

NYG will be a huge favorite at home ranging from 10 – 12 points (or more). The total should be in the high 30’s. The G-men are very intriguing to me…but I would stay away from the total. G-men have won 4 straight against the spread and I am not about to go against that trend…let’s see what the final line is, but anything under 14 is a play.

“The Man” has the G-men giving 13 and the total at 43. The G-men have won 4 in a row against the spread and continue to beat up on teams at home. I don’t like the total, but I am riding the G train until it stops rolling.

KC @ St. Louis

Damon Huard has been fairly impressive other than the Pittsburgh debacle averaging over 30 points in their last 4 victories. LJ has been finding his stride, clearly being helped by Huard’s solid play. Their game plan will be to pound LJ against the 27th ranked rush D to keep the potent offense of the Rams on the sidelines. The Rams score almost 30 points per game at home as opposed to less than 20 on the road.

Ultimately, I think the Rams will be favored by about a TD and the total in the high 40’s. I think the line is a toss up. The over could be a play here depending on “The Man”…I would definitely go over anything lower than 45 and probably up to 50. There is no chance both teams don’t score in the high 20’s.

“The Man” has the Rams giving 2.5 and the total at 48…KC has gone over the last 5 games and the Rams have gone over in 3 of their last 4…I can’t go against these trends..can I GuruJoe? Stay away from the line.

Fins @ Bears

I am not getting off the Bears bandwagon until they give me a reason to. The Fins suck. They have lost to the likes of GB, NYJ, Houston and the Bills. They have the 29th ranked scoring offense facing the #1 defense…tough year for Nick and crew.

Bears will be favored by at least 14 and the total in the high 30’s. I am staying on the Bears bandwagon as long as the line is less than 14…if it is less than 17 then GuruJoe and I will have serious talks.

“The Man” has the Bear giving 13.5 and the total at 37.5. Miami has not beaten the spread once this year…I will never buck that trend. GuruJoe can’t even talk me out of this one…check back tomorrow for the official plays.

Aints @ Bucs

Well, we can still call them the Aints. I was ready to jump on the bandwagon, but it was one week too early. They were really hurt by two key turnovers created by a solid Baltimoron D. The Bucs meanwhile still can’t get the offense going. The Bucs got manhandled by a superior Giants team last week after two shocking wins against the Bungles and Eagles. TB has the worst scoring offense, but luckily has found their D. The Aints D exceeded most people’s expectations, but has faltered lately. They have given up an average of 25 points over the last 4 games. What better cure for a struggling D than the worst scoring offense?

I am guessing NO will be a small road favorite and the total around 40. The under could intrigue me depending on what “The Man” set it at.

“The Man” has the Aints giving 1 and the total at 38…too many other golden nuggets to waste any more energy on this crapshoot.

TN @ Jags

David Garrard in and Byron to the bench. The Jags D is still beaten up, but they managed to clip the Eagles wings last week after being embarrassed by the Texans. Will the real Jaguars please step forward? TN meanwhile is on a little roll winning 2 in a row scoring at least 25 in the two victories. Vince isn’t lighting it up, but he is not making huge mistakes and is making some plays with his legs. Is it possible these guys don’t suck that bad? NOOOO…they still suck. These two wins were against the Skins and Texans…a combined record of 4 – 10.

The Jags should be favored by about a TD and the total in the mid-30’s. I wouldn’t touch this game unless my only other choice was to attend a Boy George concert.

“The Man” has the Jags giving 9.5 and the total at 37.5…again stay away from this game…

MN @ SF

MN got pummeled on MNF. GuruJoe has nailed this team more often than Hef a Playboy bunny. He has said all season that these guys are mediocre. He tried to talk me into the MNF game last week, but I would not violate one of my rules of picking a MNF road favorite. SF meanwhile comes off their thumping by the Bears. It is hard to say which thumping is worse, but I would tend to go with the Vikes…at least the 49ers were 16 point underdogs.

I am guessing the Vikes are giving about 3 and the total around 37. I wouldn’t touch this game, but I would be on SF if I had to choose.

“The Man” has the Vikes giving 5 and the total at 43. This total looks high, but ultimately a stay away game for this Guru. I will say that I could easily see this being a trap game for the Vikes…a short week and then traveling west is usually not a good combination.

Cleve @ SD

The Brownies head to SD for a nice vacation…at least until Sunday afternoon. The Browns pulled off a win against the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets…thanks to a horrible call at the end of the game, which would have forced the game into OT. SD meanwhile laid the smack down on the Rams at home. Merriman decided to drop his appeal and will miss this game due to suspension. Phillips is questionable. Foley is out for the year…lots of LB’s out. Good thing the Browns are coming to town. They have scored more than 20 points once and that was against the hapless Raiders. They have not given up many points this year…ranking 10th in scoring D. Could they contain the Bolts powerful offense?

SD should be favored by about 2 TD’s and the total around 38. I can’t imagine betting against the Bolts at this point. I probably wouldn’t touch the total because who knows how many, if any, points the Brownies will score.

“The Man” has SD giving 12.5 and the total at 41. I am really liking the Bolts…the Browns win against the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets didn’t impress me.

Denver @ Pittsburgh

The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off two huge losses at Oakland and Atlanta. They have killed themselves this year with turnovers. Meanwhile, their great D tends to give up TD’s after these TO’s rather than holding them to FG’s. However, when the opposing teams have less than 100 yards of total offense, you should win the game. Denver meanwhile lost the battle of the horses by a length. Will Jake the Snake get revenge from last year’s AFC championship game?

Being in Pittsburgh, I know the Steelers are favored by about 2 and the total is around 36. I wouldn’t touch this game. If Big Ben doesn’t throw the INT’s and the special teams hand the ball to the other team as regularly as my wife’s monthly bitchy schedule, the Steelers could be 5 – 2…but they aren’t and haven’t proved they can avoid the costly TO’s. If they don’t make the mistakes, they will win this game…the question then is how many turnovers will they have.

“The Man” has the Steelers giving 2.5 and the total at 36.5. Stay away from this game…

Colts @ Pats

Here we go again. The Colts are involved in the game of the week and the preview of the AFC Championship game. The Pats are coming off an impressive win at MN. Their only loss is at home to Denver, whom the Colts just beat on the road. The transitive property of football means that the Colts should win. The Pats bring in the 8th best rushing attack against the worst rushing defense. The Colts bring in the second best offense to face the 3rd best scoring defense. Brady vs. Manning. Sweatshirt Bill is being hailed as a mastermind…can he muster up enough magic to stop this offense?

I am guessing the Pats are a small home favorite and the total around 47. I think this is a stay away game. Unlike last week where we said you don’t give Peyton points, this was against a team that hadn’t scored more than 20 points all year.

“The Man” has the Pats giving 3 and the total at 48…I still hate giving Peyton any points, but Sweatshirt Bill might be the guy who can do it…stay away and enjoy the other winnings.

Oakland @ Seattle

Seattle needs this game badly. This is the definition of must win. Seneca didn’t play bad after having a week to prepare, but the KC offense was just too much for the Seahawk D. Oakland meanwhile comes off a win against the Steelers in which they had less than 100 yards of total offense.

Seattle will be favored by about a TD and the total in the high 30’s. I think Seattle will win and probably cover anything less than a TD, but I can’t recommend anyone wager on Seneca without Shaun in the backfield.

“The Man” has Seattle giving 7.5 and the total at 37…I am guessing ESPN was more excited about Moss vs. Shaun at the beginning of the year…can’t touch this game with Seneca playing.

LOTION'S PRINCIPLE - THE 80-20 RULE

2006-11-04T10:20:00.000-05:00

In 1906, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto created a mathematical formula to describe the unequal distribution of wealth in his country, observing that 20% percent of the people owned 80% percent of the wealth. In the late 1940s, Dr. Joseph M. Juran inaccurately attributed the 80/20 Rule to Pareto, calling it Pareto's Principle. While it may be misnamed, Pareto's Principle or Pareto's Law as it is sometimes called, can be a very effective tool to help you manage effectively.

Maybe Dr. Juran should have called it Lotion's Principle. Lotion's clients have 80% of the wealth. Lotion is the hottest prognosticator in America at 8-2. Vegas fears Lotion. Vegas wants you to bet more games, not less. The more games you bet, the better chance you have of losing......that is why there is this "thang" called Juice. Lotion gives you one game a week, the most efficient way of making money. Lotion's Principle, the 80/20 Rule, should serve as a daily reminder to focus 80 percent of your time and energy on the 20 percent of the work that is really important. Don't just "work/bet smart", work/bet smart on the right things......Lotion's games. As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make $$$:

LSU Under 45

LSU has given up a TOTAL of 20 points in the last 4 GAMES!!!! That is sick!!! Hence the reason they give up 8.3 ppg. That is an amazing stat considering they play in America's toughest conference. Vols QB Ainge is a gametime decision with an ankle. He won't miss this one unless he is in a wheelchair. He will not be 100%. The Tigers smell blood. LSU puts more pressure on the QB than any team in America. You better be able to move against the Tiger pass rush if you want to have a chance. This is probably the reason LSU is favored by 3 points in Knoxville. It is going to be a long day for Ainge and Vols offense. That is going to put pressure on the Vol defense to keep this game close. Look for an inspired performance by that Vol D....just like they did against Cal earlier in the year. They will realize early it will be on their shoulders to keep their team in the game. Big games in the SEC often revert back to defensive struggles. This year......LSU vs. Florida was 23-10, LSU vs. Aurburn was 7-3, Tennessee vs. Alabama was 16-13 and Tennessee vs. Florida was 21-20. This game will be a "slobberknocker" as well. "Rocky top, you'll always be..Home sweet home to me...Good ole Rocky Top...Rocky top Tennessee!!"

Kansan weighs in for ND vs. UNC

2006-11-03T23:57:00.000-05:00

Notre Dame comes off a fairly nice win against the Middies of the Naval Academy (as an Army guy, I have a different name for them, but I will keep this post G rated). I don’t know why it was so hard to defend the pitch man, but by the second half the Irish D had figured it out and the Irish offense was on all cylinders for most of the afternoon. Now, the Irish face a UNC club with one win under their belt and a lame duck coach at the House that Rockne built. I like ND’s chances.

As my buddy Matt Jones (aka Jones Puss) recently indicated, UNC does have some talent. ND is not facing a club like Navy that wins based off of discipline, guts and hard work, despite having barely a scintilla of talent on. UNC has some athletes, they just don’t use them very well (e.g. Willie Parker). UNC lost a close one last week to Wake Forrest – a 7-1 team with a shot at going to the ACC Championship team. If ND doesn’t show up, they could have another close game which would hurt our BCS standings.

Based on the few reports that I’ve read regarding this week’s preparation, I think Charlie has our boys in the right frame of mind. I look for ND’s offense to have a very good, if not great game. UNC ranks in the bottom tier in almost every defensive statistic. They rank as 90 or lower in defensive yards given up, points allowed, and passing defense. I think UNC comes out spirited, but once ND gets a lead on them they simply cannot have the confidence to think that this defense will stop us. ND needs to get the ball first and march right down the field and score. If that happens, this game may be over at half time.

I like how the Irish Defense has come along. I say this based solely on my preseason expectations. In five years if ND puts a defense like this on the field, I will be extremely disappointed. Ty did a good job of leaving the cupboard bear at numerous positions and he simply didn’t recruit enough defensive stars. The senior class does have a nice group of defensive linemen and Zibby is up to ND’s standards.

ND should win handily and I think UNC scores some garbage points at the end to make it look closer than it really was.

Prediction:
ND: 42 UNC: 17

Week 9 Games of the Week

2006-11-03T14:04:00.000-05:00

Cincy (4-3)at Balt (5-2)
The mighty defense of the Ravens with the revitalized offense under Billick’s play calling hosts the high-powered Cincy Offense. With Pittsburgh 3 games behind Balt, this game appears to be one that will tell the true class of the division. The Gurus have not been impressed with the 5-2, division leading Ravens due to their inept offense. Let’s not be fooled by the 35 points last week either, 14 were scored by the Defense. We have also not been too impressed with Cincy in general. Their defense is average at 21st and their high powered offense is struggling through OL injuries and only ranks 18th overall. Meanwhile, Balt is solid on D (although they rank 16th vs the pass) but inept at 26th ranking on total O. Goes without saying that this game is a big step toward winning the division for each team.

Dallas (4-3) at Wash (2-5)
Washington has faded in their first 7 games after being touted as one of the teams that can make a run at the NFC Beast. They rank 14th on Offense and 25th on Defense, 30th vs the Pass. Meanwhile Dallas has been up and down all year and comes off an up game while Washington is off a bye after getting bludgeoned by Peyton. Will Washington show up and all? Who really cares because they aren’t what makes this a game of the week. This is the next episode of “Will the Real Dallas Please Stand Up?” and the public is just dying to see…..can Romo do it two weeks in a row? Does this OL just like blocking for him more? Is the D rejuvenated by the spark on O? This and the answer to the questions “can TO be happy 2 weeks in a row?” and “who will bill kiss next?” all in this week’s episode.

KC (4-3) at STL (4-3)
Two 4-3 teams that are also tough to figure out. STL got thumped at SD as I predicted, KC thumped a beaten up Seattle team. Both teams seem to win the games they should and lose handily in those they shouldn’t….what better than to play each other and decide who is more mediocre. The interesting part of these teams are they both are vying for playoff spots. If Seattle stays beat up, STL can win that division but they’ll need to win the home games they are expected to win. Meanwhile, KC is right there in the AFC fighting for wild cards but with Den, Balt, Jax, Sd still on the schedule they need to steal every victory they can.

NO (5-2) at TB (2-5)
I don’t have too much to say here. NO was 5-1 and got beat by Balt but they beat themselves with 14 points on Defensive TDs so hard to jump off the bandwagon too soon. TB is struggling on Offense but has been pretty stingy on D lately. The only interest in this game is to see whether NO can go on the road into TB and put up some big numbers and win this game. If they do it says little, because they should…..if they don’t you’ll see more people jumping off the NO wagon and onto the Vick and ATL wagon (which is filling up so get your tickets if you want to ride).

Den (5-2) at Pitt (2-5)
Not exactly what we expected when we learnec Denver was coming to town for the AFC Championship rematch. Nobody expected a 2-5 defending Super Bowl Champion Steeler team. No surprise that Den finally woke up out of its offensive slump last week vs the 32nd ranked Indy Run D. The real story of this team is the defense that ranks 2nd in scoring. Pittsburgh somehow has the 10th ranked offense and 7th ranked passing O. We’ve been saying it for weeks, this Steeler team has a lot of talent and just makes too many mistakes….HOWEVER, perhaps there are deeper issues. Perhaps an inconsistent run game is making the Steelers pass more and as a result Ben is showing his true colors. Pittsburgh has to win this game to salvage an attempt at the season and Denver has revenge on its mind. I expect the Pittsburgh D to show up pissed off again but the question will be the Steelers O vs the Den D.

Indy (7-0) at NE (6-1)
Game of the week….Primetime….Peyton with his stats vs Tom and his rings. Indy ranks 2nd in overall offense, 1st in passing while NE ranks 23rd vs the Pass. NE ranks 8th running the ball and Indy ranks dead last stopping the run. The game will be in NE on a chilly November evening. This game has the makings of a classic and a potential AFC Championship rematch. This game could very well decide home field in that championship game. NE has been Peyton’s nemesis until last year but Belicheck is the master (despite early season rumors of his demise). This game needs no hype from the Gurus so just enjoy.

Week 8: The week that was

2006-11-01T21:37:00.000-05:00

Gurus posted a +1 this week. We talked ourselves out of KC when we heard some bad news and that was going to be a 4 star pick but we can’t discuss what we didn’t do. Here’s a look at the games this week:

GB 31 - AZ 14
"It's not over," Driver said. "We're still in the hunt. I think a lot of people kind of ruled us out. But the Pack is back."

Easy Donald, easy pal…..3-4, wins vs Det, Miami and AZ does not constitute “back” unless your desintation is simply knocking at the door to the kitchen out of the cellar as opposed to the hot tub in the master bedroom with the hot MILF of the house. The gurus really loved this over and it hit by a half point. We figured two bad teams would beat each other up and AZ was without Clancy and Dansby. Problem is AZ is really bad on BOTH sides of the ball so the over was barely hit. This guru is glad to see Favre playing well and Green finally back but lets see what comes with stiffer competition.

ATL 29 – Cincy 27
Vick 20/28, 295, 3 TDs and 55 more running. He spread the ball around to a lot of WRs that have been tagged as overrated and underperforming. This is two weeks in a row now for Vick so that’s impressive. The troubling thing is they have given up a lot of points on the defensive side two weeks in a row and their pass defense seems to get picked apart a bit. They (once again) held the opposition to under 100 yards rushing. For Cincy, this is a disappointing home loss and talks continue that perhaps they are simply overrated. CJ got his score but didn’t show up when it mattered.

Balt 35 – NO 22
The gurus really considered NO but ultimately got scared by the Balt D and we called that. Balt scored 14 points on D, scored another 7 off a turnover on the NO 40ish and kept NO out of the end zone by intercepting an errant Bush halfback option. That’s 4 game-changing TOs. McNair finally seemed to have some rhythm but I won’t be sold until I see them do it when they aren’t bailed out by the D. NO could have been in this game without the TO’s and are still the darling team of the country.

TN 28 – Hous 22
Carr got benched, perhaps we are seeing his last chance in Hous. Sage actually seemed to play well against a bad TN D. TN played pretty horrible but did enough to win and I’m not commenting anymore.

Jax 13 – Philly 6
McNabb had been averaging over 300 yards per game until they met Jax. Jax held him 161 yards and the offense to only 85 yards rushing including 37 on 5 rushes from McNabb. The Philly O simply couldn’t get anything moving vs the Jax D. I guess this is what happens when you meet the Jax D off a bye after they lose to Hous…..bad timing Philly. Meanwhile, there is a QB controversy in Jax because Garrard passed for 87 yards. Let me repeat that…..a QB controversy because some guy passed for 87 yards. I’ve been saying it for a few weeks and I’m saying it again….Philly’s D is a sieve….Jax ran for over 200 yards and were able to control the game.

KC 35 – Seattle 28
Don’t look now but KC is in the playoff hunt. I was real down on them last week figuring they would get killed by SD and then they got Seattle while their down. They can run the ball let’s not lose sight of the fact that they gave up 28 points to a Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris led Offense. I think they play .500 ball beating bad teams and losing to good ones. Seattle played its heart out with their second team so you have to give them credit but they are struggling and need to try and steal a few wins while getting healthy….otherwise they could be watching the post season at home.

Chic 41 – SF 10
Ummmm….just as the gurus called it. Our only mistake here was NOT making this a 10 star play. Chic plays great at home and SF sucks.

NYG 17 – TB 3
TB did exactly what we expected on O….NOTHING. Cadillac rushed for 20 yards and Grad threw for 139. The surprise here is that the Giants only scored 17 with little over 100 yards rushing as a team and only 154 yards for Eli. The gurus got the cover but we figured 28 points would have been easy. The real story might be that the TB D is playing pretty well.

SD 38 – STL 24
GuruJoe called this one…..this is a game that could get out of hand and it did. SD can pounce on you quick and get the game out of control before you know it. The KC game was a fluke because early mistakes put SD in a hole and got them off their game. This week SD pounced with LT running hard early and ending with 183 yards and 2 TDs with another 57 yards and 1TD receiving. STL did just what they do…..passed the ball all around, played tough on O and lost to a good team that outscored them. Good think Seattle is struggling.

Indy 34 – Den 31
Another call for the gurus. What did this guru say in his point about this game???? Indy doesn’t stop the run and they didn’t here either. Teams love to run against them to try and control the tempo and the clock. Denver ran for over 200 yards but what else did this guru say??? DOESN’T MATTER……if you give Peyton 1 min and a chance to move the ball down field to win the game he will and he did. Denver’s Offense finally woke up against a Defense most teams wake up against but gave Peyton some time.

Clev 20 – NYJ 13
The gurus couldn’t believe Clev was giving anyone points but we don’t like betting one bad team vs another unless its an over play because the D’s are so bad. Ultimately this was a game of two teams that can’t stop the run and was too scary to make a play. Turns out Clev was the team able to run the ball and win the game. Perhaps the Jets don’t have as much heart as we thought.

Oak 20 – Pitt 13
OH BOY….what can the guru’s say here. Our Defending Super Bowl Champions give up 98 yards of total offense and lose the game. We gave up nearly as many yards in unsportsmanlike conduct penalties as we did in offense. Steelers are undisciplined and making huge mistakes on Offense. This game lies on the shoulders of Ben. Is he suffering effects of all he has gone through or just not that good? Is he being asked to do too much because the run game is inconsistent? Lots of possibilities but the Steelers are obviously hurting. Oak still sucks but somehow they have the #1 Ranked Pass D.

Dallas 35 – Car 14
Another miss by the gurus. Car comes out completely flat on primetime Sunday after a loss in cincy. Carolina’s run game doesn’t seem to have much punch. Keyshawn and Steve Smith both missed some catches they should have made and killed drives and the Def put little pressure on Romo which seems amazing given the performance of the Dallas OL to date. Dallas came out with typical Parcells magic. Not sure you should ever bet against Parcells after a bad loss. Not sure if Romo is the answer but they looked good and TO is engaged. Perhaps the OL and rest of the team simply gave up on Drew.

NE 31 – Minny 7
I tried to talk gurubob into NE. I still maintain Minny is mediocre and they helped make my case. NE looked invincible as Brady spread the ball around at will. Think this guru doesn’t wish the Steelers took a closer look at the rookie Maroney. That kid seems to be a player. NE vs. Indy this week….gotta love that.

Week 8: The Halfway Point and Gurus are Making Coin

2006-10-29T11:14:00.000-05:00

Ladies (ok well not many of you reading....unless we count those of you dressing in your woman's skirts and pumps)....SO, Gentlemen and Crossdressers its basically halfway through the season and the gurus are on a roll. We are seeing the trends and making the picks accordingly. GuruBob had A LOT of intrigue in his post earlier this week and I responded accordingly. We had much deliberation and post the following…..the biggest card to date:

Carolina 3 stars – Tony meet Julius. Carolina playing Sunday night primetime after a loss in cincy. If NO and/or ATL win this game becomes even more pressing for them meanwhile the Boys are struggling and Tony is NOT the answer.

Pitt 3 stars – Pitt pummels bad teams after a bad loss. They are in desperation mode meanwhile Oak simply doesn’t care. I

ndy 2 stars – If you are spotting Peyton points a play needs to be made. Colts O is too good and Denver’s is too bad to spot points.

NYG 3 Stars – the TB rookie has to leave the comfort of the FL sun for a cold, blistery NY day. Giants have way too many weapons and the D has played better the last couple games. Nuff said.

Chi 2 stars – Chicago scores close to 40 at home and gives up only 7. That difference there is 2x the line. This spread should be 24 then I might be concerned with a backdoor cover.

The Gurus were going to post KC as a 4 star pick but saw that Huard may not play. Can’t put coin down on Croyle vs Wallace but Seattle isn’t good right now with all their injuries so if Huard seems healthy this would be a consideration to be added.

Yes.........Lotion is Human

2006-10-27T23:02:00.000-04:00

Lotion disappointed in last weeks "free" play. The paying customers are 8-1 but Lotion dropped to 7-2 on this forum. Lotion will have it raining dolla bills this weekend more than it is on the east coast. It came down to 3 plays this weekend. Lotion was ready to pull the trigger on Duke catching 10 at home vs. Vandy. Duke has been playing well and Vandy is living off the upset at Athens. Major line value here but Lotion just cant justify hard earned cheese on the Dukies. The second "near miss" was Notre Dame. Lotion thinks the Irish are due for a big win. However, cant justify playing the most overrated team in America with the expected weather conditions. Notre Dame gives up more yards per play than they gain!!! That is pathetic.....especially for a ranked team. Lotion still laughing his ass off by the poster on this board who said something to the effect that Notre Dame would be legitimate National Champion contenders if the offense was playing like it was last year. Reality check - the offense could be playing 10 TIMES better than last year and this team would get run out of the gym by at LEAST a half dozen teams. The defense stinks.....especially against quality teams. The offense has been overrated since the day Weis stepped on campus. They played 2 defenses last year.....Michigan and Ohio State. ND did NOTHING against either team. They played 2 defenses this year.....Michigan and UCLA. Again, NOTHING. Charlie Weis is an offensive genius yet he cant figure out how to move the ball against good defenses????? What is he getting paid for??? Enough about my overrated Irish. Time for this week's pick. Lotion ready to get back on track and push the record to 8-2. As Always, Stick with the Program.....it is the ONLY way to make cheese:

Auburn Over 37.5:

Not much analysis needed here. Auburn averages 27.5 ppg but has averaged 37 the last 2 games. Ole Miss only averages 13 ppg but scored 25 last week. This fits one of Lotion's top prognostication models......5 week mathematical low total with the home team the low point provider. Ole Miss will get some points.....the home team almost always does. The Rebs will also give up a bundle as they give up nearly 370 yards of offense per game. The Auburn defense, albeit stout with a 12 ppg defense, has given up some points recently. Expect 2 scores, in some format, by Ole Miss and that will be all we need to go over the total and push Lotion to 8-2!!!!

This just in from the Big Kansan - ND Prediction

2006-10-27T16:04:00.000-04:00

Well, my Dell is on the fritz and in the shop (thankfully, I got that extended warranty!), so you guys are getting a brief prediction this week (by the way Bob, good job on the midseason report card).
Personally, I would love to see ND come out blasting and throwing the rock all over the yard. Navy simply does not have the athletes to cover Rhema, Shark or Carlson. Unfortunately, I think Charlie is so frustrated with the running game (rightfully so) that he will insist on establishing the running game and continue to call runs. I think ND does an okay job running the ball on Saturday, but I think Navy sells out against the run and hopes for mercy from the Irish. I think the Stanford game is fairly good barometer for this game. ND plays it close to the vest and wins, but it looks ugly. Navy's ground game will suck a lot of clock and with the change in rules regarding running the clock on change of possession, etc., look for one of the fastest games in ND history (minus commercials). Unfortunately for Navy, their starting senior QB had a season ending injury and the sophomore backup got blitzed by Rutgers. That bodes well for the Irish. I think the ND defense has definitely improved as a unit over last year's version. If we had the same offense we had last year, I think this club would be a legitimate national title contender. The offense has been very disappointing. The Irish will score about 10 pts less than they should this week.

ND - 31
Navy - 17

Week 8: GuruJoe's Thoughts

2006-10-27T13:53:00.000-04:00

WOW……GuruBob posts a lot of intrigue this week and I can’t say I blame him. Last week we made out pretty good and I have to take blame for talking GuruBob into the SD debacle but that was an exception my friends…..see my posting below but SD was taken out of their game plan by the time the KC faithful drank enough beer to make their faces match their jerseys and jackets. A lot for you all to ponder this week so take it in and let us know your thoughts.

SF @ Chicago (-16)

SF ranks 28th in Total Defense and dead last in Scoring D. Chicago ranks 14th in total offense but Grossman struggled in his last game on Monday night in AZ throwing 4 INTs and losing 2 fumbles yet they still one with their D. At home they are giving up 7 points a game and scoring close to 40…..do the math. SF is tied for 5th worst TO ratio while Chicago is tied for 3rd best. My only concern with this game is the level of competition faced by Chicago to date: GB, Det, Minny (which they squeaked out), Seattle, Buff, AZ……one BIG win vs Seattle and a bunch of nothings there. Good thing SF is equally horrible. For those of you struggling with that Math I mentioned: 40 – 7 equals 33 and the line is 16???

Hot Lanta @ Bungles over 43.5

Last week this was a complete oversight by this guru. GuruBob mentioned the over in the Pitt/ATL game and I didn’t see it until after the post but I had the bet in myself on a parlay because I thought it was WAAYYY low. Pittsburgh shredded the ATL defense with the passing game….both Ben and Batch were able to connect on a lot of balls. Meanwhile, Vick appeared out of nowhere with his own passing game. CJ is mouthing off again and predicts two scores….did he get healthy? Is there something in the gameplan we should know about? We’ve been talking trash on the Cincy D for weeks but they held Carolina to 14 points last week…..personally I just think there were pissed because of the loss to TB the week before. More troubling regarding the over is their mighty offense has scored 17, 13, and 13 in the last three weeks due to injuries on their OL. These should be two offenses that put up points but that Cincy OL makes me nervous.

AZ @ GB over 44.5

Ahman finally got moving last week vs Miami, Driver is catching balls for Favre with nobody else on the field and Favre is still chucking it around. LB Dansby and DT Clancy likely won’t play so that helps GB’s case for scoring. GB ranks dead last in pass Defense which isn’t good against a team that can ONLY pass. I would love this a lot more if Fitzgerald was playing but I still can’t see how these guys don’t sling it around all day. AZ won’t be able to run the ball because they simply can’t which means Leinart will be throwing the ball to Boldin all day and Favre is going to have to keep up. I agree 44.5 seems low, could Lambeau mystique and weather play a factor?

Seattle @ KC (-6)

KC showed a valiant effort last week vs SD and I completely was fooled by this game. I never expected them to keep it close….perhaps Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play in football. Seneca Wallace is better served as a gimic QB/WR type guy than a pure QB at this point. Morris has done nothing to showcase his talents in replacing Shaun and Engram is out. I think Seneca is in for a long day.

Baltimorons @ Aints (-2)

I’m close to the buying a ticket on this bandwagon but the Balt D might scare me just enough. I do believe that Brees has this team playing to win and they are somehow in the driver’s seat of their division. They are filled with weapons on O and are playing very good D (especially at home). Meanwhile, Balt can’t move the ball to save their lives. They simply stink. McNair, Ogden, Mason, Lewis…..they all look old and feeble. Can the Morons come back from their bye week with some form of Offensive rhythm? Just not sure I see it….I’m becoming more and more a believer that the Morons aren’t any good and an equal believer in the Aints. I think the Aints pull off a lowscoring affair here but ultimately I see value elsewhere and don’t like the idea of an evolving offense vs a very good D. Won’t be surprised to be eating my words on Monday.

TB @ NYG (-9)

Gradkowski has had the benefit of two home games in a row vs Cincy and Philly…..not exactly stellar D’s as has been written here on several occasions. He has to go to NYC and play the Giants after their big MNF win to claim the division lead??? The Giants saw and thanked the Bucs for knocking off Philly last week and they sure aren’t going to fall victim of that. I agree with Gurubob that Grad will be running for his life, the running game hasn’t provide much support to date and the Gmen simply have too many weapons on O. The only counter argument would be whether the Gmen are due for a letdown game? Michael Irvin has called Tiki a distraction……I think that’s ridiculous, the only distraction is all the media talking about Irvin’s comments….not Tiki himself. TB hasn’t been impressive but they are squeaking by with wins.

Jax @ Philly (-6.5) over 42.5

Do we have a potential parlay??? McNabb scores close to 30 a game and the Jags are beat up on D. The question is who will be their QB and what will they do vs. the Philly D. I’m not too impressed with Philly’s shutdown of the impotent TB offense last week so Jags might only need to put of 14 if McNabb gets his 30. The line scares me a bit because Philly could give up points and Jax is completely Jekyll and Hyde. Who shows up this week to score or not score.

Rams (+9.5) @ Bolts

STL has been hitting their stride on O and they lead the league in turnover ratio but they rank 24th in total D and 23rd in run D which is not good news vs the Bolts. The Bolts let one slip away last week in KC but a closer look shows that KC scored two first quarter TDs off SD turnover in the SD zone. KC went 1 play for 11 yards and 3 plays for 32 yards. I called a Bolts victory and cover last week but two mistakes took SD out of their game plan of running the ball before the game even got stared. STL has found more of a rhythm lately but this has been vs Seattle at home (a game they are always up for) then GB and Det. I originally liked this pick but I’m afraid of the Bolts high powered O, at home, coming off a tough loss. SD scores an average of 31 at home and gives up only 10. I can see a 31-21 type game…..or worse…..it’s intriguing but this is one I can see going either way.

NYJ (+1.5) @ Cleveland

I’m with GuruBob here……the Browns suck. They shouldn’t be giving anyone points. The Jets are playing with heart, gaining confidence are winning the games they are supposed to win. Jets rank 20th in total offense while Clev ranks dead last. Jets rank 30th in total D while Clev ranks 22nd. Other than the 0-41 drubbing at Jax, the Jets have been in every game this year. Clev hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any game other than 24 vs the inept Oak. Winslow is showing he’s the real deal at TE, Edwards is a threat if he’s actually healthy. Pennington and Coles are on fire but need some assistance around them. Leon Washington came out of nowhere last week to finally provide a spark running the ball. Jets are winning and based on record could vie for a wildcard. I think their desire to believe this should result in another win but both teams aren’t that good and I think this is a game Clev could pull out a win at home so I’d stay away.

Indi (+3) @ Denver

Denver ranks 4th in total D but 1st in Scoring D which really matters. Indy is 3rd in total offense and 2nd in passing offense…..they don’t run the ball real well. Den is 4th in rushing offense and 30th in passing while Indy is 3rd in passing D and 31st in running. Seems to be a good matchup for Denver right? Their strength of their O lines up with the weakness of Indy’s D. The only way you beat Indy is by controlling the clock and keeping Peyton out of the endzone, that means you run the ball often. Indy can’t run so they pass a lot and strike quick meaning the D is on the field a lot. The D gets worn down AND the opposing O WANTS to run the ball in order to keep Peyton on the sidelines. Problem is Peyton strikes so quick that doesn’t matter how long you keep him off the field. Den ranks 31st in scoring O so Peyton shouldn’t have to score much. Colts just don’t lose games so why spot them 3 to start to an Offense that can’t score?

Pitt (-9) @ Oakland

Easy….what does Pitt do to horrible teams after embarrassing and heartbreaking losses which they should have and easily could have one??? They get pissed and they dismantle their opponent. Lamont Jordan is questionable with a back problem. I don’t care if it’s Ben or Charlie, both have been clicking. Nobody is more ashamed of the Defending Super Bowl Champions than these two gurus but when you look at their games the Steelers could be 5-1 if they weren’t making the horrible, uncalled for mistakes. If you think I’m being a homer go check the tape. Only the Jax loss was one we truly were beaten…..the rest we handed over. I don’t like Oak’s chances. The ONLY issue is if Walter pulls a C-pep and just chucks the ball to Moss all game and gets lucky 3-4 times for the backdoor cover. I don’t think he’ll have time.

Dallas @ Carolina (-5.5)

Dallas OL is horrible. The mobile, young, unproven, never started a game in his life and has been the backup to Henson, Carter, and Testaverde is clearly the answer. The owner says the org is taking a step backward and talks in Dallas about a “special” team have ceased. Carolina needs to win to maintain any chance of remaining a Super Bowl darling pick. The Gurus got a push with Carolina last week and can’t figure for their lives why they couldn’t score on Cincy. We thought they were back with Steve Smith but something has gone awry last week. Carolina is mediocre in every category on the O and D sides of the ball. Dallas has been good but has killed themselves with mistakes and lack of protection for their QB. I hate betting against a backed up Tuna team getting points of an embarrassing loss but I also hate the thought of what might becomes of Romo this week. I think this team is starting to give up based on a perception of complete chaos by the coaches and front office.

When will the champagne pop?

2006-10-26T20:23:00.000-04:00

The Gurus popped their champagne as they went to a solid positive 6.8 stars on the year. The 1972 Fins team will definitely have to wait at least one more week, but the Colts are in danger. I am in Chicago and heading to Baltimore to watch my Irish beat the Midshipmen. However, I have had plenty of time to study the necessary trends, stats and games. The benefit for all of you is that all the selections should be decided by tomorrow and give you plenty of time to mull it all over.

Have faith and don't worry about the wait, because upon you now are the picks for week 8:

SF @ Chicago

The 49ers get a week off to think about the demolition that is about to come their way. Chicago survived the Cards on the road the week before the bye and lost their starting safety. Lucky for them they have had two weeks to get their new safety ready for this week. SF comes to town with the 28th ranked D giving up a whopping 362 yards / game. Rex should have some fun this week.

I will take Chicago favored by anything less than 17. I don't see this one staying close at all. Last year Kyle Orton lead the Bears to a 17 - 9 win at home against the 49ers. Rex should get the Bears side of this total to at least 31...who did the 49ers piss off to get invited back to Soldier Field. I am guessing the total will be in the high 30's. I don't think you can play the total because who knows if SF will score...

"The Man" has the Bears giving 16 and the total at 42...I really like Chicago here...GuruJoe, can you talk me out of it. I wouldn't touch the total as the Bears D might score 21 themselves.

Hot Lanta @ Bungles

Cinci impressed me with their victory last week against the other cats...their D has shown up for two weeks in a row after being called soft on this site as well as many others. Maybe all those injuries are giving hungrier players a chance to play. Hot Lanta comes off a victory against my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. It was an entertaining game until OT...coming from a die hard Steeler fan's perspective. Atlanta's lines on both sides of the ball are beat up...Lehr is suspended...Abraham is out...and the list goes on. These two teams have the 19th and 20th ranked D's. Atlanta comes to town with the 6th best offense and Vick showing that maybe he can be effective passing as well as running.

Cinci will be favored by about 6 and the total around 43. The over could be an interesting play with two offenses that should be able to move the ball. I would probably stay away from the line unless it is out of whack.

"The Man" has the Bungles favored by 3.5 and the total at 43.5. The line seems low, but would ultimately stay away. The over is still interesting to me.

AZ @ GB

I would rather watch an all night marathon of Gidget than this game. Both these teams stink. Both teams have defenses in the bottom 10, with GB being dead last. The only redeeming factor about this game is that their should be points scored as neither defense could stop a run away unicycle with a flat tire.

Your guess is as good as mine on the line...I would guess GB as small home favorites. The total should be in the mid-40's. GuruJoe is there any chance you would look deeper at this total. Anyone playing the line needs to call their therapist now.

"The Man" has GB giving 4 and the total at 44.5...GuruJoe, what do you think of this total...I can't see these guys not scoring at will on each other...but I hate touching games with two bad teams...the problem is their D's are bad their O's aren't too bad.

Houston @ TN

And you thought the previous game was bad. Houston had an impressive win against a beat up Jags team. TN is coming off a bye and win against the Skins.

I am guessing Houston will be favored by about 6, which will be absurd as they shouldn't be giving anyone 6 points. The total should be in the low 40's...I wouldn't touch this game unless I hit the PowerBall on Saturday and this was the only game I could watch. Who knows how this pillow fight will end?

"The Man" has Houston giving 3.5 and the total at 42...good luck to anyone who wants to touch this one...

Seattle @ KC

Both Super Bowl teams from a year ago are struggling and may not make the playoffs. Take the starting QB and MVP RB off any team and they will struggle. Last week, GuruJoe talked me into the Bolts and the Chiefs prevailed. Damon Huard has been playing solid as is evidenced by his 5th overall QB rating (not counting Batch and Boller). I can't see Seneca Wallace doing it in this hostile environment. Last week he got thrown into the fire and didn't look so great (14/25 for 134 yards and 2 INT's. Maurice Morris meanwhile could only manage 47 yards with no Hasselbeck to provide a passing threat.

This game is very big for both teams as they need to keep pace in their respective divisions and wild card races. The Chiefs should be favored by about 6 and the total around 35. Depending on the final line, I might be jumping on the Damon Huard bandwagon.

"The Man" has the Chiefs giving 6 and the total at 38.5. I really like the Chiefs...am I nuts betting on a team that lost by 30+ points to a 2 - 4 teams two weeks ago? Seneca Wallace and no Shaun...how can they keep it close?

Baltimorons @ Aints

I don't think I have many weeks left being able to call the team in NO the Aints. Both teams come off their bye weeks. McNair has the boot off his head and looks to start. Jamal is showing his age as is Jonathan Ogden. The D, however, has been great. NO has also found out they have a D...they rank 9th overall and play inspired at home. You can tell this team wants to win for the people of NO. Brees has been playing solid...Deuce and Reggie are proving to be a formidable tandem...and the young WR's, we don't include Horn in the young category, are making plays.

I am finally jumping on the bandwagon. NO should be favored by about 5 and the total in the mid 30's. I really don't like this game at all...but NO is intriguing to me. Baltimore has only beaten SD and lost to Carolina and Denver...all their other wins are against bad teams. NO has lost to Carolina in a close game and beat Philly and Atlanta. Let's see what the final lines are here.

"The Man" has the Aints giving 2 and the total at 37. I would stay away from the total for sure, but NO is still sticking out to me...I thought this would be over a FG game...Vegas just hasn't gotten on the bandwagon yet...should we?

TB @ NYG

Did you see those Dallas QB's running for their lives? I have been on the Gradkowski bandwagon, but I would not want to be a rookie QB going into the Meadowlands with that offensive line. The only good thing is that the G-men are beat up...Arrington is gone for the season...Emmons replaces him after hurting his pectoral muscle...Osi is likely out...Tuck is also questionable and very well might not play. The G-men's high powered offense might be tested against the Bucs D...the Bucs D is climbing in the rankings as they have reached the top 15 for the first time this year. They held the Eagles #1 offense to 21 points and won on a miracle 62 yard FG.

The G-men should be favored by at least a TD and it could be close to 10. The total should be in the low 40's. If the line is less than 10, then the G-men are intriguing to me and the over could be interesting as well...let's check it out first.

"The Man" has the G-men giving 9 and the total at 41...I haven't changed my mind...both are still intriguing to me. The total is less intriguing to me than the G-men.

Jax @ Philly

The Jags keep getting beat up...and by the Texans. Would anyone have guessed I would have ever said that? The Jags are really hurt on D...Byron needs his linemen from Marshall to come and carry him around and get his ankle healthy. The Jags very well could put Garrard in at QB this week. Philly meanwhile comes home from two heartbreaking losses at NO and TB. They are starting to get healthy. McNabb made two huge mistakes that cost his team the game...that doesn't happen often.

This is a huge game for both teams as the loser digs themselves a bigger hole for playoff contention. I would put the Eagles at a 6 point favorite and the total around 44. I really like the Eagles if Garrard gets his first start and the over might be interesting. If Houston can score 30 on that beat up D, then Philly will have no problem scoring.

"The Man" has Eagles giving 6.5 and the total at 42.5. Need to wait and see who starts, but if Byron doesn't start, then you have to jump on the Eagles...right?

Rams @ Bolts

The Rams travel to SD after their bye week. They are almost at 100%. Steven Jackson is running like a stud and Bulger is slinging all around ranking 3rd in passer rating and 4th in yards/game. Do you think all that Linehan talk about running the ball was fooling the rest of the league? The Bolts meanwhile are down two LB's and soon will lose the "best defensive player in the league"...on steroids. Rivers continues to impress and of course LT is great. The Bolts still have the #1 ranked D and the Rams are in the bottom third.

This game will be interesting. The Rams O is clicking and the D doesn't exist. The Bolts D and O are solid. SD should be favored by about 6 and the total in the high 30's. The over could be the play here...SD will score on these guys and one would presume the 8th ranked offense should score some as well.

"The Man" has SD giving 9.5 and the total at 45.5...wow!!! Did Vegas watch the Chiefs game last week? I can't see them giving a very good team 9.5 points. The total seems way too high, but I was on the over so now it is stay away...

NYJ @ Cleveland

I bet you thought you were going to see a pillow fight comment on this game huh? Well, GuruJoe said in his J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets write-up before the year that their weak schedule could surprise some people. The key to their 4 - 3 season thus far is that they have won every game that they should have won. Unfortunately, they don't seem to be able to steal any games they should not win. Guess what? Cleveland sucks. They should win this game and I don't see them losing it. The only concern I have is they are 28th against the run.

The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 7 and the total in the mid 30's...I can't believe I am saying this, but I might have to go with the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets...am I nuts?

"The Man" has the Browns giving 1.5 and the total at 38...the total looks right, but maybe a little high. Can someone please explain to me how the Browns are giving anyone points? Oh boy...

Indi @ Denver

Clearly the game of the week on a slate of several good games. The irrestible force meets the immovable object. Colts high powered O against the #1 scoring D in the league. Wow!!! Peyton looked great against the Skins last week and the running game is starting to gain some traction. Denver has been awesome on D, but calling them mediocre on O would be a huge compliment. Plummer has done nothing all year. The problem is that Denver likes to run...and Indi can't stop the run...ranking 31st.

I am guessing the Colts are small road favorites and the total in the low 40's. I hate these types of games on the line. The under might be the call depending on what "The Man" says. I honestly can say I have no clue on this line.

"The Man" has the Broncos giving the Colts 3 points and the total at 39.5...the total is a no play. I can't believe someone is giving Peyton Manning a FG lead to start the game...maybe I am drinking too much beer in Chicago...

Pitt @ Oakland

Oakland has a winning streak...it will end at 1. The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are in desperation mode. They cannot let a game against the worst team in the NFL sneak up on them. Big Ben looks like he is going to start...Joey Porter has been upgraded to probable...but they are beat up with hamstring injuries everywhere. The bottom line is our back ups would give these guys a good game and probably still be favored. The only thing that remotely scares me is that Randy Moss seems like he is starting to play again...maybe auditioning for another team...and Porter looks to be back as well...and auditioning as well.

Pitt favored by 9 and the total at 43...I love my boys here and the over is intriguing...however, our D might come out with a lot of pride...but we will score 35 at least.

"The Man" has Pitt giving 9 and the total at 39.5...I am still in shock over the Browns giving points...I still like Pitt and the over is still calling my name...I am guessing that they are thinking the Pitt D will show up with pride and keep Oakland off the board...

Dallas @ Carolina

Tony Romo: "Thanks Bill". Bill: "We have to end the controversy...you won't survive this game." The Carolina DL vs. the Boys O-line is the biggest mismatch we have seen since Japan bombed Hawaii...I don't know what they were thinking in the 40's and I don't know what Parcells is thinking here. If I were going to change QB's I may have chosen to do so against Houston or TN...not half way through a MNF game where your O-line is getting manhandled.

Carolina should be favored by at least 10 and the total in the low 40's. Anything less than 10 and I am taking the Panthers...road game on Sunday night...not smart Bill.

"The Man" has Carolina giving 5.5 points and the total at 41. I love the Panthers here...plain and simple...

NE @ MN

The Vikes continue to surprise me, but remember they played half that game in Seattle against Seneca Wallace and no Shaun. Old Man Johnson is playing well enough not to lose. The Pats meanwhile killed the Bills as expected and are beginning to roll.

I think the Pats should be favored by about 4 and the total around 40. I think NE wins this game, but I hate road favorites on MNF. The under could be interesting...now let's see what the man has to say...

"The Man" has Pats giving 2 and the total at 38.5...all too close for my liking...especially with the other nuggets out there...

1st half for ND leaves lots of questions

2006-10-25T23:32:00.000-04:00

I am a week late, but I hope I am not a dollar short. I wanted to do a Notre Dame report card after 6 weeks, but the extra week helped me make some decisions as well. Here it goes:

QB: When you start with a team, you generally first look at the QB. Brady Quinn is a stud. He is as tough as they come. However, he has been getting the snot kicked out of him (we will get to the O-line later). I personally can’t decide if Quinn’s missing WR’s are a reflection of him or the fact that the WR’s are not making the same plays they did last year and he has no time. I will give him an A for effort, heart and toughness, but overall a B+. If he wants to be the man, then he must shoulder some of the responsibility.

RB: Walker fumbled against UCLA for the first time since his eighth grade picnic. The bottom line though is that Darius has only eclipsed 100 yards rushing twice, three if you want to count the 99 yards at G-Tech. He has played a very large role in the passing game averaging 6 catches a game with 40 additional yards a game. No other RB has gotten enough time to even discuss. Darius is a slightly above average college RB, but will never make it for long in the NFL, see former ND RB’s Lee Becton, Autry Denson, and Reggie Brooks as examples. I thought Weis would teach him how to hit the hole rather than dance into it. I think if he ever learns to ram into the line and run with confidence, he could become much more effective. He must learn that a 1 yard gain on some plays is not necessarily a bad play. Overall I give him a B.

WR: The Shark (just so you know I can’t spell his last name so I go with his nickname), Rhema and the recently emerging Grimes to me have been disappointing. While they have made several good plays, they have not made the great plays that defined the receivers of 2005, save The Shark’s last catch against UCLA. It seems to me that Quinn has been trying to throw it up a couple of times a game, but these guys are not helping him. Combine this with the dropped passes, this corp has been disappointing to me. I think I am being generous giving them a C+.

TE: Carlson is really the only none worth discussing. He has done everything asked of him. He has opened the middle of the field and made himself a weapon to consider. I do not think his rare drops are a concern. I am not sure off hand if Freemen or Carlson have more eligibility, but if both leave, this could be a weakness next year. Overall, I give this group the highest grade of A-.

OL: Saying this group stinks would be complimenting them. I think most of these guys will get a chance to play on Sunday. However, Harris gets out of his break and handles the speed rusher like a guy on Atkins in a beer store (yes I am describing myself). Santucci and Sullivan have been OK…which is a big compliment for this line. Bob Morton stinks. He allows more defenders through than pimp with a heroin addiction. Sam Young is young. I think he has potential, but he has had his problems as well. The biggest problem with this crew is that the holes exist on the right side and defenses are attacking that weakness. Overall a D is very generous for this group.

DL: Laws and Landri have been solid and spectacular at times. Talley decided to leave the team and we think it has to do with the fact that Weis was using Frome so much because he is better. Abriamari is another example of a guy who has been very good at times, but disappears too often for my liking. These guys are much more solid against the run than pass. Overall I give this group a decent C+.

LB: Grading this group is tough. I expected nothing and thought they would be horrible. They have made some plays and not been as bad as I thought. Maurice Crum Jr. has been solid, but not great, however he is undersized as a MLB. Both Travis and Mitchell Thomas have been okay. Brockinton has played and practiced so well that Weis and the staff have insisted he get some playing time. Overall, they don’t make many great plays, but don’t make many horrible plays. The problem is that this group should be making more plays. Overall I give them a C.

DB: Do I really need to talk about them? The CB’s are bad. The safeties are aggressive that often leads to them being out of position. Hard to find something nice to say about a group who is giving up 200+ yards a game. The only positive is they have made some plays when necessary, i.e. MSU. The other thing is that they have always let only one man really get to them in every game. I honestly thought the 200+ yards per game would have been closer to 300 yards…that being said, they still aren’t very good. Overall I say C- is very generous. I am not deducting due to the lack of pressure.

Coaches: I have not been shy about liking Weis. I think he is a good coach. I questioned his hiring of Minter as D-coordinator and I still wonder about it. I think Weis has not installed a sense of discipline and urgency that is needed. In addition, I don’t think he has made the necessary adjustments during a game to make a difference. If I can see it, then everyone should see the need for “max protect” on more occasions throughout the game. At the same point, I don’t think this team is near this close without Weis’ preparation. I think a B- is also very generous.

Please let me tell me what you think.

Week 7: What a week

2006-10-24T20:05:00.000-04:00

Car - Cincy
I thought for sure Cincy's D and injured OL was going to be overwhelmed by Car but somehow they managed to shut out the Car O. I want to see Cincy do it over an extended streak before I buy into this team but I was definately impressed with Cincy. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how Car didn't put up SOME points on Cincy's decimated D. The NFC South is a division up for grabs.

Jets - Det
Jets are playing with heart but have beaten nobody. Can they make a wildcard run with a little confidence boost if they keep winning? Clevelands next for them so watch out.

GB - Miami
Joey threw 3 INTs. GB somehow scored points. Two BAD teams duking it out....what fun.

Hous - Jax
How do you throw your season away??? You lose to Houston. Beat Pitt, beat dallas and then lose to Hous....what can I make of a team like this other than to say this is not a team ready for a Super Bowl run. This team is dangerous at any moment but if you can't beat Houston you dont have the heart to go far. Thanks for playing.

NE - Buff
NE is right there despite the lack of talent. Buffalo sucks. 4 Weeks ago analysts were writing NE off because they lost too much talent etc, dont be surprised to see the story to be how great a coach Belicheck is and how Brady can make anyone look good. How fickle we all are.

TB - Philly
This time the Sieve didn't lose the game. Donovan gave it to TB. I really don't know what to make of this team but this weeks game vs Jax might tell us something.

KC - SD
What the hell happened here???? I'm not buying this at all. I still think KC isnt very good and SD is very good. You heard it here, this was a fluke. KC isn't a good team and SD is, I don't care what happened in this game.

Den - Clev
Den still can't score, Jake is in trouble but their D is solid. Good thing Clev sucks. Uh-oh, they have to play Indy this week......looks like Jake is going to have to score this week so we'll see how that goes.

Oak - AZ
If I'm the Tidwells and I"m interviewing my next headcoach I throw anyone out of my office if they don't start their first sentence with "The OL will improve by.....". If your first point isn't about the OL then move on. Edge had 13 carries for 35 yards.....c'mon...it's really easy....have you seen ANY team win the Super Bowl with a SHITTY OL???? Thats what you have....FIX IT. Oh, Oak still sucks.

Minn - Seattle
Screw Minny, they're still mediocre and I won't even discuss them here. They're not going anywhere, they're no factor in the season so why bother. Seattle has problems....no QB, no MVP RB, no #1 WR......problems.

Indy -Wash
Wash stinks....I don't get their offense at all. Indy is Indy....score alot but can their D sustain??? We'll see but I have my doubts as the playoffs approach and tough D's start getting to Peyton.

Lots of great game coming in week 8 so stay tuned and come back.

A special thanks to TO as well

2006-10-24T10:51:00.000-04:00

I commented on GuruBob's MNF posting already so I'll leave you to read my thoughts on the QB situation there but let's not forget whiny TO either.

For all the whining about wanting the ball and being the playmaker and why am I even here......how does he miss a 5 yard pass, in his hands on 4th and 2 on the Giants 32 when they are down 19-7. Driving down field with a chance to pull the game within reach, still early in the 3rd quarter and TO drops a 5 yard pass that hits him in the hands.

Stop whining TO, focus on catching the ball. "ooohhh, my coach is mean to me and said some horrible nasty things", grow up, its a man's sport.

Monday Night Hangover

2006-10-24T09:33:00.000-04:00

First I want to mention that Lavar Arrington joins the infirmary report with a torn achilles and is out for the year. Also, Osi Umenyiora left the gain with a strained hip...so they won the game, but they did not come out unscathed.

Now onto my rant of the day. The Tuna has to be hungover today, because if he thought that a guy who threw exactly two passes in the NFL before last night was going to lead his team back in this one without any practice as the #1 QB, then he must have been drinking something other than gatorade on the sidelines.

He should have put in his second offensive line. These guys are horrible. They can't run block and they can't pass block...this seems to be a problem to me. Drew took a few sacks, but most of them the defender was in his grill before he could figure out where his WR's were. I will be the first to admit that the INT in the red zone at the end of the first half was horrible and a bad decision. Let's give some credit to Sam Madison for making a nice read and undercutting the route. You might want to look at the play calling in that sequence before you crucify Bledsoe. You run the ball 3 times and get first down at the 4. Marion Barber is in the backfield...everyone knew he was getting the ball on the next play. Run a play action pass and I guarantee the TE would have been wide open.

Bledsoe got sacked 4 times and I would say one of those were as a result of him holding the ball too long. The other three were just outstanding pressure by the G-men or you could say bad blocking by the Boys. Has the Tuna never heard of max protect? Keep the RB's and TE's in to help a bad line. With guys like TO, Glenn, and Crayton, these guys will get open.

I could understand the move a little more if Tuna had brought Romo in for more than a half drive in Houston or at all in TN. Those were two blowout wins that Romo could have gotten some meaningful snaps in a game. I realize the Houston game was close for a while, but the game was well in hand by the 4th quarter. Tennessee was never in doubt. This was a huge mistake.

So, it all comes down to this: was this a huge mistake by Tuna? Has Tuna's ego gotten so big that he thinks he can't make a wrong move? Does it matter in any way, i.e. did they have a chance to win with either QB? I personally think the Tuna is hurting his legacy lately. Remember he wanted Bledsoe. I think he will stay another year because you can get new linemen in free agency and the draft to improve it. Their is plenty of talent around the team.

Gurus only ones healthy after week 7

2006-10-23T21:38:00.000-04:00

The Gurus had another big week and brought home the bacon. We were 3-1-1 on Sunday picking up an additional 4.8 stars and bringing the total on the season to a positive 6.1 stars. Lotion went to a still unprecedented 7-2 on this site thanks to the heartless Lions of State College, Pa.

We have heard weekends referred to as rivalry weekend or showdown Sunday. This past weekend will go down as infirmary Sunday. The following are a list of key injuries that happened on Sunday:

Matt Hasselbeck will miss 3 - 4 weeks due to a knee sprain - all this after the Vikes handed the Hawks their arse and kicked me out of my suicide pool.

Mike Doss tears his ACL and will miss the rest of the year - a weak defense just got weaker.

Big Ben suffered what appeared to be a concussion and may miss the game against Oakland - the good news is their next opponent is Oakland and I think I could QB them to victory.

Gary Baxter tore both his patellar tendons while defending a pass in the first half of the game against Denver - that Cleveland defense just got worse...if possible.

Matt Lepsis - starting LT for the Broncos has a torn ACL and is done for the year...with the Broncos being so dependent on the run, this could have a huge impact on their weekly game plan.

Breaking News: GuruJoe has been contacted to come out of retirement by the GB Packers to play WR - Robert Ferguson goes down with a foot injury for the third year in a row...they went and signed some guy from Portland State...and you wonder why Favre can't do anything?

All the MN WR's that you have heard of (can you name one that doesn't have the last name, Robinson, Taylor, or Williamson?) have injuries after their game in Seattle. All look to play next week, but none will be 100%.

Some other non-injury issues:

Shawne Merrimen is facing a 4 game suspension for use of a steroid - this is a huge impact on that great D. Merrimen is appealing the suspension.

Jags DE Bobby McCray was arrested for reckless driving and possession of a controlled painkiller...maybe he was carrying them for the rest of the defense after that embarassing loss to Houston.

These are not your father's Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers

2006-10-23T15:20:00.000-04:00

I just needed to rant a little this morning. Here are the key points for me for the Atlanta/Steelers game:

1) I hated the challenge of the Dunn TD run…it wasted a much needed timeout. I was yelling at the TV when Cowher threw the red flag.

2) I hate the 10 second run off rule (which would have been irrelevant if we had the TO) at the end of a half. I understand if you do it to stop the clock, but they clearly had enough time to spike the ball. This should be a judgment call.

3) Batch, as a veteran, needed to be more aware of the timing on the last play…he had plenty of time...i.e. it is his fault for the false start. He had plenty of time to make sure every one was set.

4) At some point, your great defense needs to make a stop of hold a team to a FG. This happened in the Cinci game and again yesterday. When the offense or special teams make a mistake, a great D helps out. These guys should quit spending their time stomping and kicking and worry about keeping the opposing team out of the end zone.

5) The Atlanta WR's suck…plain and simple…double cover Alge.

6) Why don't you try to get a FG at the end of the first half…3 timeouts left and you just created a turnover with 47 seconds left.

7) I am tired of people complaining about OT in the NFL. We didn't lose the game because of a coin flip. We lost the game for the reasons above…the coin flip should not have mattered.

7th Heaven is upon us...

2006-10-22T11:20:00.000-04:00

It is official...the Gurus are pumped about this week. After much deliberation and analysis here are your official week 7 picks:

Carolina +3 - Two cats going in opposite directions - we are going with the upswing team - 3 Stars

NE -5.5 - NE is clicking and JP sucks - 3 Stars on the Pats

SD -5.5 - GuruJoe has convinced me Damon sucks and it doesn't matter how tough Arrowhead is - 2 Stars on SD

Philly/TB 42.5 - the over is the play here as the D's don't play much and Philly has the number one O - 2 Stars on the over

Denver - 4.5 - The Gurus don't understand this one at all...we don't care about the bye week, we care about Charlie sucking - 2 stars on Denver.

Big card with big results this week...

Week 7 Thoughts on GuruBob's Analysis

2006-10-21T16:01:00.000-04:00

Pitt (-1.5) @ ATL
Ben’s preseason if over. The Steelers finally got into a bit of a rhythm last week and the Falcons got horribly embarrassed last week at home. Both teams need this game in order to keep pace in their divisions. I want to believe the Steelers physical game will stop the Falcons ground attack and our OL can manhandle their D just like the Giants did. Seems a perfect matchup for the Steelers because we usually get beat in games where our secondary gets picked apart. Vick can’t do that so what’s our concern here? My only concern is Atl coming back from an embarrassing loss.

NE (-5.5) at Buff
I don’t care where this game is played. Two teams heading in opposite directions. Did the Man notice that Buffalo lost to Detroit last week? Did the Man see how they got thumped by the Bears the week before? Did the Man consider what a Belichek team could do after a Bye week to Just Punt? Me thinks not. The two feet of snow has gone from Buffalo and a NE team on the rise rolls in……either way it’s a poor forecast for Just Punt and I’m liking NE.

Car (+3) @ Cincy
We gave Car a 5 star pick last week because we said Balt doesn’t have enough O to keep up with Car. This week we must question whether the bengals have enough D to keep Car out of the endzone. Cincy beat a KC team that is looking weak, a horrible Clev team and Pitt handed them their 3rd victory. They got thumped by NE….run over like a freight train and then lost to a rookie QB getting his second start last week. Cincy has no D and very little OL. Meanwhile, CAR keeps rolling and picking up steam and confidence each week. Someone PLEASE explain to me why they are getting points. The line is the courtesy home field adv spot…..are you telling me The Man thinks on a neutral field, with all the injuries and problems that Cincy is AS GOOD AS Car at this point in the season?

SD (-5.5) @ KC
Here’s another one….GuruBob, what is your hesitation….I think his hesitation is that his good friend the big Kansan is from KC and feeding him some Cherry Flavored CoolAid. Damon Huard beat AZ and SF…..let me repeat, AZ and SF. I’m not buying that Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play anymore. 14-0 after a few SD scores should shut them up and turn them even. I see no reason to worry on this one Gurubob. SD is for real and has to win to keep pace with Den who gets a bye week, although they have to vacation in Clev to get it.

GB @ Miami
NO GuruBob, Miami really shouldn’t be giving ANYONE 5.5 points. That said, I’m a man of principle (well, that’s a lie) and simply can’t get myself to bet on this shit game. They should just cancel the game, flip a coin to determine the winner and save everyone the agony.

Jax @ Hous over 40.5
I don’t like it GuruBob. Jags have scored 30 and 41 in the last two games vs bad Ds. Houston gave up 33 in the second half alone last week vs Dallas. Hous is BAD….real BAD. Jax could put up 30 and Hous could lay down some junk points. This seems a tad scary to me so I see better value this week personally. It very well could be a 24-3 game and I could be dead wrong but I’m equally uncertain that it won’t be a 35-7 game. Jax showed last week that they aren’t afraid to just keep putting up points.

Philly @ TB over 43
I said in my “Games of the Week” that Philly can score and their D is not playing well. They give up points. Their D stays on the field way too long each game and gets worn down. Philly scores close to 30 a game and gives up A LOT of points. I’m with you GuruBob, 30 points for Philly means TB only needs to score 14 on the Sieve.

Den -4.5 @ Clev
Doesn’t Clev suck? Aren’t they almost as bad as Oak? Why are they only getting half the points Oak got? Why did Shanahan shackle Plummer last week only allowing him 18 attempts? This seems way to conservative for the cocky Shanahan and I don’t see it again. If he opens it up a bit and lets Plummer make plays the offense should get going at some point….why not on their vacation this week in Clev.

OAK/AZ over 40
Guru Bob, are you smoking crack again? Why are you betting on games involving Oak and AZ? Little known fact, Oak is giving up the least number of passing yards a game. Is this because they are always so far behind that their opposition simply gives up passing the ball? If that’s not the explanation then maybe this is the ONLY unit on the team that’s any good. Fitzgerald is still out, Matt looked superhuman in the first half and like the rookie he is in the second half Monday Night. I’m not betting either of these teams will score. Again, two horrible teams and you just don’t know what you’ll get.

NYG @ Dallas over 45
Intriguing indeed. Two high powered offenses, Giants Defense has shown vulnerability this year. Monday night, TO in primetime. Can the Giant’s D get to Bledsoe? If not, they’ll score. Giants are well balanced and will be up for this division game. They can run and pass with weapons all over that O. These teams won’t be settling for FGs. Its growing on me as well.

Ladies and Gentlemen, put your hands together for the astonishing Lotion!!!

2006-10-21T09:55:00.000-04:00

A fitting intro now that the H.O. Jay-Z is back again! Lotion padding his pockets with more cheese than a cleptomaniac in WalMart. Lotion rolling on this forum with a 7-1 record. That is 88%, the best record in America. Sad to say, Lotion's paying customers are already 8-1 on the year as Lotion provided them the under in the UL-Lafayette vs. Fla Atlantic game. Lotion was under the 47 points and the final score was 6-0. This was Lotion's second strongest play of the year and fit Lotion's #1 prognostication parameter. But that is neither here nor there. Lotion is not sure how often you girls check into this site for your fix, so he will stick with a Saturday release this week for you and surely still get to 8-1 on this forum. Lotion REALLY loves his Steelers this week and this is a PERFECT match-up for them. Lotion was brought here to do what he does best......college football. He will non intrude on the Guru's turf, just throwing it out there. So many Dogs this weekend that look good.....GTech +7.5, Miami, Oh +7, Alabama +12, etc. You women know Lotion luvs them Dogs!! But not this week, Lotion going the other way in a game where Vegas is giving you TREMENDOUS value based on last week. As Always, Stick with the Program......It has proven for a decade that it is the ONLY way to make $$$:

TOP PICK: Penn State -18

Illinois......enough said. Penn State's season was ended last week after being dominated and literally beat down by Micheeegan. The vaunted Michigan defense knocked both of the Lion QB's silly. PSU is a soft team with not much talent. But the Illini would lose to most high school teams. Anthony Morelli has played better each week and will be back from Queer Street to lead the Lions this weekend. What Penn State does good is run the football. What Illinois does VERY bad is stop the run. The Lions will run all over the Illini and will have this number covered by halftime. There is enormous line value here based on the question marks at QB for PSU, their inability to generate any offense, etc. But PSU will be ready to get back on track and the perfect remedy will be a pathetic Illinois defense. PSU's defense has played solid all year and very stout against the run for the most part. Illinois cannot throw and will not make a day of it in Happy Valley trying to run the football. Lotion looking for PSU to win this game 42-10. Do not be surprised if they beat Illinois by double the Vegas Line. This one is TOO easy. Lotion on his way to 8-1!!!! Take the Lions and lay the points.

Prediction Time (Notre Dame v. UCLA)

2006-10-19T22:39:00.000-04:00

Alright sportsfans. ND made it past the bye week unscathed and now it is on to a real opponent. UCLA should pose the biggest single threat for the Irish until the season finale with the hated Trojans. Remarkably, UCLA is ranked in the top 10 nationally in defense. ND should consider offering the UCLA defensive coordinator a job because he has done wonders in one short year. I digress. UCLA has two great pass rush defensive ends that should get some heat on Brady Quinn. I look for ND to play some smash mouth football. Look for Darius Walker to have a nice game. Also, I look for James Aldridge to have a break out game. ND needs to pound it on these guys and take their speed out of the game. On defense, look for ND to have a good game. UCLA backup QB Cowen can't talk -- problem for UCLA -- he is starting this week. UCLA will try to establish the run against the Irish, but the rested Irish D will come to play. This week is important, but the prediction is short. The Big Kansan feels confident. ND - 31; UCLA - 17.

Week 7 - Games Worth Paying the Wife to go Shopping

2006-10-19T22:37:00.000-04:00

Carolina (4-2) vs Cincy (3-2)
Two preseason favorites matching up in week 7. Carolina was the preseason darling pick for the Super Bowl, Cincy was on a short list of many for the AFC. Carolina is on a 4 game win streak with Steve Smith in the lineup while Cincy is on a 2 game slide following 3 early season wins vs KC, Clev and the gift given to them by the Steelers. Carolina should have a good D but they rank a mere 16th overall, middle of the pack vs the Run and Pass…..thats good news for Cincy. The bad news for Cincy is they rank 24th overall and that ranking seems to be sliding by the week and Carolina, although ranked only 18th on O, is getting better each week with all their weapons. Cincy can’t stop the run, plain and simple so perhaps a big game from DeShaun. Game is in Cincy, so they got that going for them. The most interesting aspect of this game is that neither team has room for a loss in their divisions.

Philly (4-2) vs TB (1-4)
Why is a game between the powerhouse Eagles and the 1-4 Bucs a key game of interest to this guru? Because Philly is VERY dangerous on O…..they rank #1 in passing, #1 overall and #3 in scoring. They rank a mere 13 rushing but that’s because they don’t actually rush that often (rank 22nd in # of attempts). McNabb is a stud even with the lack of weapons other than Westbrook (check prior post where I said there’s a reason NO doesn’t want Stallworth….his hammy’s are more fragile than my 5 year old daughter’s feelings). Philly should win this game handily BUT their D is horrible (26th overall) and TB is finding a little rhythm with Grad at the helm. Philly beat Hous, SF, GB and barely Dallas….even with 5 Turnovers they came very close to losing. If Philly wins handily as they should, this game is a non-event but if TB wins Philly shows some real signs of weakness in a 3 horse race for that division AND young Simms might be out a job…..Interesting?

Pitt (2-3) at Atl (3-2)
The number 1 rushing O vs a VERY good rushing D (ranked 8…I was shocked they weren’t top 5 but there are a lot of tough teams at the top and only 7 yards a game between #2 and #8). Pitt’s typical vulnerability on D is the pass but ATL is 32nd in passing the ball. Vick hasn’t seen a safety like Troy that can cover him. Troy just needs to ensure he doesn’t over-pursue and get burnt. Atl got torched by the Giants last week so they are going to be a bit pissed but fact is their 3 wins were vs the Smithless Panthers, the Bucs who just got their first win, and AZ…..maybe they just aren’t that good because they are SO 1 dimensional. For Pitt, Ben finally showed up……is his preseason finally over? Is he here to play for the regular season? Are the WRs finally ready to make some plays? Is the OL finally gelling and got the running game going? Will the real Pittsburgh Steelers of 2006 PLEASE stand up. If they are out of their early season funk, Pitt should win, if the 7 INT, 0 TD Ben shows up its gonna be interesting. Both teams need this to keep pace in their respective divisions. Early to call a game must win neither team wants to fall to far down in their tough divisions.

GAME OF THE WEEK:
NY Football Giants (3-2) vs Big D (3-2)
Monday Night Football. Two division rivals with the same record. Both teams keeping pace with Philly. The TO circus in prime time. Both teams have the potential to score points….Giants rank 2nd in overall O and Dallas 6th. Giants rank 17th in total D but perhaps they’re turning around with their last 2 victories….or maybe shutting down Wash and stopping ATL really aren’t that hard. Dallas ranks 6th in total D but 21st vs the Pass. Giants can run and pass so its not good if your D is faulty in either category. The fact that they rank 21st and their schedule to date includes Jax, Wash, TN, Philly and Hous is even scarier because there aren’t many powerhouses there other than Philly. The game in Dallas is a HUGE advantage because the crowd will be less a factor for Bledsoe. Offenses almost equal, Defense advantage to Dallas, potential for spontaneous implosion….advantage Giants because as stated before Bledsoe can singlehandedly lose a game and who knows what TO will do at any moment. Look for this to be a great one.

Other games of note:
SD at KC – KC showed some real weakness last week and SD is rolling. Is KC really as bad as they appeared last week? Is SD really as good as they are showing these past two weeks? Rivers will play in one of the toughest stadiums in football vs a team that was outright embarrassed last week. Could be interesting to see how he reacts.

Minny at Seattle – I have said Minny is mediocre all year. I have said Seattle is the class of their division. They play great at home and should win easily. I dare each team to prove me wrong…..but I doubt it.

Det at Jets – Jets were supposed to be HORRIBLE this year. Lions were a potential up and comer with the new coaching staff. Jets have heart and are playing .500 ball, Det just got a win. This game is only interesting because we might see if these teams are as bad as we suspect.

Week seven - oh it's going to be heaven

2006-10-19T20:24:00.000-04:00

Unless you are "The Man" that is...the Gurus come into this week a positive 1.3 stars...Lotion is an unprecedented 7 - 1...how much longer before we appear on Fox Sports Net?

GuruJoe has gone through all the key matchups and now we breakdown every game and try to find the nuggets.

The Defending Super Bowl Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta

Atlanta gave up 250+ rushing yards last week. They have the worst passing offense in the league and the number one rushing offense in the league. One thing the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers do very well is stop the run. This doesn't look like a very good matchup for the Falcons. The Steelers love to run the ball and the run defense that I once called much improved has proven to not be so improved. The other key to this game could be the suspension of Guard Matt Lehr...he is key on the Falcons offensive line and this could be huge in pass blocking, which the line has struggled with at times.

I know the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 1.5...the total should be in the high 30's...the over could be intriguing...I like my Steelers, but would not bet them on the road in Atlanta...Vick is always a little faster in the dome.

"The Man" is giving Altanta more points...the trend is on the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers...the total is 37.5...Atlanta is averaging a mere 12 points against decent teams, i.e. teams that know what a defense is (I took AZ out of the equation). The only problem I have with this over is the run first mentality of both teams...but the Steelers are growing on me, but maybe that is just my heart.

Pats @ Buffalo

The Bills played the Pats tougher than I expected in week 1 keeping this game within 2 points. This was before the Pats were comgin together on offense...playboy Tom Brady was thinking more of his mate Branch than who he could throw the ball to. The Bills got demolished by the Bears...then they lost to the cowardly Lions...people are realizing what the Gurus have been saying for weeks...their QB is a drive killer.

I think the Pats will be favored by about a TD and the total will be in the high 30's...I hate the road favorite and don't like them coming off a bye...if they beat Cinci by 20+ on the road and now they have two weeks to prepare for the Bills...seems like a no brainer...GuruJoe?

"The Man" has NE giving 5.5 and the total at 37.5...I don't like the total, but I am still intrigued by the line. Just Punt is not very good and now people are clamoring for a change...how long before the home crowd turns on him this week? This team is definitely going in the wrong direction as the season progresses...

Carolina @ Cinci

Carolina is 4 - 0 with Steve Smith...Cinci is still reeling with suspensions, arrests, and injuries...earlier in the year, I would have given the edge to Cinci, but they lost a heartbreaker to TB last week and can't stop the run. Carolina is clicking on both sides of the ball...they gave up two fluke TD's on deflections last week...

I would put this at around a pick 'em game or Carolina as a small favorite. I wouldn't touch the line, but would lean toward Carolina...I just don't know how Cinci can keep overcoming the obstacles. The total should be in the high 30's to low 40's...who knows which Cinci team will show up...this is a stay away game for this guru...

"The Man" has Cinci giving 3 and the total at 44.5. Cinci is so beat up and on a downward trend...Carolina meanwhile keeps rolling with Mr. Smith back...I wouldn't touch the total as the Cinci offense has been less than impressive. I am leaning toward riding the Carolina train again...

SD @ KC

I have said it numerous times...Arrowhead may be the toughest place to play in the NFL...KC will not be happy after the whipping they received last week...the question is does it matter how mad they are? Maybe they just aren't that good...to me this team is looking like another 9-7 record winning at home and losing on the road.

SD should be favored by about 3 or 4 and the total should be in the low 40's...I don't bet on road teams at Arrowhead...but the over might not be a bad play...

"The Man" has SD favored by 5.5 and the total at 41...ultimately that SD D is going to scare me away from this total...we saw what happened last week to KC...

GB @ Miami

I wouldn't touch this game for anything...Joey Harrington...Favre...two D's that are not very good...if you touch this game, you need help.

Pick 'em game and the total in the mid-30's...not that it matters...

"The Man" has Miami giving 5.5 points and the total at 40...I would not touch this game as I have said before, but should Miami be giving any team 5.5 points at this point.

Detroit @ NYJ

Is Detroit happy with the first win? Will this lead to a roll or complacency? NYJ keeps showing heart and playing hard...Chad and Coles are on the same page. Can they stop Kevin Jones? All these questions and more will be answered this Sunday.

I think the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 4 and the total in the low 40's...the over is intriguing to me here, but both teams performances last week scare me a little...I would stay away from the line...

"The Man" has NYJ giving 3.5 and the total at 42.5...stay away...

Jax @ Houston

Houston played Dallas tough for a half...is that a sign that they are improving or don't have the heart to play them for a full game? Meanwhle, Jax was sitting at home trying to get healed...Stroud, Jones, Peterson and McDougle are out...Byron, Cousin, and Wiley are questionable...these cats are beat up. However, some beat up pussy cats should be able to beat the Texans.

I am guessing the Jags are favored by about 6 and the total in the mid 30's. Based on the Jags injuries and Byron's last minute injury, this is a stay away game for this guru...but can Houston's 30th ranked offense do anything against the strong Jags D.

"The Man" has the Jags giving 9.5 and the total at 40.5...too many points on a beat up team on the road...however, the total looks a little high to me...Houston is averaging 14 points/game and I can't see them getting close to that against this D...the Jags are beat up and will try to run the ball and control the game...GuruJoe, please help me here...

Philly @ TB

Philly brings the #1 offense to TB for a key NFC matchup. TB does not have the stellar D that it once had ranking 9th against the pass, but near the bottom against the run. TB meanwhile has struggled all season on offense. Gradkowski has looked pretty good in his two starts, winning this past week against Cinci. Cadillac has struggled behind the below average O-line, but seems to be getting in gear. Both teams are somewhat banged up, but getting healthier.

I am guessing that Philly is favored by about 4 or 5 and the total will be around 44. Something tells me that TB may pull this one out...therefore, I am thinking of taking the points...we need to see the line. Last week, the over was intriguing to me with Cinci and TB and it went under...I am again thinking of going over again...GuruJoe, talk to me here...

"The Man" has Philly giving 5.5 and the total at 43...I would trend to TB as their play has improved as of late, but ultimately would stay away...I am still very intrigued by this over...shouldn't both teams score in the 20's easily? GuruJoe?

Denver @ Cleveland

The Broncos cost me a perfect week against Oakland. They attempted just 18 passes, completing 11 for 102 yards. They took no chances. They were content running the ball for 144 yards and not letting Oakland do anything. Think the game plan might be the same this week? Cleveland ranks 29th in rushing offense and 27th in passing offense...meanwhile, they rank 27th against the rush. Could be another inflated line.

I still think Cleveland sucks...I bet the line will be Denver favored by about 9 and the total in the mid 30's...the under might look interesting because both teams will run, run and run some more. I would stay away from the line due to the Oakland game.

"The Man" has Denver giving 4.5 and the total at 31.5...wow...this shocks me...I know Denver hasn't been lighting the world on fire, but this is Cleveland right? I wouldn't touch the total as Cleveland may not score on this D, but Denver has gone under all 5 games...time to get on this trend...not this small...4.5 seems really small...GuruJoe?

MN @ Seattle

Minnesota comes off the bye week healthy...and they need to be for this matchup. Seattle won a key NFC West matchup on the road last week. Seattle is a notorius average road team and almost unbeatable at home. Seattle will be without Shaun, Engram and Womack. I don't think the Vikes can come across country and beat this team. I will take a top NFC team against an average NFC North team.

Seattle should be favored by about 8 and the total around 39. Seattle can score, but MN's offense is more questionable than Anna Nicole's motives in marrying the old guy...Old Man Johnson should be next on her hit list.

"The Man" has Seattle winning this game by 6.5 and the total at 41...stay away game for me, but the under is intriguing as MN can play D and can't play O.

AZ @ Oakland

If Oakland doesn't win this game, then their only other chance on the schedule is Houston. AZ should have beaten the Bears. Does that loss demoralize them or motivate them? These are the type of emotional games that I stay away from.

AZ should be favored by about a TD and the total in the mid-40's...the over might be a good play. AZ will score on the Raiders...let's see the final total.

"The Man" has the Cards giving 3 and the total at 40...the line and total seem low to me...but I wouldn't touch the line. The total however is intriguing...Oakland has scored 20 points against lesser D's (Cleve and SF)...there is no doubt AZ will score 30 is there?

Skins @ Indi

The Skins got beat by the Titans...things are getting bad. The good news is that Indi has had some major problems stopping the run. Bob Sanders is still probably going to be out. Anthony McFarland looks to play, but may be limited in the number of plays. The Skins most likely get Shawn Springs back in the starting lineup, which should help the defense. The question is whether Brunell and the offense can wake up.

The bad news for the Skins is the Colts are had two weeks to prepare for them. I am guessing that Indi will be favored by about 9 or 10 and the total will be in the mid 40's...the over might be the play. Let's see the final total.

"The Man" has Indi giving up 9 and the total at 48.5...can't touch this game...

NYG @ Dallas

In probably the game of the week, the G-men travel to the circus...the problem is the circus may have left town. TO got 3 TD's last week and their is no talk of TO this week. Dallas is the #1 rush defense. Tiki has announced that this is probably going to be is last year. Monday night in Dallas is tough to overcome though.

Dallas should be a FG favorite and the total in the mid-40's...I see a shootout here...both teams like to run first, but the rush defenses may dictate the teams to look to pass more...we will withhold judgment on this game until Monday.

"The Man" has Dallas favored by 3 and the total at 45...I don't like the line, but the total is still intriguing to me...GuruJoe?

Spoke to soon???

2006-10-19T07:50:00.000-04:00

Week 6 had some shocking moments and then some not so shocking moments:

Maybe the Aints are for real...they showed heart, they didn't make mistakes and they actually have been playing defense...the two headed monster of Deuce and Reggie is formiddable...this win convinced me.

Philly meanwhile still is a very good team and has proven to me that they won't end up in last place in the division...the Skins have that all wrapped up. The Skins give up 178 yards rushing to Travis Henry and lose to the lowly Titans. Good thing that week 5 game against Indi scared us away. Is it possible the Titans don't suck as bad as we thought? Naaaahhhhh!!! The Skins just aren't that good...

Does anyone in Detroit know they still have a football team...well sort of...as predicted here...the Lions get off the schneid (can anyone confirm the spelling of this?)...Kitna to Williams...wouldn't you think the Bills would eventually cover that?

I spoke way too soon on that Atlanta run defense...just when you think you are seeing some improvement, they go and give up 259 rushing yards...in one game...the Cowboys and Bolts have given up just under 100 total yards rushing on the year. Fast Willie Parker could eb the leading rusher after this week...he is only 100 yards behind.

Houston played one good half...and TO played a good half as well...TO won...at least he is happy this week and everything is running smoothly with the circus.

It's official...the Greatest Show on Turf is back...the run first St. Louis Rams are done...the Rams loss to Seattle was good and bad...they played tough and it came down to a 54 yard, last second FG to beat them...the good news is that they can play with the big boys...the bad news is they can't beat them.

Seattle is still the class of the NFC West...sorry all you upstarts/surprise teams of 2006.

Bruce Gradkowski could be the real deal...the Bucs have won their first game with him at the helm and were very competitive in the other game...could Simms be out of a job when he is healthy?

The Fossil is gone...the Ravens offense has been so bad, that they felt the need to dismiss offense coordinator Jim Fassel. Billick will take over the play calling...McNair's head is a boot this time instead of his foot...I am not convinced this wouldn't be a good thing for the Ravens' offense as Boller didn't look bad at the end of last year or when he came into this game.

Meanwhile, my MVP selection, Steve Smith, is still undefeated.

KC proved itself to be not nearly as good defensively as it had been...the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers pasted them for 45 points...I knew you shouldn't put your money on Damon Huard. The thing I don't understand is why they got the ball with 6 minutes left in the 1st half down by 28 points and chose to run the ball three times up the middle...looks like everyone on the other sideline had quit.

My runner up for MVP might be Chris Kemoeatu...he replaced Kendall Simmons at RG on the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steeler offensive line and holes were opened up all day and Big Ben had all day to throw. I specifically watched him bury the KC DT on several occassions...I am starting the campaign right now.

Breaking News: The Raiders really suck...the Bronco's passed for 92 yards and still received no threat from the Raiders...this team has no heart, no talent, and no hope...I honestly can't see them winning a game.

The Bronco's disappointed me...they never buried them...and cost us a perfect record in week 6...we all know which one disappointed me most.

I am officially on the SD bandwagon...they are good...I know they beat SF this week, but they have been very good.

Finally, the Bears made an incredible comeback. You could feel the emotion through the TV...and then you could feel the game just slipping away. Not to mention the game cost the Bears one of their most valuable players...safety Mike Brown is gone for the season. This could be a huge blow to the Bears.

Across the field, Matt Leinart is going to be very good. Their O-line stinks. Edge has to miss Indi by now. I personally thought Deniss Green's post-game rant was hysterical... http://play.rbn.com/?url=nfl/nfl/open/cardinals/demand/denny10-17.rm&proto=rtsp ...this obviously cost the O-coordinator his job and the new one is talking tough...

Back in Black

2006-10-16T18:43:00.000-04:00

The Gurus have finally made it back above the mendoza line after a huge week. We considered many wagers...Cinci over, Detroit over, Atlanta...and others. However, this week we stayed positive and consistent in our thinking. As a result, you have money in your pockets. We are now a positive 1.3 Stars on the year. If you include Lotions incredible 7 - 1 documented record on this site, it is clear there is no other place for football advice. I told you two weeks ago how important Steve Smith was to the Carolina offense. This past week I said if they win their fourth in a row with him, then his name has to included in MVP talk. What did I wake up to this morning? Mike Greenberg of the famed Mike and Mike radio show on ESPN radio calling Steve Smith his MVP. What guru has been saying this for two weeks?

I told you yesterday that the Bears could be added this evening. I have tossed this around. I have looked at the numbers. I honestly don't see the Bears winning this one by less than 2 TD's as they have every game this year, save the MN game. However, this line has creeped from 10 to 13 points in the past couple of days. At 10 I loved it. The extra three points is just enough to scare me away...I hate the back door cover.

Be happy with all the money in your pockets this week and save it for another day. The Gurus and Lotion will be here every week to add to the total.

The Power of Positive Thinking - Official Week 6 Picks

2006-10-15T09:40:00.000-04:00

The Gurus look to go from red to black in week 6. There has been much banter, much research, and most importantly much focus. The Gurus haven't communicated like this all year. While we are fired up about the Chiefs coming to town we clearly are looking to put money in your pockets. So here are the official picks:

I personally can't believe Carolina is getting 3 points...your first 5 Star pick of the year is Carolina getting 3.

Philly/NO over 46 - 2 Stars

SD -9.5 @ SF - I hate heavy road favorites, but this one just doesn't make sense...SF will be lucky to score 10...take the Bolts - 3 Stars

Denver give what ever you want...they win by 21 - 2 Stars

Week 6 - What we're thinking

2006-10-14T22:53:00.000-04:00

Buffalo - Detroit - GuruBob says he's intrigued by the over. Detroit's D ranks 30th in Scoring D and against the Pass and 14th vs the Run. Buffalo hasn't lit up the scoreboard but they haven't played a D as bad as Detroit to provide them the opportunity. Meanwhile Detroit's O has been up and down....scoring points vs STL and GB, putting up 17 on Minny and not much vs Chicago and Seattle. Roy Williams is hurting and he's one of the only threats for Detroit. This is the scariest factor of the Over. If Roy was healthy this would be an easy pick because Det can put up a few points and I think Buffalo should score in the 20s vs this horrible D.

Balt - Car - I'm with my brother Guru here. Carolina hasn't lost a game with Steve Smith back, they're O is in a rythm and their D is very good. Baltimore's D is also very good but their O is horrible. McNair is playing as if he's in his 50's, I think the average age of the OL is 50 and Jamal can't rush for more than 50 yards a game.....oh, I think Mason last caught a TD in 1950. I'm not saying Carolina is going to light up the scoreboard but 17 points is all they might need.

G-Men -ATL - Gmen rank very low vs the pass but not too shabby vs. the run (9th) and ATL is a run first team. Gmen can run, they can pass they can do it all on Offense.....WHEN they feel like it. ATL's D appears very good and gets Abraham back BUT they played Carolina with no Steve Smith and no rhythm, then a horrible TB team finding its rhythm, then let NO score 23 on them and then played AZ. The Gmen will be the most impressive O they have seen. THE MAN says this game is even on neutral territory spotting Gmen 3 for the plane ride. Too many unknowns here for me.....mainly, which GMEN show up and when.

Hous - Dallas - GuruBob suggests the possibilty of the over. TO isnt talking to our local Pitt boy Todd Haley (his WR coach)....Todd yelled at poor, fragile TO in a meeting...hey TO, at least it wasn't on national TV. Dallas is pissed from last week based on what happened. Will they take it out on Carr??? Will Drew take it out on the Houston D??? Will Bill get up 28-0 and run the clock out with Barber??? Dallas could cover this over on their own, then again they might score 35, run the ball, kick a FG or two and shut out Hous.

Cinci -TB - Over 44 you say GuruBob....interesting indeed. TB is the 30th ranked rush D in the league, Cincy is the 27th.....not good when you got two O's that love to run the ball. TB finally got the O moving last week with the rookie at QB. Team rallied behind Cadillac to get his engine running. Look for that to continue vs the horrible Bengals run D. TB ranks 7th in pass D but the only O they have played that can pass the ball is Carolina who scored 26 on them. Cincy's well balanced on O. TB hasn't won a game and will have a game plan in place to put up points to keep up with Cincy's O. I look for points in this one.

Philly-NO - Over 46. When was the last time anyone suggested taking the over in a game involving the Saints? Is this nuts to even consider? Duece is pounding the ball, Bush is on pace to break a record or two and is dangerous anywhere with the ball, some guy Colston is going deep, Brees is proving his worth at QB and old man Horn hasn't even gotten started. Philly's D IS beat up, their secondary is a weakness and even SF scored 24 on them. Giants put up 30 in an OT victory over Philly and Dallas put up 24 (would have been more without the errors)....other than the unimpressive Hous and GB, PHilly has been scored on. Philly ranks 28th in time of possession....they score quick, don't run long extended drives. If you give Brees and his weapons time to wear down your D-line and sting your weak secondary I think you have a shootout.

Seatt -3 STL - STL finally broke out on O the last two weeks vs GB and Detroit....unimpressed. They are 4-1 but beating GB, Det, AZ and squeaking one out week 1 vs Den doesn't do much for me. Seattle off a bye week after getting embarassed by Chicago on the road seems to be a team you just know will win. The ONLY question here is how big a deal is Shaun? Vs STL, I don't think much of a big deal....I didn't look at this one much initially but its growing on me.

Miami-Jets over 36.5 - This is a game of interest based purely on how bad the Jets D has been. Seems like a recipe for a Miami O to get on track BUT they couldnt get on track vs. Hous or TN so should we think this is their week? Maybe with Joey running the O it could be. Something to think about and consider.

SD -9.5 SF - SD is very good. They're D is very good. SF is a tough team to figure out....sometimes they show up and sometimes they don't. They beat Oak....there's a surprise, GuruBob, me, and any 9 friends playing both sides of the ball could beat Oak. Could SD let down after a HUGE win vs the Steelers? This is my only concern.

Den -14.5 Oak - Oak has packed it in for the year. The QB can't get the ball to Moss even if he wanted it, Porter has been suspended for 4 games. The only team they didn't lose by 2 TDs to has been Clev at home. Will Moss show up just to show his trade suitors he still wants to play or is he too busy relaxing to worry about that? Will Den have a hangover from Monday night? I hate a big spread with a monday night hangover.

Look for official picks tomorrow.

America's Most Wanted

2006-10-14T10:24:00.000-04:00

Calling all cars!! Calling all cars!! The bookies are trying to hunt Lotion down. He is DEMOLISHING bookmakers like Al Roker does to an All-You-Can-Eat dinner buffet. There is not a prognosticator in America hotter than Lotion and you punks are getting this for Free!! Lotion is 6-1 or 85% for the number challenged. For the first time this year, Lotion hates the entire card and probably would stay away this weekend. But Lotion knows he has you girls hooked on his picks like a drug so he will feed your fix again this weekend. Last week, one of Lotion's followers said, "It was like you put the write-up on the board after the game". Go back and read last weeks and see how scary good Lotion is. As Always, Stick with the Program......it is the ONLY way to make cheese!

TOP PICK: Kent State -7.5

Lotion looked at another MAC game - Central Michigan, but this one took the cake. Lotion loves teams going in the opposite direction and that is the case here. Toledo started strong this year but due to some injuries.....they have been getting pounded recently. Kent on the other hand is playing their best football of the year. Kent will be in the MAC Championship and has a legitimate shot of winning it. Here is all that needs said about this game.....Toledo needs to pass to win, Kent has one of the best pass defenses in America.......Kent may be the hottest offense in the country and Toledo is swiss cheese. This is going to get UGLY. Lotion just rolling right now and so is Kent. Lotion on his way to 7-1!! Take Kent and lay the points.

Week 6 - Who is going to take their licks?

2006-10-12T15:09:00.000-04:00

Slightly new format for this week...I am going to post my selections...GuruJoe will tell me where I am nuts and where I am genius...then we will bring your official picks by Sunday morning. Coming into this week, the deficit was reduced to negative 6.5 Stars...all I have to say is thank God the Lotion is here to keep us looking respectable...let's take a look at what nuggets we can find this week...

Buffalo @ Detroit

Pig pillow fight...not much of a football game...Detroit is horrible...they lost another offensive lineman...Roy Williams is banged up...this doesn't look good. The good news is that Just Punt Losman (BTW, I love GuruJoe for coming up with that one) and the down trodden Bills are coming to town. Spikes and Clements are hobbled...could this be the week the Cowardly Lions get off the schneid? If you can figure this one out, please let me know because we need your help at gridiron_gurus.

I imagine the line would be a pick em game after the Bills got demolished last week or the Bills as a small favorite. The total probably will be between 39 - 41...clearly a do not touch game for this guru...

"The Man" has Buffalo favored by 1.5 and the total at 40...Detroit games have gone over the number in four games in a row...any chance that happens again GuruJoe? Interesting based on how bad Detroit's D is...

Carolina @ Baltimore

To say the Baltimore offense is struggling who would be like say Corey Lidle was in a minor accident...averaging about 11 points the past three weeks. McNairs arm looks like it needs to be in a boot. Jamal is running more like Forrest Gump with the braces on his legs than after. The WR's are just not very good and apparently McNair forgot about the Wycheck days as Todd Heap has been non-existent. Their D, however, still looks very strong. The Panthers meanwhile have won every game with Steve Smith back...averaging over 20 points a game...their D hasn't been too shabby either lately giving up under 20/game. This should be a defensive struggle...

I personally like the Panthers to win this game and believe they should be favorites by about4 or 5...I just think they have too much for the Baltimorons...I am guessing this will be a low total in the 34ish range.

"The Man" has Baltimore favored by 3 and the total at 33.5...someone please explain this one to me...Baltimore has beaten no one...Carolina has won three in a row with Steve Smith...I love Carolina in this spot...both teams ahve combined to go under in 9 of their 10 games...this is intriguing, but ultimately a little too low for my liking...

G-men @ Hot Lanta

The G-men got their act together long enough to outlast the SKins and play a ball control type game last week...Hot Lanta comes into this game off a bye week with the number one rushing offense in the league...looks like the big key here is whether the G-men will be able to control the rushing attack and contain Vick...the key will be the super fast Giants DE's not over pursuing and allowing Vick to get inside them...of course, this will also hurt their pass rush as neither has been know to have a great bull rush. The Falcons appeared to get healthier in the bye week...Abraham, Gandy, Forney and others all appear as though they are going to play...the true question mark is Hartwell with his creaky knees.

Hot Lanta should be favored by about 4 and the total around 41...Atlanta's rush defense has been vastly approved this year and they boast one of the best CB's in the league...I like Atlanta in this game, but the powerful offense of the G-men is enough to scare me away...

"The Man" has Hot Lanta favored by 3 and the total at 41.5...I like Atlanta, but ultimately I would stay away unless GuruJoe can talk me into it...

Houston @ Dallas

Houston is coming off a bye week...Dallas a beating in Philly...TO is not talking to WR coach...The Tuna is done talking about TO...and I think Drew is upset about his O-line...and you thought Dallas was a good soap opera...this team is ready for prime time...the good news is that Houston is coming to town...Houston is expected to have Peek and Faggins on the sidelines...that is not good for a defense that is not very good...maybe Mario Williams will have his break out game...or maybe they will continue to regret picking Reggie Bush.

Dallas should be double digit favorites and the total around 44. I would not touch this line, though I think Dallas should win handily...just too many points for a team coming off a bye and another with the circus going full tilt.

"The Man" has Dallas giving 13 and the total around 43...if forced, I would pick Dallas and over, but ultimately a stay away game...however, Dallas has gone over every game this year...is that a trend worth putting your money on?

Tennessee @ Skins

TN stinks...they are lucky that Indi can't stop the run. The Skins have been up and down...they put up 30 points on the vaunted Jax defense then score a whopping 3 points against the Giants...nothing like the 29th ranked defense coming to town to cure that problem...Vince Young will continue to make plays with his legs, but he better start with his arm soon enough...

The Skins should be favored by about 10 and the total of about 43...I like the Skins to rebound, but I am not sure if the game in Indi was a fluke or the Titans getting heart...I want to think it a fluke, but it did just enough to scare me off this game...

"The Man" has the Skins giving 10.5 and the total at 38.5...that total looks a little low, but the bad TN offense scares me enough to stay away...

Cinci @ TB

Gradkowski moved the ball and didn't make any rookie mistakes...in fact, he looked pretty good...and Cadillac got the engines revving again. Cinci comes into this game very short handed...Thurman and Henry suspended...Jackson and Jeanty were downgraded to doubtful...remember, this is the team that has given up almost 400 yards rushing in the last two games combined...is it time for TB to get off the schneid?

I am guessing that Cinci is favored by about two and the total around 41...the over is intriguing to me as neither defense has been particularly stifling this year...personally, I think TB gets off the Schneid, but it will not be an official pick.

"The Man" has Cinci giving 5.5 and the total at 44...I don't like the line, but the over is still interesting...Cinci has gone over the past three games and TB has gone over in two games in a row...GuruJoe, help me out here...

Philly @ NO

Philly comes off another impressive win against the Cowboys. The Eagles are soaring high...scoring over 30 in the last three games. The Aints continue to impress...Deuce continues to pound away...Reggie is getting his 15 - 20 touches a game and showing why the Texans should have drafted him...and Brees is just not making mistakes.

Philly will be a road favorite by about 2 or 3 and the total should be around 43...I like the over if it is in the low forties...I won't buck the trend of Philly scoring 30...and NO should be able to put some points on the board as well...I actually like Philly, but that fired up home crowd scares me...ultimately, I would stay away from the line.

"The Man" has Philly giving 3 and the total at 46.5...forget about the line...Philly is averaging over 30 points in its past 3 games...can NO score 17?

Seattle @ St. Louis

If Seattle loses this one, then hopes of repeating as division champs would diminish...they would be 1.5 games behind and a loss on agains the leader...Seattle will be without reigning MVP Shaun Alexander. Lucky for them, the Rams defense won't be confused any time soon with that of the Bears...they are in the bottom third in against both the run and pass. The Hawks need to rebound after that whoopin' in Chicago. Branch is expected to start and Jeramy Stevens looks to get back on the field since the Super Bowl...which they lost in case you missed it...this should open the offense up a little.

I am guessing the Hawks will be favored by about 3 and the total in the mid-forties...St. Louis squeaked by GB, AZ, and Detroit in the past three weeks...I think they will learn early that the Hawks are a little better than the likes of these bottom feeders...GuruJoe, why shouldn't we be on the Hawks? The over is also intriguing to me...

"The Man" has Seattle giving 3 and the total at 44.5...I am still interested by the Hawks as the Rams victories have been less than impressive to me...the total looks about right...I would trend to the over, but ultimately would stay away in case a real team can hld St. Louis in check.

Miami @ NYJ

I guess all that heart we discussed about Chad and Coles got stabbed...or maybe cat bitten is more appropriate. The Jags stifled them all game and never let up. The Fins meanwhile continue to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year (in this humble Gurus opinion). Joey actually moved the offense decently but had two drive killing INT's...could this just be the rust from lack of action (that is the excuse I use for my wife anyway)? The problem is the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets rush defense has more holes in it than OJ's alibi...the Fins game plan to date has been to run Ronnie and keep running him...if Joey doesn't make mistakes, then this will be a close one.

The J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets should be favored by about 6 and the total should be in the high 30's...not knowing which J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets team is going to show up or which Joey will show up...that is enough for me to stay away.

"The Man" has the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets giving 2.5 and the total at 36.5..Miami is 0 - 5 against the spread this year...is that a trend worth jumping on, GuruJoe? The total looks a little low to me, but all but one of Miami's games have gone under...the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets meanwhile have gone over every game...sounds like a wash to me...

KC @ The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers

The fact that LJ looks like he is going to play aftrer nearly losing his head...literally...is amazing. The problem is that no one runs on the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers
and that means this game is on the arm of Damon Huard. The bad news for the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers is that Joey Porter, DeShea Townsend and Kendall Simmons are most likely out. The good news is that DeShea will be replaced by Bryant McFadden, who might actually be better. Kendall will be replaced by Chris Kemoeatu and that might not be a bad thing either. The O-line has struggled and many have pointed to Simmons as the biggest part of the problem. He almost lost his job in training camp to Kemo (I am very happy to have a Kemo playing). The biggest issue is Porter, because his #1 backup James Harrison is also out. I am guessing the Chiefs will run to the left often.

I thought this game would be a pick em game, but heard the Steelers are giving close to 7...I wouldn't touch this line...I can't believe a 1 - 3 team would be giving 7, but I am not betting on Huard against this defense on the road...he will quickly learn the difference between the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers and AZ and SF...the total should be in the mid-30's and I think the over might be the call, but let's see what it is...

"The Man" has the Steelers giving 6.5 and the total at 37...ultimately, I stay away from this game...

SD @ SF

I am offiicially on the Philip Rivers bandwagon...not to mention that defense...they are ranked #1 in every category...and now they face a SF line with a new left side due to injuries to Allen and Jennings...that doesn't bode well for "Small Hands" Smith...

SD should be favored by about a TD and the total will be in the mid-30's...I can't see SD not scoring at least 30 themselves, but will Smith be able to lead SF to a score...I think SD could be a play depending on the final line...the total is a stay away because of that SD defense...

"The Man" has SD giving 9.5 and the total at 42.5...this total looks way too high...in addition, I am beginning to convince myself of SD as a play...SF plays decent against mediocre to bad teams and gets demolished against good teams...why would this be any different...I would stay away from the total, but this game looks like the TN game from three weeks prior...i.e. a huge win by SD...

Oakland @ Denver

Jerry Porter suspended...Randy Moss on the trading block...no QB that can do anything...they are bad. Denver meanwhile just survived a slobber knocker with the Baltimorons on Monday night...Oakland will do nothing on the Denver D. Denver will dominate every aspect of this game...

I am guessing Denver will be favored between 13 - 15 and the total in the high 30's to low 40's...I can't see Denver not winning this game by 21...the under might be a play because we all know there is nothing Mike Shanahan would love more than shutting out the Raiders...

"The Man" has Oakland getting 14.5 and the total at 36...I would stay away from this low total because who knows what Oakland will do offensively, but Oakland is really bad...Oakland is 0-4 against the spread...that is a trend I like...I might recommend buying that half point to ensure no back door cover, but I still don't see Denver winning by less than 3 TD's...

Chicago @ AZ

Chicago has clearly put themselves as the beast of the NFC and quite honestly the NFL...the Defense has given up 30 less points than the great Bears D of 1985...Rex and team has the offense clicking. The Cards offensive line is bad...Fitzgerald is hurt...and Leinart is still the starter...I think Leinart will be a fine QB in this league, but he has not seen a defense like this ever...remember he played in the PAC 10, which has no defense.

Chicago should be favored by at least a TD on the road and the total in the range of 36 - 38...I don't see this runaway freight train stopping this week. GuruJoe, please talk me out of the over and Chicago...

"The Man" has Chicago giving 11 and the total at 39...I would not touch the over based on a rookie QB facing this D, but I still am liking the Bears...stay tuned Monday to see if it is an official pick...

GuruJoe, give us your thoughts...

Time to put up or shut up - Week 6 key games

2006-10-11T14:48:00.000-04:00

Here are the key games that the Gurus see this coming weekend:

Seattle @ St. Louis

Seattle is a half game behind the Rams for the division lead. Seattle is coming off a much needed bye week. Unfortunately for them (and our fantasy football teams) Shaun Alexander does not look like he is going to play. Maurice Morrise and Mack Strong will have to carry the load again. Fortunately for the Hawks, the Rams rush defense cannot be confused with that of the Bears, yielding 120+ yards per game on the ground. If Noah Herron can rush for 105 yards, then this tandem should do just fine. The Hawks also appear ready to let Deion Branch get more involved in the offense and welcome the return of Super Bowl bust Jeramy Stevens. Both should aid in opening the offense against a bottom third D. This will be the Rams test to determine if they are contenders or pretenders. I am not too impressed with victories over GB, Detroit, and AZ...the Denver victory to start the season surprised me, but the Denver offense clearly hadn't gotten warmed up. This game is much more important to St. Louis than Seattle as they need this to keep their confidence as well as increase their lead. They need to knock off the defending champs.

Philly @ NO

NO has beaten one impressive victory and a whole lot of nothing...Philly meanwhile is one bad quarter of football from being undefeated. This game pits these division leaders against each other. This game is huge as NO is now beyond the cupcake portion of their schedule. The next few weeks are key and a victory at home against a tough opponent could help boost their confidence going into the stretch. Philly meanwhile hasn't beaten much better opponents aside from Dallas this past week...and I am not sure that Dallas didn't beat themselves more than Philly beating them. This game puts both of these teams in solid position for a playoff run as they will be 5 - 1 and going 5-5 the rest of the way probably will be good enough to get into the NFL second season.

G-strings @ Atlanta

The G-men and Atlanta both need this game. This could end up being a tie breaker down the line for a wild card berth. Atlanta needs to win to keep pace with the Aints and stay ahead of the Panthers. The G-men are in the most competitive division (note I did not say best) in football. Every loss in this division is devastating. They need to get their house in order and the best way to do so is winning. I ma not sure how long Vick can continue running the way he has without getting hurt. His game is much better when he uses his legs, but his long-term health definitely takes a hit, no pun intended.

Carolina @ Baltimore

I have been saying that Baltimore is the worst 4 - 0 team in the NFL and maybe ever. They have a great D and no offense. Baltimore got beat at its own game on Monday and it was a physical game. The plane had to make an emergency stop in Pittsburgh to take a guy off the plane. The team didn't get back to Baltimore until 6 a.m. This doesn't sound so good coming into a game against another very physical D. The difference is the Panthers actually have an offense that is getting better by the week...coincidentally Steve Smith keeps getting healthier. Baltimore comes into a stretch where 6 of its next 8 opponents have winning records...they are 3 - 0 against the likes of TB, Oak, and Cleve...and escaped with a win against SD and then got pounded by Denver...again a very important stretch for a team that is not nearly as good as its record.

Cinci @ TB

I know I said key matchups. Cinci is 3 -1 and coming off a bye...TB is 0-5...why in the world is this game being discussed? Well, I hate the Bungles...that is why and I want to show why they are overrated. The Bucs have showed some life of late playing Carolina and NO down to the wire. Gradkowski had a good first game. Cadillac finally got it in gear. The last we saw the Bengals, they were busy allowing teams to run all over them like a thief from a crime scene. Cinci also continues to lose players to prison and suspension (Thurman now gone for the year and Henry for 2 games). After this game, Cinci's next 5 games face 4 of the top 15 rushing teams and the Ravens, who actually play Defense. This stretch is going to be tough. If Cadillac can get his wheels moving and Gradkowski can avoid mistakes like he did during most of the Aints game, they could be in trouble...the schedule only gets tougher.

KC @ The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers

Finally, we come to my personal game of the week. Yes, the Guru brothers will be in attendance. They have a designated driver. We will be fired up. The Chiefs come in beat up with Green and Hall expected to miss the game and LJ with a sore neck. This will be the first decent rush defense the Chiefs will have faced (save maybe Denver). Huard has looked good, but it has been against AZ and SF. I don't expect him to maintain that level of play this weekend. KC needs this game to keep pace in the AFC West. Now onto the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers...Big Ben has looked more like Gentle Ben than his former Super Bowl winning self. The O-line got beat up badly at SD by Jamal Williams. The WR's can't catch a cold. Joey Porter needs to be shot in the arse again. Troy needs a new shoulder. DeShea Townsend needs to grow 8 inches. And Ryan Clark needs to realize he is a safety who needs to tackle and not a battering ram. Other than that, the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are fine. Bill Cowher was mad enough to make the team show up after the SD game just a few hours after landing Monday morning. Before any of you clowns tell me the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are done, note that 19 teams have come from 1-3 records to make the playoffs since 1982...and the Steelers have done it twice. I truly believe the ship will be righted and we will get on a run. Maybe I am just an optimistic homer (not homo), but we have shown enough signs. We dominated Cinci and lost by 8 with 5 turnovers. We dominated the first half against SD and then lost it the second half. We went punch for punch with Jax on the road before finally getting knocked out...none of these losses are horrible losses. Now we need to start winning some of these games and what better time than when the Guru Brothers are there cheering them on.

Putting your neck on the line...

2006-10-10T12:49:00.000-04:00

The Gurus have a positive week...bringing our season total to down 6.5 stars...we are getting primed for another big week as the discussions have already started...but first let's look at last week...

Larry Johnson had the scariest moment of week five as he was brought down with a face mask after a long reception. He laid on the ground motionless for several minutes. He reported to work on Tuesday wit a sore neck...good for the Chiefs bad for my Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Larry Fitzgerald will miss2 - 5 weeks with a hammy...this offense keeps getting scarier...Leinart was efficient and spectacular at times...Bryant Johnson didn't help by dropping a pass in the endzone. Overall, their O-line still stinks, but Leinart looked good.

I told you JP sucked and they would lose big...this is the kind of loss that could wear on for weeks...they were decimated...luckily, they face the Lions this week...

Chicago is the team to beat right now...as long as Grossman still guides the team the way he has, they will be tough to beat...they do it all...like a $2 whore...the defend, run and pass...this team is for real.

Poor Brett...in FG range and he fumbles the ball...is there anyone in GB that doesn't want Brett traded or to retire to hand the reigns over to Rogers? Come on...let me hear from you...you need to find out what the youngster can do...you are not making the playoffs any time soon if you don't...BTW, how has Koren stayed sober in GB...there is nothing to do there but drink...trust me I have been there several times and I know...

The Colts almost gave away the easiset game on their schedule...I guess they thought TN sucked too...and they do, but you still must show up and play...and more importantly tackle someone...this team will not be in the Super Bowl until that D gets in shape...

Vince clearly wasn't given anything to prove anything in this game...run...run...and then run some more...that was the game plan...BTW, speaking of necks...is that Coach Fisher's neck I see on the chopping block? I don't know why, but it appears he might be in danger.

Old Man Johnson and the Purple People Eaters escaped an almost second embarassing loss...this team better get on track offensively...the D has been solid, but the Old Man has done nothing...may be it is time for him to go to sea...(get it...Old Man and the Sea??)

The Lions I think are trying to get into the Brady Quinn bowl...not sure they can beat Oakland though...this team had a horrible draft...a horrible decade...hell, I'll go as far as say existence...I want to know who Matt Millen has pictures of...and I want to see them...

The Fins get my award thus far for the biggest disappointment...you knew TN, Oak, GB, Det., and Cleve were going to be bad...but this team is horrible. Their one victory came against the worse Titans, by 3 points...I guess I got caught up in the Daunte hype...

The Pats keep getting it done Sweatshirt Bill has the team believing...still...I still don't understand letting Branch go, but I am only a blogger...

Reggie picked a fine time to score his first TD...are the Saints for real? The combined record of the teams they have beaten are 5 - 13...we will find out soon as they face Philly, Baltimore, Pitt, Cinci, Atlanta...500 is not out of the quesiton, but I still wouldn't bet on seeing them in the post season.

Gradkowski looked decent in his debut...good enough to wonder if Simms will definitely get the job upon his return to health...Cadillac also found his form from last year...maybe this is starting to turn around in TB...probably too late in that division for a playoff run though...

The Skns good fortune on offense finally halted...the G-men just outmanned them this past weekend...of course, this is no surprise based on the past...that just means the Skins will win by 20 in Washington...you heard it hear first...neither team did much offensively...

This just in: Cleveland sucks...The Panthers won again with Steve Smith in the lineup...he is getting real close to getting my MVP vote...although I don't have one...I was a little shocked that the Cleveland D played so well...but that offense is horrible...I am just not convinced that Charlie Frye, even with a better supporting cast, will be any good in this league...

This just in: The Raiders swallow...well they have to do something worse than Cleveland...they have no D...their O is horrible...they have no heart...their star is starting to rumble...the next earthquake in CA might be in Oakland...SF, like most other teams looked good agaisnt them...and remember they were coming off a 40 point shut out by the Chiefs...yikes...

What is green and white with holes all over it? Yep, the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets run defense...how do you give up 140 yards passing and lose by 40? Throw three INT's then lay down...Chad had his worst outing of the season...but that seems to happen alot against Jax...Anyone wonder how the Jax D will do without Peterson? How many more blows can this team take before it crumbles?

The circus is over...and this game looked like one...fumble, blocked kicks, int's oh my...I am going to give credit where it is due...GuruJoe said that Drew can win or lose any game...and that he did...I know the O-line has more holes in it that a druggies right arm, but he is a veteran and should not make those mistakes...I also want to throw a little props out to Marion Barber who was the only Comboy that didn't give up on the play and tried to tackle Lito...TO looked like he was going to implode...the time bomb is ticking...poor WR coach...

Don't look now, but Philly has a commanding lead in the NFC Beast...I told you this team would come back...it has done even better than I expected.

My poor Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers...Big Ben keeps making mistakes...the O-line has decided it doesn't want to block...and the WR's stink...the D played ok, but still could not get a game changing play or stop...I am the ultimate optimist and believe they will bounce back and make the playoffs, but they better start this week...

Mr. Rivers, I apologize...you aren't as bad as I thought. You are ready for prime time...yes, that is my tail between my legs...the SD D is very good...I am putting these guys on the dangerous team list, but I am still not completely a believer...

Denver just asked Ray Lewis and the Ravens: who's your daddy? The Broncos kicked them in the mouth...then stomped on their head...then peed on them...tight defensive battle and finally Air McNair couldn't pull off the comeback...great defensive game...

Week 5 $$$$ - here it is

2006-10-08T11:12:00.000-04:00

Carolina - 7.5 - 2 Stars
Bears - 10 - 4 Stars - lead pipe lock
Dallas +2 - 2 Stars

See the other write-up for the details...

Note: the Carolina line was -7.5 when I finally put the pick in...

NFL Week 5

2006-10-08T10:45:00.000-04:00

No, it is not Monday morning while you make the drive to freedom, it is the weekly write-up…I just couldn't be satisfied with a positive week as I had to add the over in Philly/GB…of course, there are numerous reasons it should have hit, but it didn't…there numerous reasons MN should have won at Buffalo, but they didn't…we don't make excuses…we usually make money…we are now down…10.3 stars on the year…believe it or not, this will become positive before it is all said and done...

Miami @ NE

Boy is Miami bad…they squeeze…and yes it was a tighter squeeze than a baby through coming into this world…by TN at home…they lose to Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Houston…the combined record of these teams is well below 500…they can't run…Daunte can barely get the ball to Ronnie Brown to hand it off…meanwhile, every had a knife stuck in NE and all they do is go on the road and kick the snot out of the Bungles…not looking good for Miami…

NE should be favored by more than a TD and the total should be in the high 30's…if NE is favored by less than a TD, then we definitely will look at this one further…

"The Man" has NE giving 9.5 and the total at 37…this is just too many points in a division rivalry game…

GuruJoe: Miami is horrible, Dante has a sore shoulder and they have no OL. NE should be able to run on them and kill Dante but 9.5 is alot of points as Saban wants to show his mentor something. Intriguing indeed but too close.

TB @ NO

TB has to throw Gradkowski into the fire…he won the backup job early in training camp as he impressed Chuckie (aka Gruden). To top it off, Kenyatta Walker gets placed on IR…and this O-line wasn't too good before that…it could be a long day for Bruce…NO meanwhile continues to surprise somewhat. We thought they had enough talent on offense to compete, but their D has been better than expected. I still don't see them making the playoff, but this win will put them at 4 - 1 with a shot…after this home game though the schedule gets a lot more difficult.

NO will be favored by about 5 - 7…you can't touch this game based on the new QB…could he actually be better than Simms? The total will be in the mid-30's…I would like to see what Bruce can do before I start taking the Bucs…or going against them

"The Man" has NO favored by 6.5 and the total at 35…I think NO probably covers this one, but Bruce may be ready to show he belongs in the NFL…stay away...

Skins @ NYG

Skins have played a couple of nice games in a row…is it coincidence that Portis has been healthy in these games? I think not…Brunell has also learned the value of finding Santana Moss again and again and again…NYG meanwhile is facing some internal turmoil…everyone hates Coughlin…Shockey is a big mouth…Burress has no heart…Emmons is out, which will make stopping Portis that much harder. This game is a big divisional game…and huge in the standings as the G-men don't want to go to 1 - 3 and the Skins would prefer to be 3 - 2 than the opposite…

I am guessing the G-men will be a small favorite and the total will be in the low 40's…the over is intriguing here as both teams can score…and neither can cover the pass…I think I said this on Monday too…and damnit I should have won…

"The Man" has the G-spots giving 4.5 and the total at 45.5…4.5 points seems like a lot of points to be giving in a division game, without your starting LB, with your team hating your coach, and it took a miracle to win the one game you did win…the Skins meanwhile spent last week getting a big win against the Jags and also getting their heads pounded in…in the last 8 games, only 2 of them would have gone over this number…also, only 2 games in this stretch have been less than FG games…ultimately, all this makes me stay away from this game...

Detroit @ MN

Detroit is terrible…again…MN is playing not to lose with lots of penalties…Roy Williams is trying to get his brother Mike on the field (yes I know they are not brothers)...with no guarantee from Roy there isn't much to say…

MN will be favored by about 5…total in the mid-30's…the under is intriguing, but Detroit is talking about opening it up and getting the offense going…Detroit is giving up 28 points a game, but none of those games have been against an offense as inept as the Vikes…

"The Man" has this line at 6.5 and the total at 40.5…all of MN games have gone under this year, while 3 of Detroit's 4 games have gone over. The reason for those overs is the opponents scoring at will…Detroit is only scoring 17 points a game…and those have come lately against GB and St. Louis…I see this one staying low…GuruJoe, doesn't this total look high to you?

GuruJoe: Over 40.5 Minny and Det. Minny is average and Detroit's D is horrible. What can an average team do to a horrible D??? Wake up and tear it apart. Detroit woke up a bit on O last week and I just to worried about how bad Detroit's D is. Giving up over 30 points in 3 straight games is not a good sign in taking them with an over play.

Cleveland @ Carolina

Could the big comeback be just want Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ordered? I would say maybe, but now they have to go face the Panthers…who are starting to hit their stride as Steve Smith gets healthier every week…Carolina's D is playing very well. I don't see Cleveland staying in this one…

Carolina should be favored by 8 or 9 and the total in the mid-30's…ultimately I probably wouldn't touch it, but let's see what the line is…Carolina is intriguing…

"The Man" has Carolina giving 8 and the total at 37.5…Carolina is still calling my name as their offense continue to get on track and I am not impressed with Cleveland's lone win of the season in Oakland...

GuruJoe: Car -8 Clev - The ONLY thing that scares me here is a cheap pass here or there to Braylon Edwards for a TD. I can't see how Car doesn't win this game by 10-14 points now that they are clicking.

Buffalo @ Chicago

Go Under…Buffalo's D has been very good thus far…they are giving up an average of only 16 points a game…Just Punt will not score on the Bears who are giving up just over a TD/game…Buffalo will get nothing done on offense, so it comes down to what the Bears can do on offense…

I am guessing the Bears will be favored by about 10…and the total around 33…this game will be a 24 - 7 game…if Buffalo is lucky enough to score in junk time…the Bears want to show they are the best team in the NFL…let's see what the line truly is, but the under and Bears is very tempting on the line I have listed…

"The Man" has the Bears giving 10 and the total at 34.5 points…Chicago has beaten their opponents by an average of 21 points this season…I love the Bears here and the under is very intriguing to me…the only question is how many defensive TD's will they score…and will that throw it over...

GuruJoe: Jauron has this D playing pretty well but Chicago is the real deal. Who would have thought a year ago that the Bears would be favored by 10 vs anyone. Just Punt is going to struggle in this game. He could hand Chicago 14 points on a platter. The Bills have played NE, Miami, Jets and Minny......nobody of the caliber on either side of the ball as they are going to see on Sunday. After the sunday night victory vs Seattle, the windy city is fired up and Just Punt wont know what hit him.

St. Louis @ GB

Go Over…St. Louis has the offense working nicely…well at least for one week after giving up on the running show…I really expect Linehan to learn that you can set up the run by passing…GB is not very good…Favre has lost it…he looked horrible on Monday night…of course, it is hard to look good with no talent around you…

St. Louis should be a road favorite by 6 and the total around 45…the Rams and the over are intriguing…we shall see what "the man" has to say…

"The Man" has the Rams giving a small 3 and the total at 46.5…the Packers haven't turned the ball over less than 2 times in each of its first four games…the Rams meanwhile have been ball hawks on D…I still like the Rams and the over…GuruJoe, are we beyond talking about Favre's magic...

GuruJoe: I don't get this very much. Favre is done. This team is ready to move on but can't because Lord Favre won't step down. The Rams lost to SF but are 3-1 and keeping pace with Seattle for possibly a surprise run.....they don't want to lose a gimme and GB won't be able to stop them.

If I thought GB's offense could score I'd like this but after the monday night game I'm not sure about any magic left for Favre. Not worth the bet to me. We are looking for guarantees and Favre could put up 10 or 30....I don't bet on coin tosses and I'm not betting on which Favre shows up (still like the Rams -3).

TN @ Indi

Poor TN…Vince Young didn't look horrible…but he has nothing there…Dallas just manhandled them…I still contend that the stomping was done in hope of being suspended…why put forth the effort on such a bad team…Indi has the O rolling early…the D has not been stellar, but when you have that offense, you don't have to be…

Indi should be favored by about 17 and the total in the mid-40's…let's see what "the man" says, but I hate giving this many points, but TN has lost by more than 30 twice to much lesser offenses than the Colts…

"The Man" has Indi giving 19 and the total at 48…Indi is 3 - 1 against the spread this year and the Titans are 1 - 3…combined the over has hit in 5 of the 8 games these teams have played this year…last year, both games went under similar totals…mainly because the Titans didn't score…I would love to jump on Indi, but the dreaded back door cover scares me here and the total is just too high with that pathetic Titans offense…Indi will score at least 35, but I am not convinced the Titans will score 14…real close on this one...

NYJ @ Jax

Jax may have played the toughest schedule to date and survived thus far with a 2 - 2 record…their D has been very good (I know the Skins scored 30 on them)…Byron continues to show he is a gamer…Chad and crew have exceeded expectations thus far…their D is suspect. I just can't see them winning this road game…

Jags should be favored by about 5 and the total in the mid-30's…I don't think I would touch this game unless something is off…

"The Man" has the Jags giving 7 and the total at 37…stay away game for this guru…although all four of the J.E.T.S. Jets Jets Jets games have gone over, they were certainly against lesser defensive teams than the Jags…and I would never go against that trend, but it should stop eventually right GuruJoe?

GuruJoe: Pennington has shown heart and Jax's D was embarassed last week. I'm not betting on how pissed they could be. 37 seems low but tough one for me to bet on.

Oakland @ SF

If Oakland is going to win a game, this might be it…Houston might be the only other chance on that schedule…Moss is talking trash on the team and coaches…this team is bad…plain and simple…SF is not very good, but they usually play with heart…last week, KC shut them out in Arrowhead…I don't think that will happen again this week…

SF will be favored by about 5…and the total in the high 30's…I wouldn’t touch this game at all…no matter how off the line appears…

"The Man" has SF giving 3.5 and the total at 40.5…I would tend to go with SF and over, but I would rather save my money for the champagne room...

KC @ AZ

The much anticipated debut of Matt Leinart occurs this Sunday…meanwhile, Damon Huard looks to get the start again this week…KC's D has been solid all year…they haven't given up more than 23…the offense has been anemic before this past week, but that was against the 49ers…AZ has no offensive line…zero…negative…do you think Edge misses Indianapolis yet?

I honestly don't know what to think of this line…I would probably put KC at a favorite by about a FG…the total in the mid-40's…with these two QB's I would not touch this game…

"The Man" has KC giving 3 and the total at 39…the Chiefs are only giving up 10 points per game…but this total looks low to me…I just can't bet on Damon Huard being able to score at this point...

Dallas @ Philly

Mommy, Mommy, will you take me to the circus? That's not the circus son, it's just TO…he is ready for the abuse…the fans were fired up last week…the Boys had fun beating up on the Titans last week…but now they will be coming to a hostile environment and a team with a lot more talent…Philly got their act together in the second half against GB, but they paid a price…Reggie Brown is questionable…Stallworth is doubtful…this adds to injuries to Hood, Sheppard, and Westbrook…assuming these guys don't play, then I don't see the Eagles being able to overcome these injuries…

I would guess it is a pick em game and the total in the low 40's…the over is very intriguing to me, but we need to see the health of the Eagles later in the week…

"The Man" has Philly giving TO and the circus 2 and the total at 44…I can't see this game not going over…Philly has given up point to decent offenses and shut down the bad ones…I also can't see Dallas losing this game…GuruJoe, please talk me out of the over and Dallas…or can't you?

GuruJoe: Philly's only real challenge was vs NYG and even they are struggling. McNabb is healthy and this team WANTS this game but ultimately McNabb can't do it himself and his Offense and Defense are hurting. Dallas has weapons on O and a strong D. Dallas should win this game outright with only 2 factors that could scare you away: revenge on Philly's side....what is that really worth once the game starts? Bledsoe....he can singlehandly lose any game if harassed. If he doesn't make mistakes, Dallas has more talent.

Pitt @ SD

The Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers go to SD for a huge game…SD has beaten no one (unless you consider Oakland and TN real teams)…they just got beat by the Ravens on the road…Pittsburgh took their bye week to get Hines Ward healthy…get Big Ben a lot of reps…and get Troy's shoulder healthy…I think this will be a statement game by the Steelers…they will come in and punch SD in the mouth and win outright…I think LT is the best RB in the league, but you will not run against this D…that means Rivers must make a play…and we all know Marty won't let him…I think it is real close, but Big Ben's experience is the difference here…

SD is favored by 2.5 or 3…total should be around 34…under might be the play, but let's see the line first…

"The Man" is giving 3 points to the Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers…and the total is at 37.5…I see this game as being similar to the Jax game and the SD vs. Baltimore game…I think 3 points is too many and the total is too high…this might be an added selection…GuruJoe and I need to discuss this one further...

GuruJoe: Defending Super Bowl Champs are 1-2 after two consecutive losses, had a bye week to prepare and play in prime time. Thats alot of points to give our boys but is our offense really over the mistakes? Is ward really healthy? He says no. Can the other WRs hold the ball? Is Ben over the rust? Was it rust? This still isn't a must win at this stage of the season with 5 division games left but it sure is a statement game for the Steelers. Steelers can stop the run, so can SD. I don't see Marty opening the game up enough to win by more than a FG....if at all.

Baltimore @ Denver

Go under…this game will be very similar to the Steelers @ Jax game…both teams will try to run and run often…and won't have much success…the D's here will dominate…I would be shocked if 21 points are scored in this game…check back for this one…it might be another late release to ruin a positive weekend…Baltimore is giving up an average of 8 points…Denver 10…and neither team is scoring much…Baltimore has averaged 21 points and Denver 12...

Denver will be favored by about 5 and the total around 34…I like under anything higher than 35…there is no way 5 TD's are scored in this game…let's check out the man…

"The Man" has Denver giving 4 and the total at 33.5…I think Baltimore's undefeated record comes to an end…they will not be able to pound the ball with Jamal against the Mules…the under is still looking good to me...

GuruJoe: Balt hasn't moved the ball well in 2 games. Den hasn't moved the ball well all year and they are playing one of the best D's in the league. I hate betting under such small numbers on monday night. One concern is that the defenses are so good they could score....kiss of death to the under.

Lotion coming back strong this week...

2006-10-07T11:09:00.000-04:00

Lotion took it on the chin last week and like his Irish……has fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten in blow-out fashion. Toledo did not show up and the hometown Panthers demolished the Rockets. Well, 5-1 (83%) is still a record to be proud of and Lotion’s hard at work this week to get back on the winning track. Lotion has been very productive this year on college football totals both on this forum and with his paying customers. Time to get back on the Train………..As Always, Stick with the Program……..it is the ONLY way to make $$$$:

TOP PLAY: Wisconsin Over 42.5

Wisconsin finally found a passing game last week and amassed over 300 yards through the air. Had the Badgers been able to throw the ball at all vs. Michigan, maybe they would have pulled the upset. Lotion thinks the Badgers have the weapons to make noise through the air and look for this trend to continue. Everyone knows Wiscy can run the football…..and should be able to rush for 200+ yards in this game. Add the new found passing attack, and Wisconsin may score 43 points themselves in this one. Northwestern has a unique offense that can be very productive at moving the football. Problem is, it has not been this year. Lotion thinks the young Wildcats will get something going on offense and 10 points will be enough to push this game over the total. For those following this series over the years know that crazy things happen when these two teams get together. Expect nothing less this year and do not be shocked if Northwestern hangs around in this game for longer than expected. Let’s just hope they are matching Wiscy score for score if that is the case. Lotion’s paying customers got down on the Wisconsin Over last week. Lotion gonna ride the Badger offensive train while it remains hot.